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Downwards movement continued as expected for Monday’s session.

The main Elliott wave count remains the same. The alternate is slightly adjusted at the hourly chart level.

Summary: The target for a deep pullback is at 1,148.

Follow my two Golden Rules of risk management:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Invest no more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This main wave count has a better fit for prior movement. To see the difference between this main wave count and the alternate below please refer to last historic analysis linked to above.

This main wave count expects Gold has had a primary degree trend change in December 2016. The new upwards wave is either a primary degree third wave, or a primary degree zigzag to complete a double zigzag.

Intermediate wave (1) is an impulse that may have lasted 23 days, two longer than a Fibonacci 21. Intermediate wave (2) may be unfolding as a very common expanded flat correction.

Within intermediate wave (2), minor wave A fits best as a regular flat and minor wave B is a zigzag. Minor wave B is longer than the common length of 1 to 1.38 times A, but within the allowable convention of up to two times the length of A.

The appropriate target for minor wave C is 2.618 the length of minor wave A.

So far intermediate wave (2) has lasted nineteen sessions. Minor waves A and B have lasted a Fibonacci eight sessions each. If intermediate wave (2) exhibits a Fibonacci duration, it may a total 34 sessions.

Alternatively, intermediate wave (2) may not exhibit a Fibonacci duration.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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The labelling within minute wave i is changed after analysis of the five minute chart. Minute wave i may be close to completion.

This wave count has a good Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii), and good alternation between minuette waves (ii) and (iv).

The channel is drawn using Elliott’s second technique. When the upper edge is breached by at least one full hourly candlestick above and not touching the trend line, then assume minute wave i is over and minute wave ii has begun.

While minuette wave (v) is unfolding, the correction for micro wave 4 may not move into micro wave 1 price territory above 1,228.73. If this invalidation point is breached before the structure of minuette wave (v) looks complete, then my labelling within minuette wave (v) would be wrong; it is possible it may be over at today’s low.

When minute wave i is a complete five wave impulse, then minute wave ii may unfold over one to three days but may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 1,244.89. Minute wave ii may show up on the daily chart as one to three green candlesticks or doji.

Thereafter, minute wave iii downwards should exhibit an increase in momentum.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This alternate wave count expects that Gold is still within a bear market. Targets for new lows can be seen on weekly and monthly charts.

Within the bear market, a primary degree correction is underway.

Primary wave 2 is most likely to subdivide as a zigzag. Intermediate wave (A) is complete.

The alternate idea today reverts back to seeing the correction here labelled intermediate wave (B) (and for the main wave count it would be labelled intermediate wave (2) ) as a complete regular flat.

The next five up, for this alternate labelled intermediate wave (C) (and for the main wave count labelled intermediate wave (3) ), may have begun.

Within the impulse upwards, a first wave labelled minor wave 1 may now be complete. Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 1,181.41.

Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 above 1,374.81.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave 2 may be continuing lower as a zigzag.

The same idea here applies regarding the invalidation point for subminuette wave iv. Assume minor wave 2 is incomplete while price remains below 1,228.73. A new high above 1,228.73 could not be a fourth wave correction, so downwards movement should be complete.

This labelling fits best on the five minute chart, but it is also possible to see the structure of minute wave c as a complete five wave impulse.



Gold Weekly 2017
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The long upper wick and smaller real body on last week’s candlestick is slightly bearish. The decline in volume is also bearish.

The strongest weekly volume in recent weeks is a downwards week, and this too is bearish.

On Balance Volume is some distance away from resistance.

ADX continues to decline indicating no clear trend.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Two days now of downwards movement has declining volume. The fall in price is not supported by volume; the market fell of its own weight. This is suspicious, and it does not support the main Elliott wave count.

However, overall this chart remains fairly bearish. Reasonable weight should be given to the bearish signal from On Balance Volume. In conjunction with extreme ADX and bearish divergence with Stochastics, it looks reasonable to expect some more downwards movement here.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

It would be reasonable to expect GDX to find support here about the short term Fibonacci 13 day moving average.

Two days of downwards movement comes with a decline in volume. This small pullback does not have support from volume, so it would be reasonable to expect it may end here or very soon.

Watch On Balance Volume carefully tomorrow. One more downwards day would give a bearish signal. If that happens, it should be given substantial weight.

This analysis is published @ 06:42 p.m. EST.