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Two hourly Elliott wave counts look at two possible scenarios for the next session.

Summary: The target for this next wave down to end is at 1,164 – 1,160. First, a breach of the Elliott channel on the hourly charts is required for any confidence in a high. A new low below 1,205.64 would add confidence. If a new high above 1,225.11 is seen, then expect some more upwards movement to a target at 1,232.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This main wave count has a better fit for prior movement. To see the difference between this main wave count and the alternate below please refer to last historic analysis linked to above.

This main wave count expects Gold has had a primary degree trend change in December 2016. The new upwards wave is either a primary degree third wave, or a primary degree zigzag to complete a double zigzag.

At this stage, the degree of labelling within intermediate wave (2) is tentatively moved up one degree. Minor wave A is complete and now minor wave B may be complete. If this is correct, then minor wave C down should be relatively time consuming. Intermediate wave (2) at its end should be somewhat in proportion to intermediate wave (1), which lasted 30 days. Intermediate wave (2) is expected to last a Fibonacci 21 or 34 days.

Intermediate wave (2) is labelled as an incomplete expanded flat correction. These are very common structures. Within them their B waves make a new price extreme beyond the start of the A wave. B waves of expanded flats should exhibit clear and strong weakness.

The first in a series of second wave corrections for Gold’s new impulses is usually very deep. Intermediate wave (2) is expected to be at least 0.618 the depth of intermediate wave (1), and may be deeper. It may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,123.08.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Minor wave A is seen as a zigzag for both wave counts today. The difference between the two is the structure of minute wave c within minor wave B.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves a and c.

The target is a small $4 zone calculated at two degrees. It assumes the most common Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C for an expanded flat.

A new low below the Elliott channel would add reasonable confidence to this wave count. Look out for price to breach the channel, then bounce up and retest the underside for resistance. If price behaves like that, it would offer a good entry to join a downwards trend.

A new low below 1,205.64 would invalidate the second hourly chart below and provide some confidence in a trend change. A new low below the start of minor wave A at 1,181.42 would add further confidence.

It is up to each member on how to approach this today according to risk appetite.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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It is possible that Gold may yet see one more high before it turns.

At 1,232 minute wave c would reach equality with minute wave a. This target calculation is within the normal range for minor wave B, so if a new high is seen then use this target.

Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory below 1,205.64. It is not possible to place minuette wave (i) any lower down.

If this wave count is correct, then price should stay within the upper half of the Elliott channel.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This alternate wave count expects that Gold is still within a bear market. Targets for new lows can be seen on weekly and monthly charts.

Within the bear market, a primary degree correction is underway.

Primary wave 2 is most likely to subdivide as a zigzag. Intermediate wave (A) is complete and a correction for intermediate wave (B) has begun.

Intermediate wave (B) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A) below 1,123.08.

Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 above 1,374.81.



Gold Weekly 2017
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Last week completes a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. This is the most reliable reversal pattern. It is supported by an increase in volume from the prior week. Price has found strong resistance about 1,220.

On Balance Volume gives a weak bearish signal last week with a break below the yellow line. The signal is weak because the line has been broken before.

At the weekly chart level, ADX indicates no clear trend.


Gold Daily 2016
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Yesterday’s long lower wick looked bullish. Now today’s long upper wick looks bearish. Price has again found resistance exactly at the sloping yellow trend line.

A very slight increase in volume today is very slightly bullish. The balance of volume today was upwards.

On Balance Volume has bounced up from the yellow line. A break below this line would be a weak bearish signal. If OBV continues higher, it may find resistance at the purple line.

From the high of the 17th of January, 2016, to today’s new high there is bearish divergence between price and RSI (red lines). This is more reliable than divergence with price and Stochastics. This divergence indicates weakness and supports the Elliott wave count, and this is exactly how B waves should look.

ADX is indicating an upwards trend, which is not yet extreme. There is plenty of room for this trend to continue.

ATR is overall flat still. If a new upwards trend is developing, it may be starting out slowly. Alternatively, ATR remaining flat may indicate something wrong with this upwards trend; that is what should happen if it is a B wave and not a new trend. This supports the Elliott wave count.

Stochastics is not extreme, but it shows strong divergence with price. However, this can persist for reasonable periods of time before price turns.

Bollinger Bands continue to contract. This is more normal of a consolidation than a trend.


GDX Daily 2017
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GDX is finding resistance mostly at the blue sloping line, with one overshoot.

The very long upper wick on yesterday’s candlestick is bearish. Now followed by a very small doji this puts the expectation of a trend from up to neutral.

Volume is declining as price is rising overall. This is not normal for a healthy and sustainable trend.

ADX still indicates an upwards trend is in place, which is not yet extreme.

ATR is overall flat.

On Balance Volume continues to find support at the yellow line. It has not yet given any signal.

There is very slight divergence today between price and RSI back to the 24th of January, 2016. This indicates some weakness, but it is so slight it should not be given much weight.

Stochastics exhibits stronger divergence. This is bearish.

Bollinger Bands have been contracting since the 17th of January. This is normal for the end of a trend.

There is some concern here if expecting GDX is still in an upwards trend. The apparent breakout yesterday was quickly reversed. GDX continues to find resistance about 25.00 and support about 22.75. A breakout above or below this range is required for any confidence in the next direction for GDX.

This analysis is published @ 07:53 p.m. EST.