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A new low below 1,202.92 invalidated the alternate hourly Elliott wave count and added confidence to the main hourly Elliott wave count.

Summary: The target for this next wave down to end is at 1,154. If a new high above 1,214.91 is seen, then expect some more upwards movement to end between 1,219.11 to 1,233.43.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This main wave count has a better fit for prior movement. To see the difference between this main wave count and the alternate below please refer to last historic analysis linked to above.

This main wave count expects Gold has had a primary degree trend change in December 2016. The new upwards wave is either a primary degree third wave, or a primary degree zigzag to complete a double zigzag.

At this stage, the degree of labelling within intermediate wave (2) is tentatively moved up one degree. Minor wave A is complete and now minor wave B may be complete. If this is correct, then minor wave C down should be relatively time consuming. Intermediate wave (2) at its end should be somewhat in proportion to intermediate wave (1), which lasted 30 days. Intermediate wave (2) is expected to last a Fibonacci 21 or 34 days.

The first in a series of second wave corrections for Gold’s new impulses is usually very deep. Intermediate wave (2) is expected to be at least 0.618 the depth of intermediate wave (1), and very likely may be deeper. It may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,123.08.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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A movement at intermediate degree should begin with a five down at the hourly chart level. This may now be complete.

Minor wave A is seen here as a five wave impulse.

The target for minor wave C expects intermediate wave (2) to be very deep.

Minor wave A lasted a Fibonacci three days, and minor wave B also lasted a Fibonacci three days. Minor wave C may last 15 days if intermediate wave (2) totals a Fibonacci 21 sessions. It may also last only seven days if intermediate wave (2) totals a Fibonacci thirteen sessions.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

What if the main wave count is invalidated with a new high above 1,214.91? What else could be happening?

This alternate sees minor wave A downwards as a single zigzag. This will fit but is not as good a fit as the main wave count, which sees it as a five wave impulse.

Minor wave B may be continuing higher as a single zigzag. Within minor wave B, minute wave a may have been a five wave impulse. Within the impulse, the last wave of minuette wave (v) looks forced. This wave count is possible, but it does not have as neat a fit as the main wave count. This must reduce the probability.

This wave count should only be used if a new high above 1,214.91 is seen.

Upwards movement is still expected to be minor wave B, but here intermediate wave (2) may be unfolding as a flat correction. The most common type of flat correction is an expanded flat where minor wave B would make a new high above the start of minor wave A at 1,219.11.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This alternate wave count expects that Gold is still within a bear market. Targets for new lows can be seen on weekly and monthly charts.

Within the bear market, a primary degree correction is underway.

Primary wave 2 is most likely to subdivide as a zigzag. Intermediate wave (A) is complete and a correction for intermediate wave (B) has begun.

Intermediate wave (B) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A) below 1,123.08.

Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 above 1,374.81.



Gold Weekly 2017
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Last week completes a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. This is the most reliable reversal pattern. It is supported by an increase in volume from the prior week. Price has found strong resistance about 1,220.

On Balance Volume gives a weak bearish signal last week with a break below the yellow line. The signal is weak because the line has been broken before.

At the weekly chart level, ADX indicates no clear trend.


Gold Daily 2016
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An inside day moved price overall lower during the session. Downwards movement does not have support from volume.

The long lower wick on today’s candlestick gives cause for concern over the main Elliott wave count as does light volume. The alternate is today published for this reason.

On Balance Volume is at support at the yellow trend line, but this is very weak. If OBV breaks below this trend line tomorrow, then it should be redrawn.

RSI is not extreme. There is room for the market to rise or fall.

ADX has slightly declined today indicating the market may no longer be trending. ATR remains flat in agreement.

Price should find strong resistance about 1,225 and support about 1,179. Price recently found resistance and Stochastics was overbought. A downwards swing may be expected to continue overall until price finds support and Stochastics reaches oversold. These swings during a consolidating market rarely (almost never) move in straight lines, so this may be what is happening here.

Bollinger Bands continue to contract as the consolidation continues.

During the consolidation which began back on the 18th of January, it is the downwards day of the 25th of January that has strongest volume suggesting a downwards breakout may be more likely than upwards.


GDX Daily 2017
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GDX had a sharp spike upwards to reach resistance at 25.00. The balance of volume for this session is downwards. The long upper wick on today’s candlestick for GDX is bearish.

Lighter volume suggests that for GDX this market fell of its own weight along with Gold today. This offers some small concern for the expectation of a downwards trend developing from here.

ADX is increasing, indicating an upwards trend that is not extreme. ATR increased today in agreement with ADX.

On Balance Volume is at support. This line has a reasonable slope, has been held now for some time, and is tested four times so far. A break below this line would be a bearish signal but not a very strong one.

There is divergence today between the new high for GDX and RSI indicating some weakness in upwards movement. This is bearish.

Stochastics is not extreme, so there is room for price to rise further.

Bollinger Bands are contracting, indicating either a weakening trend or a consolidation.

This analysis is published @ 08:42 p.m. EST.