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Upwards movement was expected for Monday.

Overall, the session moved upwards to complete a green daily candlestick.

Summary: The trend is up. The target remains at 1,582. Corrections are an opportunity to join the trend. Invest no more than 3-5% of equity on any one trade and always use a stop loss on all trades. Volume and On Balance Volume today are slightly bearish and this indicates caution for the wave count.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Last weekly chart is here.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
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Primary wave 2 is a complete expanded flat correction. Price from the low labelled primary wave 2 has now moved too far upwards to be reasonably considered a continuation of primary wave 2. Primary wave 3 is very likely to have begun and would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1 at 1,582.

Primary wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse.

So far intermediate waves (1) and (2) may be complete within primary wave 3. The middle of primary wave 3 may have begun and may also only subdivide as an impulse.

Within intermediate wave (3), the end of minor wave 1 is moved up to the last high. This fits on the hourly chart although it looks odd here on the daily chart. There was a small fourth wave correction up at the end of minor wave 1 and it subdivides on the hourly chart as an impulse. Minor wave 2 may be a complete zigzag, also subdividing as a zigzag on the hourly chart. If minor wave 2 is over, it would be 0.50 the depth of minute wave i.

No second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 1,310.84 within minor wave 3.

At 1,437 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). If price keeps going upwards through this first target, or if it gets there and the structure is incomplete, then the next target would be at 1,552 where intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2016
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Minute wave iii may only subdivide as an impulse. At 1,372 it would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i. If this target is wrong, it may be too low. If this target is right, then minute wave v would be a swift strong extension, which is what should be expected.

Minute wave iv may be expected to be very brief and shallow, so that minor wave 3 has a curved look. Gold often exhibits swift strong fifth waves, and this tendency is particularly prevalent for Gold’s third wave impulses. This is what should be expected for the end of minor wave 3 and probably also the end of intermediate wave (3). These impulses look like they are developing a typically curved look for Gold. When the fourth wave corrections higher up arrive, they may be very quick and shallow and not offer good entry points to join the trend except for the most nimble and active traders.

So far, within minute wave iii, minuette waves (i) and (ii) are now complete. This wave count now has Gold within a third wave up at five degrees. The middle of this big third wave should show a strong increase in momentum and it should be supported by volume.

Within minuette wave (iii), subminuette wave i is complete. Subminuette wave ii could possibly be complete at the low for Monday, but the wave count looks better if it sees subminuette wave ii incomplete. It may end about the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of subminuette wave i at 1,345. Micro wave C is likely to make a slight new low below the end of micro wave A at 1,346.35 to avoid a truncation.

The green channel here is adjusted to be a best fit. Along the way up, price may find support at the lower edge. When the upper edge is breached, then that may provide support. Expect the upper edge to be breached as the middle of a strong third wave approaches.

Within minuette wave (iii), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 1,330.35.

At 1,513 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. This target fits only with the second higher target for intermediate wave (3) on the daily chart.

Minor wave 3 should have support from rising volume and it should exhibit stronger momentum than minor wave 1.

Intermediate wave (1) lasted a Fibonacci thirteen days. Minor wave 1 lasted a Fibonacci eight days. Minor wave 3 may be expected to last longer, about a Fibonacci thirteen or maybe twenty one days. So far it has lasted only seven.

The alternate will no longer be published. It did not have an upper invalidation point, so technically it remains valid, but the structure at the hourly chart level no longer makes sense and the proportion at the daily chart level is now too far out for the right look.



Gold Weekly 2016
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Last week completes a bullish engulfing weekly candlestick that has stronger volume than the week before. After a short downwards movement, this is a reversal pattern from down to up or down to sideways.

Price broke above resistance last week about 1,345 and closed above this line. Next resistance would be about the last high about 1,380.

On Balance Volume is giving a bullish signal at the end of last week with a break above the purple trend line. The next line to offer resistance for OBV is the new green line.

RSI is not extreme yet. There is room for price to rise further.

Overall, the weekly volume profile is bullish. Volume increases as price rises and volume declines as price falls. There is no indication yet of an end to this upwards trend at the weekly chart level.


Gold Daily 2016
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Monday’s small inside day comes with clearly lighter volume than Friday’s stronger upwards day. The rise in price for Monday was not supported by volume, so it is suspicious.

On Balance Volume shows some divergence today with price. OBV has made a new high but price has not and this indicates some weakness in price.

Volume and OBV today indicate the Elliott wave count today should be approached with some caution. It may be wrong and a deeper correction may be about to unfold before the upwards trend resumes.

Sometimes in the early stages of a trend Gold can exhibit some hesitancy.

Apart from Monday’s session though the short term volume profile is still more bullish than bearish.

RSI is not yet overbought. There is still room for price to rise. RSI does not exhibit any divergence with price today to indicate any weakness.

ADX is still slightly increasing today indicating an upwards trend is in place.

ATR today is not increasing. With ATR declining today, it may be about to indicate a consolidation. But if it turns back up tomorrow, it would indicate a new trend is more likely.

Stochastics is not yet overbought. There is still room for price to rise.

The lower wick of Friday’s candlestick found support at the 13 day moving average. This average should continue to show where small corrections find support along the way up.

This analysis is published @ 06:13 p.m. EST.