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Resistance will be used to see where price may turn. Fibonacci numbers are used for duration and parallel channels are used for confidence in a turn.

Summary: If upwards movement continues, it may now be for only one more day; price may find resistance about 1,210. In the short term, a new low now below 1,177.46 would indicate a deeper correction has likely begun. Price needs to break below the gold channel for reasonable confidence in a trend change.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This main wave count has a better fit for prior movement. To see the difference between this main wave count and the alternate below please refer to last historic analysis linked to above.

This main wave count expects Gold has had a primary degree trend change in December 2016. The new upwards wave is either a primary degree third wave, or a primary degree zigzag to complete a double zigzag.

Intermediate wave (1) is either over today or should be very soon. Upwards movement is showing increased weakness. While price remains within the gold channel, it must be accepted that minor wave 5 may extend higher. A breach of the gold channel on the daily chart would provide strong indication of a trend change.

Intermediate wave (1) has so far lasted 20 sessions. If it continues for just one more, then it may end with a total Fibonacci 21 sessions.

The first in a series of second wave corrections for Gold’s new impulses is usually very deep. Intermediate wave (2) is expected to be at least 0.618 the depth of intermediate wave (1), and very likely may be deeper. It may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,123.08.

The upcoming correction for intermediate wave (2) should present an opportunity to join a new trend.

Intermediate wave (2) may be at least as long in duration as intermediate wave (1), and fairly likely it may be longer. A Fibonacci 21 or 34 sessions will be the expectation. Corrections are often more time consuming than impulses.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Upwards movement from the low on 15th of December will subdivide as a completed five wave impulse. This may be intermediate wave (1) as labelled, or the degree may be moved down one and it may only be minor wave 1 (as noted on the daily chart).

Minor wave 5 may have extended further today. There is now triple divergence between price and MACD. This is not a signal of a high in place and only indicates that this last upwards wave exhibits weakness. Divergence is a warning of an approaching trend change.

Within intermediate wave (1), Fibonacci ratios are: minor wave 3 is 3.85 short of 6.854 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 still has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minor waves 3 or 1.

Labelling within minor wave 5 is today changed after analysis of the five minute chart. There is alternation between a quick zigzag for minute wave ii and a more time consuming expanded flat for minute wave iv. There are no Fibonacci ratios between minute waves i, iii and v.

Indication of a trend change would be a breach of the lower edge of the gold channel. That would provide reasonable confidence in a trend change.

A new low below 1,177.46 would provide price confidence in a trend change. At that stage, downwards movement could not be a second wave correction within a final fifth wave of minute wave v, so minute wave v would have to be over.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This alternate wave count expects that Gold is still within a bear market. Targets for new lows can be seen on weekly and monthly charts.

Within the bear market, a primary degree correction is underway.

Primary wave 2 is most likely to subdivide as a zigzag. So far it looks like a five up is either complete now or very close to completion. This may be intermediate wave (A). As for the main wave count, if intermediate wave (A) continues for one more day, it may end in a total Fibonacci 21 sessions.

It is also possible to move the degree of labelling all down one degree within upwards movement for intermediate wave (A). It is possible that only minor wave 1 within intermediate wave (A) is complete. Either way the invalidation point remains the same. If a five up is complete, then the following three down may not move beyond its start below 1,123.08.

Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 above 1,374.81.



Gold Weekly 2017
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The fall in price to the last low was not supported by volume, so it should be suspicious.

The rise in price for the first two weeks has good support from volume (volume increased during the second week). The current week is incomplete, so no conclusion may be drawn at this stage for this week.

Price has found strong support about prior lines of support and resistance, about 1,140 and 1,130.

RSI almost reached oversold at the last low.

There is a Morning Star candlestick pattern at the low. At the weekly chart level, this is a reasonable reversal signal.

It would be reasonable to conclude that Gold has seen a trend change.


Gold Daily 2016
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The last three days of upwards movement comes with a steady increase in volume. The rise in price is supported by volume, so it is not suspicious. This looks like a healthy new trend.

The long lower wick on today’s candlestick is bullish.

Price may find some resistance now at the mid term Fibonacci 55 day moving average. If this does not offer resistance, then the horizontal line about 1,210 should.

On Balance Volume remains bullish.

RSI is bullish. The rise in price has strength.

ADX finally indicates an upwards trend in place; this is a lagging indicator as it is based upon 14 day averages. But the black ADX line is still above both the +DX and -DX lines, so it indicates the trend is nearing extreme.

ATR is overall flat, which indicates some weakness within this trend. If this is a first wave, as the Elliott wave count suggests, then this makes sense; first waves are often weak for Gold. Gold normally exhibits strength in third waves and particularly in fifth waves.

Stochastics is overbought, but during a trend this can persist for considerable time. There is no longer divergence today between price and Stochastsics to indicate weakness.

Bollinger Bands are now beginning to widen, supporting the trend with increased volatility.

Overall, this classic analysis today is more bullish. The bottom line is that while price remains within the channel drawn today on this chart, and the Elliott wave charts, expect that price is likely to continue higher.


GDX Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

GDX today made a lower low and a lower high, the definition of downwards movement. Although the daily candlestick is green.

The last four daily candlesticks have relatively small real bodies and long wicks, typical of a consolidation. This movement looks very much like a consolidation within an upwards trend. Price may be finding support at the downwards sloping gold line.

ADX today is declining, indicating the market is not currently trending. No trend change has been indicated, the +DX line remains above the -DX line, so a consolidation is indicated only.

ATR is overall increasing as price overall rises. This trend looks healthy.

On Balance Volume gives a small warning today with a weak bearish signal as it breaks below the yellow support line. This signal is weak because the line is steep, not long held, and only tested three times.

Stochastics is overbought still, but this can remain extreme for reasonable periods of time during a trending market.

Bollinger Bands are widening as price moves upwards indicating the trend is normal and healthy.

Corrections are an opportunity to join the trend. A correction is either over soon or may move lower, so watch On Balance Volume tomorrow. If it breaks more clearly below the yellow line, then accept the possibility that GDX could see a deeper correction here to resolve overbought conditions.

This analysis is published @ 06:20 p.m. EST.