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A little upwards movement fits the Elliott wave count.

The first in a series of second wave corrections may now be complete today.

Summary: The target for a deep pullback is at 1,148.

Follow my two Golden Rules of risk management:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Invest no more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This main wave count has a better fit for prior movement. To see the difference between this main wave count and the alternate below please refer to last historic analysis linked to above.

This main wave count expects Gold has had a primary degree trend change in December 2016. The new upwards wave is either a primary degree third wave, or a primary degree zigzag to complete a double zigzag.

Intermediate wave (1) is an impulse that may have lasted 23 days, two longer than a Fibonacci 21. Intermediate wave (2) may be unfolding as a very common expanded flat correction.

Within intermediate wave (2), minor wave A fits best as a regular flat and minor wave B is a zigzag. Minor wave B is longer than the common length of 1 to 1.38 times A, but within the allowable convention of up to two times the length of A.

The appropriate target for minor wave C is 2.618 the length of minor wave A.

So far intermediate wave (2) has lasted twenty sessions. Minor waves A and B have lasted a Fibonacci eight sessions each. If intermediate wave (2) exhibits a Fibonacci duration, it may be a total 34 sessions.

Alternatively, intermediate wave (2) may not exhibit a Fibonacci duration.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Minute wave i was complete. The bounce for Tuesday’s session looks like minute wave ii.

Importantly, the upwards movement labelled minute wave ii will only fit as a corrective structure. It does have a cursory look as a five, but that would violate two Elliott wave rules: the third wave would be the shortest, and the fourth wave would overlap back into first wave price territory. The conclusion must be that on the hourly chart there is most likely a five down (labelled minute wave i) followed now by a three up (labelled minute wave ii). This adds confidence that price is likely to continue to move lower.

The target for minute wave iii assumes it may exhibit the most common Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i.

Along the way down, upwards corrections may now find resistance at the upper edge of the base channel.

If price prints a full hourly candlestick above the upper edge of the base channel, then assume that minute wave ii is not over and is continuing further as a flat correction. This is possible. For this reason the invalidation point is left at the start of minute wave i at 1,244.89. Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This possibility is the risk today to short positions.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This alternate wave count expects that Gold is still within a bear market. Targets for new lows can be seen on weekly and monthly charts.

Within the bear market, a primary degree correction is underway.

Primary wave 2 is most likely to subdivide as a zigzag. Intermediate wave (A) is complete.

The alternate idea reverts back to seeing the correction here labelled intermediate wave (B) (and for the main wave count it would be labelled intermediate wave (2) ) as a complete regular flat.

The next five up, for this alternate labelled intermediate wave (C) (and for the main wave count labelled intermediate wave (3) ), may have begun.

Within the impulse upwards, a first wave labelled minor wave 1 may now be complete. Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 1,181.41.

Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 above 1,374.81.

This wave count now expects that Tuesday’s session was the start of a third wave up at two degrees. The red doji for the session with a long upper wick is bearish, so this does not support this wave count.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave 2 may be a complete zigzag.

This alternate wave count sees upwards movement from the low of Tuesday’s session as a first wave. But it will not fit and meet all Elliott wave rules if the five up is seen over at the high labelled minuette wave (b), so this high may be part of a correction for minute wave ii.

Minute wave ii here is seen as an expanded flat. But within minute wave ii, minuette wave (b) is much longer than the maximum allowable convention of twice the length of minuette wave (a). This means this part of the wave count has an exceptionally low probability.

I have not been able to see a solution which resolves this problem for this wave count.

My conclusion at this point in time is this alternate has further reduced in probability.

Within minor wave 3, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 1,219.88.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The long upper wick and smaller real body on last week’s candlestick is slightly bearish. The decline in volume is also bearish.

The strongest weekly volume in recent weeks is a downwards week, and this too is bearish.

On Balance Volume is some distance away from resistance.

ADX continues to decline indicating no clear trend.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Price moved higher for Tuesday’s session but the candlestick closed red and the balance of volume during the session was downwards. This volume shows an increase beyond yesterday, so there is support here for downwards movement today. This supports the main Elliott wave count.

Today’s doji with a long upper wick is bearish.

Price is finding resistance about 1,240 and support about 1,225. Next support is about 1,205.

After reaching extreme with ADX for the last upwards wave, a pullback here is a reasonable expectation. It should be long lasting enough and deep enough to bring ADX down from extreme and Stochastics back down from overbought. That has not happened yet.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

GDX today has a good bearish signal from On Balance Volume. These trend line breaks by OBV should be given reasonable weight. This indicates it is likely now that GDX may break below the short term Fibonacci 13 day moving average.

This analysis is published @ 05:23 p.m. EST.