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Upwards movement continued to the target on the main hourly Elliott wave count.

Summary: Targets for upwards movement to end are 1,219 (about 40% likely) or 1,238 (about 60% likely). In the short term, a new low below 1,207.34 would indicate a deeper correction may be beginning. But for confidence a breach of the gold channel would still be required.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This main wave count has a better fit for prior movement. To see the difference between this main wave count and the alternate below please refer to last historic analysis linked to above.

This main wave count expects Gold has had a primary degree trend change in December 2016. The new upwards wave is either a primary degree third wave, or a primary degree zigzag to complete a double zigzag.

Intermediate wave (1) is still not over and may not exhibit a Fibonacci duration. So far price remains within the gold channel. A breach of the gold channel on the daily chart would provide strong indication of a trend change.

The first in a series of second wave corrections for Gold’s new impulses is usually very deep. Intermediate wave (2) is expected to be at least 0.618 the depth of intermediate wave (1), and very likely may be deeper. It may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,123.08.

The upcoming correction for intermediate wave (2) should present an opportunity to join a new trend.

Intermediate wave (2) may be at least as long in duration as intermediate wave (1), and fairly likely it may be longer. A Fibonacci 21 or 34 sessions will be the expectation. Corrections are often more time consuming than impulses.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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The structure of minor wave 5 is still incomplete.

Gold often exhibits swift strong fifth waves, and in a bull market these are seen as blow off tops. Look out for this tendency for the end of minute wave v.

The first target now again looks too low. The second target may have a higher probability, especially if minute wave v is swift and strong.

Minute wave iv, if it continues, may not move into minute wave i price territory below 1,207.34.

The best fit channel is redrawn, as shown on the daily chart, and a mid line is added here on the hourly chart. Price may remain in the upper half while minute wave v ends. If price moves into the lower half of the channel, then the probability of an end to intermediate wave (1) would increase. If price breaks below the lower edge of the channel, then expect that intermediate wave (1) is finally over and intermediate wave (2) has begun.

So far intermediate wave (1) has lasted 24 sessions. The next Fibonacci number in the sequence is 34, which would see it continue for two more weeks, another 10 sessions. This is possible, or it may not exhibit a Fibonacci duration and end sooner.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This alternate wave count expects that Gold is still within a bear market. Targets for new lows can be seen on weekly and monthly charts.

Within the bear market, a primary degree correction is underway.

Primary wave 2 is most likely to subdivide as a zigzag. So far it looks like a five up is either complete now or very close to completion. This may be intermediate wave (A). Intermediate wave (A) may now be complete lasting a total Fibonacci 21 sessions.

It is also possible to move the degree of labelling all down one degree within upwards movement for intermediate wave (A). It is possible that only minor wave 1 within intermediate wave (A) is complete. Either way the invalidation point remains the same. If a five up is complete, then the following three down may not move beyond its start below 1,123.08.

Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 above 1,374.81.



Gold Weekly 2017
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Gold has moved higher for three weeks in a row on increasing volume. The rise in price is well supported by volume. This upwards movement looks healthy.

A Morning Star candlestick pattern at the last low indicates a possible trend change there.

Next resistance is about 1,225.

On Balance Volume may provide resistance before that price point is reached though. It is coming up to almost touch the yellow trend line that previously provided support. However, there is some leeway in exactly how this line may be drawn, so it is not possible to tell with accuracy exactly where resistance is. It may be here or it may be just a little higher.

RSI shows increasing strength to upwards movement.

ADX does not yet indicate a trend change (this is a lagging indicator). The black ADX line is declining, indicating only a consolidation. The -DX line remains above the +DX line. No trend change is yet indicated at this time frame.


Gold Daily 2016
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Price continues to move higher finding resistance at the upper gold trend line. Price has today closed above the horizontal resistance line about 1,210. After looking left back three years, three more horizontal lines are added. Next resistance may be about 1,225, then 1,240, then 1,250. Thereafter, there is very strong resistance about 1,305 to 1,310.

Price has just crossed the mid term Fibonacci 55 day moving average. This mid term average looks like it may be turning upwards. It may now offer support.

Volume strongly supports the rise in price, but there has been no blowoff top yet to indicate an end to this trend.

On Balance Volume is bullish. Trend lines are adjusted.

ADX is increasing, indicating the market is trending; the trend is up. The trend is not yet extreme as ADX is below 35 and is below one of the directional lines. There is room for this trend to continue.

ATR is overall flat while this trend continues. This is normal for the first wave within Gold’s trends, and also for a counter trend movement. It is impossible still to tell which situation is occurring here.

Stochastics is overbought and today exhibits divergence with price. However, this oscillator may remain extreme for reasonable periods of time during a trending market and may exhibit sustained and multiple divergence before price turns. I would not expect this trend to end here because Stochastics is overbought.

Bollinger Bands are widening as volatility returns during this trend. This looks normal. Bollinger Bands are not yet extreme. There is room for the trend to increase volatility further. Price is at the upper edge of Bollinger Bands, but during Gold’s trends this can persist for reasonable periods of time. Example: from 10th to 25th November, 2016, price sat at the lower edge of Bollinger Bands with only three days moving sideways or higher within that trend.


GDX Daily 2017
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GDX today broke above the bull flag pattern. Price gapped up above the pattern, which has now provided support. With strong volume, the balance of which was up for the session, this looks like a classic breakout. The breakaway gap may offer support now.

The trend for GDX is up. ADX today is increasing and the +DX line is above the -DX line. All three moving averages are pointing up. The short term average crossed above the mid term average today.

The target using the measured rule for the flag pattern is now calculated at 27.80. This would fit with the second higher target for Gold.

ATR is now overall flat; this may be a lag from the flag pattern. ATR may now be expected to show some increase.

On Balance Volume is bullish and remains constrained. A break below support may indicate a deeper correction has arrived, but first if OBV comes down to the yellow line expect it to provide support.

After looking left for a period of three years, two more horizontal resistance lines are added. Next resistance may be about 25.00. Thereafter about 26.10.

RSI is bullish and is not yet overbought. There is room for price to rise.

Stochastics is overbought and exhibits single divergence today with price. However, this can develop further as Stochastics can remain extreme for reasonable periods of time during a trending market. This alone is not enough to signal the end to this trend.

Bollinger Bands are now extreme though. The target calculated by the measured rule looks too optimistic for GDX. This may mean that the second higher target for Gold may also be too optimistic.

This analysis is published @ 09:02 p.m. EST.