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Downwards movement ended 1.58 below the first target. A breach of the small channel on the hourly Elliott wave chart indicated a trend change, which was expected.

Summary: A little upwards movement on Monday and maybe also Tuesday is expected to end about 1,205. This small bounce may present another opportunity to join the short term downwards trend. I do not expect to see a new high above 1,219.11.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This main wave count has a better fit for prior movement. To see the difference between this main wave count and the alternate below please refer to last historic analysis linked to above.

This main wave count expects Gold has had a primary degree trend change in December 2016. The new upwards wave is either a primary degree third wave, or a primary degree zigzag to complete a double zigzag.

Intermediate wave (1) lasted 30 days. Intermediate wave (2) may be about even in duration (it may last a Fibonacci 34 days), or it may be longer lasting because corrections are often more time consuming than the impulses they correct. If it does not end in a total Fibonacci 34 days, then the next Fibonacci number in the sequence is 55.

The first in a series of second wave corrections for Gold’s new impulses is usually very deep. Intermediate wave (2) is expected to be at least 0.618 the depth of intermediate wave (1), and very likely may be deeper. It may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,123.08.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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A movement at intermediate degree should begin with a five down at the hourly chart level. This is now complete.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 1,219.11.

Ratios within minute wave i are: minuette wave (iii) is 0.73 short of 4.236 the length of minuette wave (i), and there is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between minuette wave (v) and either of minuette waves (i) and (iii).

Intermediate wave (2) has so far lasted only three days. It should have a reasonable proportion to intermediate wave (1), so at this stage it is very unlikely that minor wave A is close to completion. Minor wave A should continue lower for a few days yet at least.

The target of 1,160 for intermediate wave (2) is a minimum. It is fairly likely to be deeper than the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1). Within intermediate wave (2), when it arrives minor wave B should be a reasonable upwards or sideways movement. At that stage, it would be wisest to exit this market and wait patiently for minor wave C downwards to arrive. B waves do not present good trading opportunities.

At this stage, short positions should have been closed when upwards movement broke above the downwards sloping channel on the hourly Elliott wave chart in last analysis. There may be another opportunity to enter a short position at the end of minute wave ii.

Minute wave i lasted three days. Minute wave ii may last about two to three days. It may end on Monday or Tuesday next week.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This alternate wave count expects that Gold is still within a bear market. Targets for new lows can be seen on weekly and monthly charts.

Within the bear market, a primary degree correction is underway.

Primary wave 2 is most likely to subdivide as a zigzag. Intermediate wave (A) is complete and a correction for intermediate wave (B) has begun.

Intermediate wave (B) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A) below 1,123.08.

Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 above 1,374.81.



Gold Weekly 2017
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This week completes a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. This is the most reliable reversal pattern. It is supported by an increase in volume from the prior week. Price has found strong resistance about 1,220.

On Balance Volume gives a weak bearish signal this week with a break below the yellow line. The signal is weak because the line has been broken before.

At the weekly chart level, ADX indicates no clear trend.


Gold Daily 2016
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Price has moved lower now for three days in a row and each day has seen a decline in volume. Now the third day completes a small Dragonfly doji candlestick, and coming after a decline this is a reversal pattern. It would be reasonable to expect Monday and maybe also Tuesday to see a bounce up from here, which is in line with expectations for the Elliott wave count.

Trend lines on On Balance Volume are adjusted. The break below the yellow line is a weak bearish signal. This line may now offer resistance.

RSI is neutral.

ADX is declining. The +DX line has not crossed below the -DX line, but they are converging. If they cross, that would indicate a possible trend change. At this stage, at the daily chart level, ADX indicates the market is consolidating.

ATR remains flat.

Stochastics reached overbought at highs and there exhibited divergence with price. Now it is returning from overbought. With ADX indicating a consolidation, a range bound approach to this market would expect a continuation of downwards movement overall from here (which may be choppy and overlapping) to end only when price finds support and Stochastics reaches oversold. Next support is about 1,170 and thereafter about 1,140.


GDX Daily 2017
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GDX has bounced up from support about 22.80. There is reasonable resistance about 23.55. Upwards movement for Friday’s session comes with a decline in volume, so it is suspicious.

ADX is declining, indicating a consolidating market. Resistance is about 23.55 to 24.20. Support is about 22.00. A range bound approach to this market would expect a downwards swing overall to continue to support and only to end when Stochastics reaches oversold.

As price moves essentially sideways in choppy overlapping movement, Bollinger Bands are contracting, typical of a consolidation.

This analysis is published @ 09:26 p.m. EST.