Downwards movement has increase the probability of the alternate bear Elliott wave count. I still have two Elliott wave counts, one bull and one bear.
Summary: Both wave counts expect a little more downwards movement to most likely complete a five down (I have an alternate hourly chart which sees the five down now complete). Thereafter, both wave counts expect upwards movement: the bear count for a second wave correction which may not move above 1,215.20 and the bull wave count for a third wave up which must move above 1,224.35.
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To see weekly charts for bull and bear wave counts go here.
Bull Wave Count
The bull wave count sees primary wave 5 and so cycle wave a a complete five wave impulse on the weekly chart. In order for members to judge for themselves I will list all points for and against for bull and bear wave counts.
1. The size of the upwards move labelled here intermediate wave (A) looks right for a new bull trend at the weekly chart level.
2. The downwards wave labelled intermediate wave (B) looks best as a three.
3. The small breach of the channel about cycle wave a on the weekly chart would be the first indication that cycle wave a is over and cycle wave b has begun.
1. Within intermediate wave (3) of primary wave 5 (now off to the left of this chart), to see this as a five wave impulse requires either gross disproportion and lack of alternation between minor waves 2 and 4 or a very rare running flat which does not subdivide well.
2. Intermediate wave (5) of primary wave 5 (left hand side of the chart) has a count of seven which means either minor wave 3 or 5 looks like a three on the daily chart.
3. Expanding leading diagonals are are not very common.
Within cycle wave b primary wave A may be either a three or a five wave structure. So far within cycle wave b there is a 5-3 and an incomplete 5 up. This may be intermediate waves (A)-(B)-(C) for a zigzag for primary wave A, or may also be intermediate waves (1)-(2)-(3) for an impulse for primary wave A.
Intermediate wave (A) subdivides only as a five. I cannot see a solution where this movement subdivides as a three and meets all Elliott wave rules. This means that intermediate wave (B) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A) below 1,131.09. That is why 1,131.09 is final confirmation for the bear wave count at the daily and weekly chart level.
Intermediate wave (B) is a complete zigzag. Because intermediate wave (A) was a leading diagonal it is likely that intermediate wave (C) will subdivide as an impulse to exhibit structural alternation. If this intermediate wave up is intermediate wave (3) it may only subdivide as an impulse.
At 1,320 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A), and would probably end at the upper edge of the maroon channel. At 1,429 intermediate wave (C) or (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (A) or (1). If this target is met it would most likely be by a third wave and intermediate wave (C) would most likely be subdividing as a five wave impulse.
It is possible that the intermediate degree movement up for the bull wave count is beginning with a leading diagonal in a first wave position for minor wave 1.
A leading diagonal must have second and fourth waves which subdivide as zigzags. The first, third and fifth waves are most commonly zigzags but sometimes they may be impulses.
Within diagonals the most common depth of the second and fourth waves is between 0.66 and 0.81. Minute wave ii is now 0.66 of minute wave i so this downwards movement has actually made this structure more typical.
Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 1,142.82.
There are two ways to see this downwards movement. It may be an almost complete five wave impulse as shown here or it may already be complete as per the alternate hourly chart for the bear count below.
I will judge it to be more likely incomplete. At 1,181 micro wave C will reach equality in length with micro wave A, and subminuette wave iv will end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree.
Subminuette wave iv may find resistance at the upper edge of this best fit channel. The following fifth wave down may be equal in length with subminuette wave i at 10.67.
When minuette wave (c) is complete then the bull wave count requires a third wave up to move above the end of minute wave i at 1,224.35.
Bear Wave Count
This wave count follows the bear weekly count which sees primary wave 5 within cycle wave a as incomplete. At 957 primary wave 5 would reach equality in length with primary wave 1.
1. Intermediate wave (1) (to the left of this chart) subdivides perfectly as a five wave impulse with good Fibonacci ratios in price and time. There is perfect alternation and proportion between minor waves 2 and 4.
2. Intermediate wave (2) is a very common expanded flat correction. This sees minor wave C an ending expanding diagonal which is more common than a leading expanding diagonal.
3. Minor wave B within the expanded flat subdivides perfectly as a zigzag.
4. Volume supports the idea that the trend is currently down.
1. Intermediate wave (2) looks too big on the weekly chart.
2. Intermediate wave (2) has breached the channel from the weekly chart which contains cycle wave a.
3. Minute wave ii (the last high) breaches a base channel about the first and second wave one degree higher, minor waves 1 and 2. It is deeper and longer lasting than normal for a low degree second wave within a third wave one and two degrees higher.
4. Within minor wave 1 down there is gross disproportion between minute waves iv and ii: minute wave iv is more than 13 times the duration of minute wave i, giving this downwards wave a three wave look.
This wave count now expects to see a strong increase in downwards momentum as a third wave unfolds. At 1,059 minor wave 3 would reach equality in length with minor wave 1, and both would be extended.
Within minor wave 3, if minute wave ii continues further as a double flat or combination then it may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 1,224.35.
This hourly chart sees the downwards movement in exactly the same way as the bull wave count. The short term expectation is the same.
Subminuette wave iii is just 0.95 short of 4.236 the length of subminuette wave i, coming very close to the target calculated which was at 1,168.
When subminuette wave iv is complete it is possible for this bear wave count that subminuette wave v down may be a strong extended fifth wave typical of commodities. If it does this then it may reach equality with subminuette wave iii at 44.25 in length. If it does this it would take price below 1,142.82 providing further confidence in this bear wave count.
It may also only reach equality with subminuette wave i at 10.67 in length.
When the orange best fit channel is breached by upwards movement then minuette wave (i) would most likely be over. At that stage draw a Fibonacci retracement along the length of minuette wave (i). Minuette wave (ii) may correct up to the 0.382 or 0.618 Fibonacci ratios, with both equally as likely. There may be enough of a strong downwards pull from a third wave to force the upcoming second wave correction to be more shallow than second waves normally are.
There is another way to see recent downwards movement, as a complete five wave impulse.
Ratios within minuette wave (i) are: subminuette wave iii is 2.45 longer than 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of subminuette waves i or iii.
Minuette wave (i) fits nicely within its Elliott channel. This channel is now breached providing first indication that minuette wave (ii) should have begun.
The probability of this alternate idea is lower than the first hourly wave counts due to the slope of subminuette wave ii. This structure subdivides neatly as a double combination, which is a very common structure, but the second structure in the double does not end close to the same level as the first. Micro wave Y at 1,207.51 ends comfortably below the end of micro wave W at 1,214.19, so that subminuette wave ii has a downwards slope with the trend, and not a sideways look which it should have.
Minuette wave (ii) would be equally likely to correct up to the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio at 1,187 or the 0.618 Fiboancci ratio at 1,198. It may not move beyond the start of minute wave (i) above 1,215.20.
This idea also works for the bull wave count at the hourly chart level. There, it would require upwards movement above 1,215.20 from here.
This analysis is published about 05:20 p.m. EST.