Select Page

Upwards movement was expected for Monday’s session.

The target on the hourly Elliott wave count is not yet met, so the analysis today will focus on whether or not this bounce is complete.

Summary: It looks more likely that the bounce is complete today and a third wave down may begin from here. If price makes a new high above 1,199.23, then the bounce is not over; the target is at 1,205.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This main wave count has a better fit for prior movement. To see the difference between this main wave count and the alternate below please refer to last historic analysis linked to above.

This main wave count expects Gold has had a primary degree trend change in December 2016. The new upwards wave is either a primary degree third wave, or a primary degree zigzag to complete a double zigzag.

Intermediate wave (1) lasted 30 days. Intermediate wave (2) may be about even in duration (it may last a Fibonacci 34 days), or it may be longer lasting because corrections are often more time consuming than the impulses they correct. If it does not end in a total Fibonacci 34 days, then the next Fibonacci number in the sequence is 55.

At this stage, intermediate wave (1) has completed a five down and a three up. This is labelled minute waves i and ii rather than minor waves A and B. Because intermediate wave (1) so far has lasted only four days and is expected to last close to 30 days in total (if not longer), then it looks premature to move the degree of labelling within this correction up one degree.

The first in a series of second wave corrections for Gold’s new impulses is usually very deep. Intermediate wave (2) is expected to be at least 0.618 the depth of intermediate wave (1), and very likely may be deeper. It may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,123.08.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

A movement at intermediate degree should begin with a five down at the hourly chart level. This is now complete.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 1,219.11.

Minute wave ii so far subdivides perfectly as a zigzag. This looks most likely to be the entirety of the correction, but it must be accepted that it could continue higher. This may also be only minuette wave (a) of a larger flat correction, or minuette wave (w) being the first zigzag in a double zigzag. Classic technical analysis today favours the view that this correction is over.

The next wave down looks most likely to be be minute wave iii. It should show an increase in downwards momentum over the next one to three days.

Watch price behaviour carefully when it gets down to the lower edge of the Elliott channel. If price slices easily through this channel, then the probability that minute wave ii is over and minute wave iii is underway would be very high. If price finds support and bounces up from the lower edge of the channel, then the probability that minute wave ii is continuing would increase.

The target of 1,160 for intermediate wave (2) is a minimum. It is fairly likely to be deeper than the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1). Within intermediate wave (2), when it arrives minor wave B should be a reasonable upwards or sideways movement. At that stage, it would be wisest to exit this market and wait patiently for minor wave C downwards to arrive. B waves do not present good trading opportunities.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This alternate wave count expects that Gold is still within a bear market. Targets for new lows can be seen on weekly and monthly charts.

Within the bear market, a primary degree correction is underway.

Primary wave 2 is most likely to subdivide as a zigzag. Intermediate wave (A) is complete and a correction for intermediate wave (B) has begun.

Intermediate wave (B) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A) below 1,123.08.

Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 above 1,374.81.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Last week completes a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. This is the most reliable reversal pattern. It is supported by an increase in volume from the prior week. Price has found strong resistance about 1,220.

On Balance Volume gives a weak bearish signal last week with a break below the yellow line. The signal is weak because the line has been broken before.

At the weekly chart level, ADX indicates no clear trend.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

A small range upwards day completes with a decline in volume. The rise in price is not supported by volume and that may indicate this is a small counter trend movement, which may now be complete.

On Balance Volume has turned up to touch the yellow line. This may assist to halt the rise in price here; it may offer resistance.

RSI is not extreme. There is plenty of room for price to rise or fall.

ADX is still declining, indicating the market is not trending; it is consolidating. ADX has not yet indicated a trend change from the prior upwards trend, only a consolidation.

ATR is flat to declining in support of ADX.

Stochastics reached overbought while price reached resistance, and there exhibited divergence. Now Stochastics is returning from overbought and price is moving lower. Downwards movement may be expected to continue within a range bound market and only end when price finds support and Stochastics reaches oversold. Next support for price is about 1,170, then about 1,140.

Price has found some support about the mid line of Bollinger Bands. If it breaks through to the lower half of the Bollinger Band range, then it may be expected to find support about the lower edge of the range.


GDX Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Price moved higher today for GDX with a higher high and a higher low. But the session closed red, and the balance of volume during the session was downwards.

GDX is range bound with resistance about 22.80 to 24.25, and support about 22.55 to 22.00. Stochastics is returning from oversold and price is returning from resistance. Overall downwards movement may be expected until price finds support and Stochastics is oversold at the same time.

Volume is declining as price moves overall sideways, which is typical of a consolidation.

ADX shows a further small decline today. It still indicates GDX is consolidating. ATR continues to decline also in agreement.

On Balance Volume is today at support. A break below the yellow line would be a bearish signal for GDX.

Bollinger Bands have contracted as price moves sideways, also supporting the idea that GDX is currently consolidating.

During the consolidation, it is the first downwards day of the 6th of January and the next downwards day of the 17th of January, 2016, that have the strongest volume. This suggests a downwards breakout may be more likely than upwards. This is in line with the analysis for Gold.

This analysis is published @ 08:11 p.m. EST.