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A breach of the trend channel and a new low below 1,195.82 invalidated the main Elliott wave count and confirmed the alternate.

Summary: A deeper pullback looks very likely to have begun. Short positions should be watched carefully because this may be a choppy overlapping counter trend movement. The target for it to end is about 1,160 minimum, but it may be deeper, and it may take about 34 days to get there in a big three wave movement.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This main wave count has a better fit for prior movement. To see the difference between this main wave count and the alternate below please refer to last historic analysis linked to above.

This main wave count expects Gold has had a primary degree trend change in December 2016. The new upwards wave is either a primary degree third wave, or a primary degree zigzag to complete a double zigzag.

Intermediate wave (1) may now be over in 30 days. Intermediate wave (2) may be about even in duration (it may last a Fibonacci 34 days), or it may be longer lasting though because corrections are often more time consuming than the impulses they correct. If it does not end in a total Fibonacci 34 days, then the next Fibonacci number in the sequence is 55.

Today’s candlestick is almost a breach of the gold channel at the daily chart level. At the hourly chart level, the channel is clearly breached. The lower edge of the channel may now provide resistance.

The first in a series of second wave corrections for Gold’s new impulses is usually very deep. Intermediate wave (2) is expected to be at least 0.618 the depth of intermediate wave (1), and very likely may be deeper. It may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,123.08.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart 6 Hourly 2017
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This chart shows detail of all of intermediate wave (1) so far.

Minor wave 1 is seen as a very short first wave, minor wave 2 is a combination, and minor wave 4 exhibits alternation as a zigzag.

Fibonacci ratios within intermediate wave (1) are: minor wave 3 exhibits no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 0.45 short of 2.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Fibonacci ratios within minor wave 3 are: minute wave iii is 2.02 longer than 6.854 the length of minute wave i, and minute wave v is 1.30 longer than 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

Fibonacci ratios within minute wave iii are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii), and minuette wave (v) is just 0.27 short of 0.382 the length of minuette wave (iii).

Fibonacci ratios within minuette wave (iii) are: subminuette wave iii is just 0.57 longer than 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of subminuette waves i or iii.

Fibonacci ratios within subminuette wave iii are: micro wave 3 is just 0.76 longer than 1.618 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 1.81 longer than 0.618 the length of micro wave 3.

Fibonacci ratios within micro wave 3 are: submicro wave (3) is just 0.37 longer than 1.618 the length of submicro wave (1), and submicro wave (5) has no adequate Fibonacci ratio to either of submicro waves (3) or (1).

All Elliott wave rules are met. Minor wave 1 is short and minor wave 3 is a long extension.

The channel is a best fit. Draw the first trend line from the ends of minor waves 1 to 3, then pull a parallel copy lower to the end of subminuette wave ii.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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A movement at intermediate degree should begin with a five down at the hourly chart level. This is still incomplete.

When minute wave i is a complete five wave impulse, then the invalidation point for minute wave ii will move to its start at 1,219.11.

For now the invalidation point may be at 1,206.64. Subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory.

The gold channel is a best fit. So far it shows where price is finding resistance and support, with overshoots to the downside being the ends of strong third waves.

There is a truncation for the end of micro wave 5 to end subminuette wave iii. This came after the strongest downwards candlestick ending micro wave 3; it may have been a movement that could be described as too far too fast. This truncation may be acceptable.

Subminuette wave iii is 0.48 longer than 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

Ratios within submineutte wave iii are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 0.32 short of 0.618 the length of micro wave 1.

The upper edge of the channel should provide resistance while minute wave i continues lower. If this channel is breached with a full hourly candlestick above and not touching the upper edge, then something else may be happening. At that stage, the short term labelling within minor wave A down may be wrong; a deeper upwards wave may be developing, so I will exit my short position if that happens.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This alternate wave count expects that Gold is still within a bear market. Targets for new lows can be seen on weekly and monthly charts.

Within the bear market, a primary degree correction is underway.

Primary wave 2 is most likely to subdivide as a zigzag. It looks like today intermediate wave (A) is complete and a correction for intermediate wave (B) may have begun.

Intermediate wave (B) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A) below 1,123.08.

Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 above 1,374.81.



Gold Weekly 2017
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The first three weeks of upwards movement came with a steady increase in volume to support the rise in price, but last week saw a decline in volume. This indicates some weakness for last week.

The long upper wick and small real body of the last weekly candlestick is slightly bearish. This is not a reversal signal at all but only a warning of internal weakness. This upwards trend will either end or see a correction at the weekly chart level; trend changes are often preceded by signs of weakness.

Price may find some resistance about 1,225.

On Balance Volume gave a weak bullish signal last week. The signal is weak because this line has been broken before. The purple resistance line offers stronger technical significance.

At the weekly chart level, RSI is increasing along with price.

ADX is still declining, indicating the market is not yet trending (but this is a lagging indicator). ADX has not yet indicated a trend change from down to up; the -DX line remains above the +DX line.


Gold Daily 2016
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Price has closed below the lower edge of the gold channel. If the next daily candlestick prints fully below and not touching the lower trend line, that would be a very clear channel breach.

Downwards movement today has support from volume. Volume today is higher than the prior five days, so the support is reasonable. At least one more downwards day may be expected to be very likely.

On Balance Volume is bearish as it finds resistance at the yellow line.

RSI is above neutral and declining with price. The small single divergence at the last highs is bearish.

ADX today indicates no trend as it is declining. The prior upwards trend with the ADX line above both directional lines was extreme, so a pullback is very likely.

ATR remains flat.

Stochastics exhibited multiple divergence with price at highs and it was overbought. This is bearish.

Overall, a pullback here looks to be very likely. Support may be found at about 1,170 and 1,140.


GDX Daily 2017
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GDX has not closed below its trend line. Price moved lower today on declining volume, the balance of which was down. The fall in price does not have support from volume for GDX.

The 13 day moving average may provide some support.

ADX indicates no clear trend for GDX. ATR agrees as it is declining.

On Balance Volume remains constrained, giving no signal.

RSI is not extreme. Stochastics is, and exhibits divergence with price at highs, which is a bearish signal.

GDX today is less clear than Gold. I would rather let Gold analysis lead GDX than vice versa.

This analysis is published @ 07:50 p.m. EST.