Last analysis expected overall upwards movement while price remained within a channel, towards a mid term target.
Price has moved higher and remains within the channel. The target remains the same.
Summary: A third wave up to 36.21 continues. Downwards corrections should find support now at the lower edge of the black channel on the daily chart. If price breaks below the lower edge of the channel, the wave count would be in doubt. The invalidation point may now be moved up to 24.80.
New updates to this analysis are in bold.
MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
The whole wave down for cycle wave a subdivides well as a five wave impulse. However, GDX does not have adequate volume to produce typical looking Elliott wave structures. As always, this wave count comes with the strong caveat that this market is not sufficient in volume for a reliable Elliott wave analysis. It is a rough guide only. The direction expected from the Elliott wave count should be fairly reliable, but targets and invalidation points may not be.
Ratios within cycle wave a are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between primary waves 1 and 3, and primary wave 5 is 0.33 short of 0.236 the length of primary wave 3.
Ratios within primary wave 3 are: intermediate wave (3) is 3.48 short of 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1), and intermediate wave (5) has no Fibonacci ratio to intermediate waves (3) or (1).
Ratios within intermediate wave (3) are: minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 0.02 longer than equality in length with minor wave 1.
Ratios within minor wave 3 are: minute wave iii is 0.38 longer than equality in length with minute wave i, and minute wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minute waves i or iii.
Within primary wave 5, there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between intermediate waves (1), (3) and (5).
The black channel is a best fit; this movement does not fit into an Elliott channel. The channel is breached very clearly and price has made a major new swing high above 17.04. A trend change was confirmed in February.
If analysis of downwards movement is correct that cycle wave a has subdivided as a five wave structure, then this tells us two things:
1. The bear market for GDX must be incomplete because a five may not be a corrective structure, so this must only be wave A.
2. Cycle wave b may not make a new high above the start of cycle wave a at 66.98.
Cycle wave b may be any one of 23 possible corrective structures. It may be a swift sharp zigzag, or it may be a sideways structure such as a flat, combination or triangle. It should last one to several years.
The first movement up for cycle wave b must be a clear five wave structure for a trend of this magnitude. It looks like this completed at the Magee trend line where price found resistance and rebounded down. This line is now breached, providing further strong confidence that GDX is in a bull market for a longer term.
DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
Primary wave A may be subdividing as a three or a five. If it is a five, it looks like an unfolding impulse. If it is a three, so far it looks like an unfolding zigzag. Both a zigzag and the start of an impulse subdivide 5-3-5, so at this stage it is not possible to determine which this may be. Both possibilities must be considered.
At 36.21 intermediate wave (3) or (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1) or (A).
Within minor wave 3, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 24.80.
If this wave count is correct, then price should continue to find support at the lower edge of the black channel along the way up. The earliest warning this wave count may be wrong and the alternate below may be correct would be a breach of the lower edge of the black channel.
If price breaks above the upper edge of the black channel, then intermediate wave (3) would be accelerating. It may complete a blowoff top at its end. A very strong upwards day with a strong volume spike may signal the end of intermediate wave (3).
ALTERANTE DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
If price breaks below the lower edge of the black channel, then this wave count should be used. Assume the main wave count is correct while price remains within the black channel.
It is possible that primary wave A was a complete impulse on 16th of July, and primary wave B began there as an expanded flat correction.
If A is a five, then B may not move beyond its start below 12.40. Targets for primary wave B would be the 0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci ratios at 20.07 and 16.70.
If primary wave B is a flat correction, then within it intermediate wave (B) is so far 1.97 the length of intermediate wave (A). This is considerably longer than the normal range of up to 1.38, which reduces the probability of this wave count. Above 29.26 intermediate wave (B) would be longer than 2 times the length of intermediate wave (A). At that stage, the idea of an expanded flat should be discarded due to an extremely low probability.
At the weekly chart level, there was double bullish divergence between price and RSI at the low of January 2016.
There is still single bearish divergence between price and RSI now at the current high. Volume for last week was reasonable, greater than the two prior upwards weeks but slightly less than the prior downwards week.
ADX still indicates the longer term weekly trend is upwards. ATR agrees as it is increasing. However, ADX is now over 45, so the trend is extreme. Caution is advised. If the market is still trending, then price should find support about the 13 week moving average. A clear break below this average would indicate a larger correction may have arrived.
On Balance Volume is finding support at the yellow line. A break below this line would indicate price should move strongly lower for a deeper correction. In the first instance, it should be expected that OBV may find support at the line if it comes down to it again.
There is also divergence between price and Stochastics at the last two highs. This indicates some weakness.
Price may continue to find support at the cyan trend line. If that is breached, then it may find support at the lilac trend line.
On 1st of July (the last day of data from StockCharts), volume supported the upwards movement in price.
At the daily chart level, ADX is not extreme. ADX indicates there is an upwards trend in place. ATR neither agrees nor disagrees; it is flat. It should be assumed that there is still an upwards trend until ADX turns down or price breaks below support.
On Balance Volume has given a very recent strong bullish signal with a break above both yellow lines.
RSI and price exhibit bearish divergence (yellow lines). This indicates upwards movement may be weakening, a correction may arrive soon.
This analysis is published @ 04:08 a.m. EST.