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Friday’s session moved price lower as expected.

A strong bounce has found resistance right at the lower edge of a trend channel. This also was expected as reasonably likely behaviour from price.

Summary: Probability has shifted back to a deep pullback beginning here. The target is at 1,148.

Follow my two Golden Rules of risk management:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Invest no more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This main wave count has a better fit for prior movement. To see the difference between this main wave count and the alternate below please refer to last historic analysis linked to above.

This main wave count expects Gold has had a primary degree trend change in December 2016. The new upwards wave is either a primary degree third wave, or a primary degree zigzag to complete a double zigzag.

The labelling within the end of intermediate wave (1) and the start of intermediate wave (2) is changed today. This has a better fit on the hourly chart. Intermediate wave (1) is an impulse that may have lasted 23 days, two longer than a Fibonacci 21. Intermediate wave (2) may be unfolding as a very common expanded flat correction.

Within intermediate wave (2), minor wave A fits best as a regular flat and minor wave B is a zigzag. Minor wave B is longer than the common length of 1 to 1.38 times A, but within the allowable convention of up to two times the length of A.

The appropriate target for minor wave C is 2.618 the length of minor wave A.

So far intermediate wave (2) has lasted sixteen sessions. Minor waves A and B have lasted a Fibonacci eight sessions each. If intermediate wave (2) exhibits a Fibonacci duration, it may be either a total 21 or 34 sessions; 21 is possible but may be too quick, so 34 looks more likely.

Alternatively, intermediate wave (2) may not exhibit a Fibonacci duration.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Minute wave i fits as an impulse.

Minute wave ii fits as a completed expanded flat and the subdivisions have a good fit on the five minute chart.

Minute wave ii may be over here, or it may still continue higher if minuette wave (c) within it extends. If it is over here, then it is just short of the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i. So far minute wave ii is 0.58 the depth of minute wave i.

Minute wave ii has come up to find resistance at the lower edge of the Elliott channel. This is typical behaviour of price.

The risk here to short positions is at 1,244.89. Stops should be set just above this point; allow the market room to move, allow a little extra for widening brokerage spreads in times of high volatility.

If price behaves as expected and moves downwards on Monday, then move stops to breakeven to eliminate risk. The next wave down should be a third wave if this wave count is correct.

Two targets are provided for minute wave iii. If price gets to the first target and the structure is incomplete, or if price keeps falling through the first target, then use the second target.

Once there is some downwards movement to draw a channel around, then a channel may be used to show where price may find support and resistance along the way down. A resistance line may be used to add to short positions.

Any members entering short here must accept the possibility that this wave count is wrong. This wave count would be invalidated above 1,244.89. Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This alternate wave count expects that Gold is still within a bear market. Targets for new lows can be seen on weekly and monthly charts.

Within the bear market, a primary degree correction is underway.

Primary wave 2 is most likely to subdivide as a zigzag. Intermediate wave (A) is complete.

The alternate idea today reverts back to seeing the correction here labelled intermediate wave (B) (and for the main wave count it would be labelled intermediate wave (2) ) as a complete regular flat.

The next five up, for this alternate labelled intermediate wave (C) (and for the main wave count labelled intermediate wave (3) ), may have begun.

Within the impulse upwards, a first wave labelled minor wave 1 may now be complete. Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 1,181.41.

Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 above 1,374.81.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

What if downwards movement for Friday’s session is a completed three?

Minor wave 2 may be over as a relatively brief shallow zigzag, and as labelled it does look better as a three than as a five. This fits with this wave count.

However, there is still the problem (shown on yesterday’s alternate hourly chart) within minor wave 1, so this still reduces the probability of this alternate wave count.

Within minor wave 3, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 1,221.71.

If price makes a new high above 1,244.49, then the main wave count would be invalidated and this alternate confirmed.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The long upper wick and smaller real body on this week’s candlestick is slightly bearish. The decline in volume is also bearish.

The strongest weekly volume in recent weeks is a downwards week, and this too is bearish.

On Balance Volume is some distance away from resistance.

ADX continues to decline indicating no clear trend.


Gold Daily 2016
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Friday’s session has a lower low and lower high, compared to Thursday’s session, although it closed green. The balance of volume during the session was down and volume was lighter than the prior downwards day. The market fell of its own weight on Friday.

The bearish signal from On Balance Volume may possibly now be resolved. There is some distance before OBV finds support.

Price is finding some support about 1,225 and resistance about 1,235. Next support is about 1,205.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

A pullback looks to have begun for GDX.

Price made a lower low and lower high, the definition of downwards movement, during Friday’s session. But the session closed green and the balance of volume during the session was upwards. With lighter volume on Friday for upwards movement during the session, this rise in price does not have support from volume and is read as bearish.

Next support is about 22.80. First, price may find support about the 13 day moving average.

On Balance Volume did not break below the yellow support line. This line is very slightly adjusted today.

This analysis is published @ 06:43 p.m. EST on 11th February, 2017.