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Price has moved lower and remains within the channel drawn on both the hourly and daily Elliott wave charts.

Summary: The bottom line is still that it must be accepted there is no indication yet of an end to this upwards wave while Gold remains within the channel and above the confidence point of 1,187.97. However, the situation today is more bearish than recently, so it is more possible for Gold and GDX today that a high is in place.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This main wave count has a better fit for prior movement. To see the difference between this main wave count and the alternate below please refer to last historic analysis linked to above.

This main wave count expects Gold has had a primary degree trend change in December 2016. The new upwards wave is either a primary degree third wave, or a primary degree zigzag to complete a double zigzag.

Intermediate wave (1) may not exhibit a Fibonacci duration. So far price remains within the gold channel. A breach of the gold channel on the daily chart would provide strong indication of a trend change.

While price remains within the gold channel, then it must be accepted that it is likely to continue higher. A breach of the gold channel would indicate intermediate wave (1) is over and intermediate wave (2) has arrived.

The first in a series of second wave corrections for Gold’s new impulses is usually very deep. Intermediate wave (2) is expected to be at least 0.618 the depth of intermediate wave (1), and very likely may be deeper. It may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,123.08.

The upcoming correction for intermediate wave (2) should present an opportunity to join a new trend.

Intermediate wave (2) may be at least as long in duration as intermediate wave (1), and fairly likely it may be longer. A Fibonacci 21 or 34 sessions will be the expectation. Corrections are often more time consuming than impulses.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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While price remains within the channel, the expectation should be that intermediate wave (1) is incomplete.

Gold commonly exhibits swift strong fifth waves, often ending bull movements in blow off tops. This may happen at the end of minor wave 5.

Within minor wave 5, minute waves i and ii may be complete. If minute wave ii moves lower, it may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 1,187.97.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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This alternate wave count simply moves the degree of minor wave 5 up one degree. It is possible today again that intermediate wave (1) is over.

Fibonacci ratios within intermediate wave (1) are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves 1 and 3, and minor wave 5 is just 0.31 short of 0.382 the length of minor wave 3.

A breach of the gold trend channel would substantially increase the probability of this wave count. At that stage, the main hourly wave count would be discarded. A new low below 1,187.97 would add further confidence to this wave count.

When price reaches the lower gold trend line, then how it behaves there should provide some information on which wave count is correct. If price slices easily through the line, then this alternate would be more likely. If price bounces up from the line, the main hourly wave count would be more likely.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This alternate wave count expects that Gold is still within a bear market. Targets for new lows can be seen on weekly and monthly charts.

Within the bear market, a primary degree correction is underway.

Primary wave 2 is most likely to subdivide as a zigzag. So far it looks like a five up is either complete now or very close to completion. This may be intermediate wave (A). Intermediate wave (A) may now be complete lasting a total Fibonacci 21 sessions.

It is also possible to move the degree of labelling all down one degree within upwards movement for intermediate wave (A). It is possible that only minor wave 1 within intermediate wave (A) is complete. Either way the invalidation point remains the same. If a five up is complete, then the following three down may not move beyond its start below 1,123.08.

Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 above 1,374.81.



Gold Weekly 2017
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Gold has moved higher for three weeks in a row on increasing volume. The rise in price is well supported by volume. This upwards movement looks healthy.

A Morning Star candlestick pattern at the last low indicates a possible trend change there.

Next resistance is about 1,225.

On Balance Volume may provide resistance before that price point is reached though. It is coming up to almost touch the yellow trend line that previously provided support. However, there is some leeway in exactly how this line may be drawn, so it is not possible to tell with accuracy exactly where resistance is. It may be here or it may be just a little higher.

RSI shows increasing strength to upwards movement.

ADX does not yet indicate a trend change (this is a lagging indicator). The black ADX line is declining, indicating only a consolidation. The -DX line remains above the +DX line. No trend change is yet indicated at this time frame.


Gold Daily 2016
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Price continues to move higher finding resistance at the upper gold trend line. Next resistance may be about 1,225, then 1,240, then 1,250. Thereafter, there is very strong resistance about 1,305 to 1,310.

Today’s session completed a red hanging man. This is a bearish reversal candlestick pattern that requires confirmation. For a reversal to be indicated here it needs to be followed by a red daily candlestick that moves price lower.

The session came with substantially lighter volume. The fall in price was not supported by volume. This looks like a small correction within an upwards trend at this stage and not necessarily the start of a deeper correction.

Price has just crossed the mid term Fibonacci 55 day moving average. This mid term average looks like it may be turning upwards. It may now offer support.

Volume strongly supports the rise in price, but there has been no blowoff top yet to indicate an end to this trend.

On Balance Volume is bullish. OBV has today come down to almost touch the yellow support line. This may offer support and assist to halt the fall in price here.

RSI is not yet overbought. There is room for price to rise further.

ADX is increasing, indicating the market is trending; the trend is up. The trend is now moving into extreme as today the black ADX line crossed the +DX line and is now above both directional lines. There is still room for the trend to continue higher though as ADX is below 35.

ATR is overall flat while this trend continues. This is normal for the first wave within Gold’s trends, and also for a counter trend movement. It is impossible still to tell which situation is occurring here.

Stochastics is overbought and exhibits divergence with price. However, this oscillator may remain extreme for reasonable periods of time during a trending market and may exhibit sustained and multiple divergence before price turns. I would not expect this trend to end here because Stochastics is overbought.

Bollinger Bands are widening as volatility returns during this trend. This looks normal. Bollinger Bands are not yet extreme. There is room for the trend to increase volatility further. Price is at the upper edge of Bollinger Bands, but during Gold’s trends this can persist for reasonable periods of time. Example: from 10th to 25th November, 2016, price sat at the lower edge of Bollinger Bands with only three days moving sideways or higher within that trend.


GDX Daily 2017
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After breaking above what looked like a bull flag pattern yesterday, GDX today returned to close back below the upper trend line for the pattern. The lower wick of today’s candlestick closed the gap. This gap is now more correctly termed a pattern gap; the bull flag pattern is no longer correct because it does not fit within a parallel channel as a flag pattern should. The target is removed.

ADX today is declining, indicating a consolidation.

ATR is now overall flat in agreement with ADX that this market is most likely consolidating. This consolidation may be a slow rounded topping process or a sideways consolidation within a larger upwards trend.

On Balance Volume is bullish and remains constrained. A break below support may indicate a deeper correction has arrived, but first if OBV comes down to the yellow line expect it to provide support.

After looking left for a period of three years, two more horizontal resistance lines are added. Next resistance may be about 25.00. Thereafter about 26.10.

RSI is bullish and is not yet overbought. There is room for price to rise.

Stochastics is overbought and exhibits single divergence today with price. However, this can develop further as Stochastics can remain extreme for reasonable periods of time during a trending market. This alone is not enough to signal the end to this trend.

Bollinger Bands are now extreme though. With BBs now looking like they may possibly be beginning a period of contraction, it looks today like GDX may be beginning a deeper correction.

This analysis is published @ 09:27 p.m. EST.