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I have the same two Elliott wave counts for GDX. I still favour neither.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX does not appear to have sufficient volume for Elliott wave analysis of this market to be reliable. It exhibits truncations readily, and often its threes look like fives while its fives look like threes. I will let my Gold analysis lead GDX, and I will not let GDX determine my Gold analysis for this reason.

Bull Wave Count

GDX monthly 2014

The bull wave count expects that a five wave impulse is complete for primary wave A down. Within it, the extended wave is intermediate wave (3). There is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (3) and (1), and intermediate wave (5) is 0.98 short of equality in length with intermediate wave (1). (This chart is on a semi log scale).

The channel drawn about primary wave A down is a best fit. The upper edge is still providing resistance. For the bear count (or any variation of it) to be discarded this trend line must be breached. That would provide trend channel confirmation that primary wave A is over and the next wave of primary wave B would then be underway.

Because primary wave A subdivides as a five, primary wave B may not move beyond its start above 64.05.

Primary wave B must subdivide as a corrective structure.

GDX daily 2014

This daily chart shows all of primary wave B so far.

The wave down labelled intermediate wave (X) is 88% of the prior upwards wave of intermediate wave (W). A flat correction can be ruled out for primary wave B, at this stage, because this is less than 90%.

Primary wave B may be unfolding as a double zigzag. The first zigzag in the double labelled intermediate wave (W) is complete. The double is joined by a three in the opposite direction, a zigzag labelled intermediate wave (X) which is also now complete. The second zigzag in the double is underway labelled intermediate wave (Y).

The purpose of the second zigzag in a double (and the third in a rare triple) is to deepen the correction when the first (and second) zigzag does not move price deep enough. To achieve this purpose the second (and third) zigzag moves substantially beyond the end of the first (and second). Intermediate wave (Y) may be expected to move substantially above the end of intermediate wave (W) at 23.22.

Within intermediate wave (Y) minor wave A is a complete leading contracting diagonal. Minor wave B is most likely an incomplete expanded flat. I am not labelling minor wave B over at the low of minute wave a, that looks to be too brief.

Minor wave B may end closer to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave A about 18.46.

Thereafter, a five wave structure up (very likely to be an impulse) for minor wave C may be very long.

Bear Wave Count

GDX monthly alternate 2014

While price continues to find strong resistance at the upper black trend line of this channel this bear wave count must be considered alongside the bull wave count for GDX.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 23.22.

GDX daily 2014

Minute wave ii is now very likely complete. It is shorter in duration than minor wave 2 one degree higher.

A new low below 17.29 would at this stage invalidate the bull wave count and provide confirmation for this bear wave count.

This bear wave count expects a third wave down to begin to gather momentum.