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Price has moved lower which was allowed for but not what was expected. Price remains above the invalidation point on the hourly chart.

Summary: A little confidence may be had in a trend change, but hesitancy in price at the start of a possible new trend is concerning. It is possible we may see another low and the second hourly chart illustrates this risk. Long positions absolutely must have a stop. Realistically, it should be just below the last low at 1,194.50. The target in the first instance is 1,452.

Members may still like to consider a short position to hedge long positions, at least partially. Short hedges should have stops just above 1,211.06 and a target may be at 1,168.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last weekly charts are here and the last video on weekly wave counts is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This daily chart will suffice for both weekly charts.

Upwards movement is either a third wave (first weekly chart) to unfold as an impulse, or a Y wave (second weekly chart) to unfold as a zigzag. If upwards movement is a zigzag for primary wave Y, then it would be labelled intermediate waves (A) – (B) and now (C) to unfold.

Intermediate wave (1) or (A) is a complete five wave impulse lasting 39 days. Intermediate wave (2) or (B) so far looks like an expanded flat, which is a very common structure.

Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure. The structure may now be complete (first hourly chart below) or it may require a final low (second hourly chart below).

If intermediate wave (2) is over at Friday’s low, then it would have lasted 22 sessions; this may be considered close enough to a Fibonacci 21 to exhibit a Fibonacci duration.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,123.08.

If this wave count is correct, then at its end minor wave C will provide a very good opportunity to join the longer term upwards trend.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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To see the entire structure of minor wave C downwards, from the high on the 27th of February, see hourly charts published here.

Price has broken out strongly above the Elliott channel and this offers some confidence that a low may be in place.

Upwards movement will fit well as a five wave structure. So far downwards movement still looks strongly like a three wave structure. If this portion of the analysis is correct, then Gold has completed a five up and a three down and this adds a little more confidence to the idea of a trend change.

Minute wave ii may have ended deeper than the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i. Second wave corrections can be very deep; this is not unusual. There is no longer a Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (a) and (c).

It looks like minute wave ii has curved down to test support at the upper edge of the channel. This looks like typical price behaviour.

If it continues any lower, minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 1,195.22.

A new high short term above 1,204.28 would invalidate the second hourly chart below and provide a little confidence in this first hourly chart.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Minute wave iv may have completed as a shallow zigzag. Fourth waves are not always contained neatly within channels, and that is why Elliott developed a second technique to redraw the channel when the fourth wave breaches it. This channel is redrawn with the first trend line from the ends of minute waves ii to iv, then a parallel copy on the end of minute wave iii. Minute wave v may end midway within the channel if the target is met.

It is also possible that the target is too high. The next reasonable target may be the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) at 1,168.

With minute wave iv moving higher, the target for minute wave v is recalculated for this second hourly chart.

If minute wave iv continues as a double zigzag, then it may not move into minute wave i price territory above 1,251.17.

This wave count remains possible. This illustrates the risk now to long positions.

If minute wave v is continuing lower, then it looks like it may be unfolding as an impulse. Within minute wave v, minuette wave (iii) would be incomplete.

Minuette wave (iii) may only subdivide as an impulse. Within minuette wave (iii), subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory above 1,204.28. In the short term, invalidation of the first invalidation point would reduce this wave count’s probability. If that happens, then it may be possible that minute wave iv is continuing sideways as a triangle or combination.



Gold Weekly 2017
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Last week completes a red candlestick that closed with lighter volume than the week prior. This offers small support for the Elliott wave count that sees downwards movement over here or very soon. However, price can continue to fall for a few more weeks of its own weight.

On Balance Volume has some distance to go to find support or resistance. It is not very useful at this time on the weekly time frame.

ADX indicates no clear trend.


Gold Daily 2016
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The last two daily candlesticks look corrective with small real bodies and very light volume. The downwards movement today was not supported by volume. Overall, they both together fit the second hourly chart better than the first. If a small consolidation is completing, then it may be followed by another low for Gold.

The downwards trend may yet continue further: RSI is not oversold, ADX now indicates a downwards trend, and although Stochastics is oversold it may remain extreme for longer and may develop multiple divergence before a low is found.

Declining ATR and strong bullish divergence with On Balance Volume indicates the downwards trend may be over sooner rather than later.

Overall, this chart is neutral.



GDX Daily 2016
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A strong downwards day closes back below prior support on a day with strong volume. The upper wick of today’s candlestick is bearish. Volume today is only a little lighter than the strong upwards day two days ago.

This chart is still mostly bullish: ADX is extreme, RSI reached oversold, and Stochastics reached oversold. It still looks reasonable to expect a more time consuming consolidation or a trend change here or soon to resolve these extreme conditions.

This analysis is published @ 08:34 p.m. EST.