I still have four Elliott wave counts for you, with altered hourly charts. The short term expected at least some downwards movement for all four wave counts, which is what happened, but only after a very slight new high was made.
Summary: Gold remains in a sideways consolidation phase which began on March 27th. Since price entered the consolidation phase the strongest volume is on down days, indicating that when the breakout comes it may be more likely to be down than up. Volume continues to decline, which often happens towards the end of a consolidation phase. However, the Elliott wave picture remains unclear.
A new high above 1,224.35 is no longer final confirmation that the breakout is upwards, but it would substantially increase the probability of an upwards breakout. The maroon channel on the bear wave count must differentiate the bull and bear wave counts now. If that trend line is breached the bear wave counts should be discarded, and that would provide confidence in the bull wave count.
A new low below 1,184.04 would be a very strong indicator that the breakout is downwards.
Click on charts to enlarge.
To see weekly charts for bull and bear wave counts go here. Wave counts 1 and 2 follow the weekly bull count, wave counts 3 and 4 follow the weekly bear count.
Wave Count #1
So far within cycle wave b there is a 5-3 and an incomplete 5 up. This may be intermediate waves (A)-(B)-(C) for a zigzag for primary wave A, or may also be intermediate waves (1)-(2)-(3) for an impulse for primary wave A. Within cycle wave b primary wave A may be either a three or a five wave structure.
Intermediate wave (A) subdivides only as a five. I cannot see a solution where this movement subdivides as a three and meets all Elliott wave rules. This means that intermediate wave (B) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A) below 1,131.09. Intermediate wave (B) is a complete zigzag. Because intermediate wave (A) was a leading diagonal it is likely that intermediate wave (C) will subdivide as an impulse to exhibit structural alternation. If this intermediate wave up is intermediate wave (3) it may only subdivide as an impulse.
At 1,320 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A), and would probably end at the upper edge of the maroon channel. At 1,429 intermediate wave (C) or (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (A) or (1). If this target is met it would most likely be by a third wave and primary wave A would most likely be subdividing as a five wave impulse.
Within intermediate wave (C) minor wave 2 is today adjusted. It is now seen as a double combination: zigzag – X – triangle. The triangle for minute wave y would be about only halfway through.
1. Combinations are reasonably common structures.
2. On the daily chart MACD is hovering at zero. This sideways chop of the last few days does look like a possible triangle.
3. The upwards wave labelled minute wave x does look like a three on the daily chart.
Within the triangle of minute wave y minuette wave (c) may not move beyond the end of minuette wave (a) below 1,184.04.
If minute wave y is a contracting triangle then minuette wave (d) may not move beyond the end of minuette wave (b) above 1,209.30.
If minute wave y is a barrier triangle then minuette wave (d) should end about the same level as minuette wave (b) at 1,209.30, as long as the (b)-(d) trend line is essentially flat. In practice this means that minuette wave (d) may end slightly above 1,209.30. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.
For this wave count 1 I would expect sideways choppy movement for much of this week. The breakout would be expected to be upwards.
The hourly charts will all show movement since the high at 1,224.35.
This first wave count sees all this movement as a regular contracting or regular barrier triangle. Only waves (a) and (b) are complete, and both subdivide best as single zigzags. This means that one of the remaining sub waves should subdivide into a more complicated and time consuming double, or possibly a triangle to complete a nine wave triangle.
The final wave of the triangle for minuette wave (e) would be most likely to undershoot the (a)-(c) trend line, and less likely to overshoot the (a)-(c) trend line.
Wave Count #2
This wave count is identical to wave count #1 up to the high labelled minor wave 1. Thereafter, instead of minor wave 2 continuing it sees minor wave 2 as complete, within minor wave 3 minute waves i and ii complete, and now within minute wave iii minuette waves (i) and (ii) are also complete.
1. Minute wave ii looks like a clear three wave movement now on the daily chart.
2. Minor wave 3 should show its corrections for minute waves ii and iv clearly on the daily chart.
1. Minute wave ii clearly and strongly breaches the lower edge of a base channel drawn about minor waves 1 and 2, one degree higher.
2. Minute wave ii is twice the duration of minor wave 2 one degree higher.
3. The upwards wave of minute wave i looks like a three on the daily chart, but it should be a five.
Within minute wave iii no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 1,184.04.
Minuette wave (ii) may have completed as a regular flat correction. Within it there is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves a and c.
At 1,304 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.
If minuette wave (ii) continues further sideways as a double flat it may not move beyond the end of minuette wave (i) below 1,184.04.
Wave Count #3
This wave count follows the bear weekly count which sees primary wave 5 within cycle wave a as incomplete. At 957 primary wave 5 would reach equality in length with primary wave 1.
This wave count is today adjusted to see minor wave 2 as an incomplete zigzag, and within minute wave b a close to complete running contracting triangle (Bob’s idea).
When the triangle is complete then the zigzag for minor wave 2 should end with a small wave up for minute wave c. It should find strong resistance at the upper edge of the maroon channel copied over here from the weekly chart. If this maroon trend line is breached again by a full daily candlestick above it and not touching the maroon trend line then this bear wave count should be discarded.
1. The upwards waves of minuette waves (b) and (d) do look like threes on the daily chart. A triangle nicely explains the sideways chop of the last 17 days.
2. MACD supports the idea of a triangle unfolding as it is hovering at the zero line on the daily chart.
1. Minor wave 2 would be much longer in duration than a minor degree second wave normally is for gold.
The triangle of minute wave b may be almost complete and may end within the next 24 hours. Thereafter, an upwards breakout for minute wave c would be extremely likely to move price at least slightly above the end of minute wave a at 1,219.99 to avoid a truncation. Minute wave c may be 0.618 the length of minute wave a at 48 in length.
Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 1,308.10.
Within the triangle one of the sub waves is already a more time consuming complicated double, so the final wave of minuette wave (e) is likely to be a simple zigzag.
Within the final zigzag of minuette wave (e) subminuette wave b may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave a above 1,209.30.
Minuette wave (e) may not move beyond the end of minuette wave (c) below 1,184.07.
Minuette wave (e) would be most likely to undershoot the (a)-(c) trend line, but it may also overshoot the (a)-(c) trend line.
Wave Count #4
This wave count is identical to wave count 3 up to the low labelled minor wave 1. Thereafter, it still sees minor wave 2 as a completed zigzag, and minor wave 3 in its very early stages.
Minute wave ii is now seen as a completed double combination, and this neatly resolves the problem (which was only slight) of a rare running flat.
1. The proportion of minute wave ii still looks right.
2. Upwards movement for Monday absolutely perfectly found resistance at the upper edge of the blue base channel.
3. It is very common for a third wave to begin with a series of overlapping first and second waves.
At 1,059 minor wave 3 would reach equality in length with minor wave 1.
Minute wave ii subdivides perfectly as a double combination: flat – x – zigzag. Combinations are very common structures, and their purpose is to take up time and move price sideways.
The blue base channel is copied over to the hourly chart. Upwards movement perfectly ends when price touched this trend line.
This wave count now expects the middle of a third wave to begin to develop an increase in downwards momentum. The downwards breakout should be imminent. A new low below 1,184.04 would now provide a reasonable amount of confidence in this wave count.
If I had to pick a winner it would still be wave count 4. However, it has too many problems for me to have confidence in it. I would wait for price to indicate which count is correct.
This analysis is published about 06:33 p.m. EST.