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A strong breach of the base channel on the main hourly Elliott wave count shifted probability from bullish to bearish. The alternate Elliott wave count was then preferred because it expected more downwards movement.

Summary: The new main wave count expects a deep pullback to a target at 1,197 – 1,192. This may be met in 5 or 18 sessions if intermediate wave (2) exhibits a Fibonacci duration of 21 or 34 days.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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Intermediate wave (1) is a complete five wave impulse lasting 39 days. Intermediate wave (2) so far looks like an expanded flat, which are very common structures. The most likely point for it to end would be close to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) at 1,197. This is also close to where minor wave C would reach the most common Fibonacci ratio to minor wave A at 1,192, so this target zone has a good probability.

Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure. It would be extremely likely to make at least a slight new low below the end of minor wave A at 1,217.05 to avoid a truncation and a very rare running flat.

So far intermediate wave (2) has lasted 16 sessions. If it exhibits a Fibonacci duration, it may total 21 or 34 sessions and that would see it continue now for a further 5 or 18 sessions.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,123.08.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Within minor wave C, minute waves i and ii may be complete. Minute wave iii may be incomplete.

The best fit channel contains all downwards movement so far. If price comes up again to touch the upper edge, that may offer an entry point to join the downwards trend. If price breaks below the lower edge, then that may provide resistance.

Confirmation of this wave count would now come with a new low below 1,217.05. That would invalidate the new alternate wave count below.

When minute wave iii is complete, then minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory above 1,251.17.

The final fifth wave of minute wave v may exhibit a selling climax (opposite of a blow off top). This is common for commodities. Minute wave v may be a swift and very strong extension.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This is a variation on yesterday’s main wave count. Downwards movement strongly breached the base channel drawn on yesterday’s main wave count and that idea now looks wrong. The end of minute wave i is moved higher and on the hourly chart this upwards wave will fit as a five although it does look like a three at the daily chart level.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 1,217.05.

The black base channel about intermediate waves (1) and (2) should provide support to lower degree second wave corrections along the way up. Minute wave ii should be over here.

If the lower edge of this base channel is breached, then this alternate wave count may be discarded prior to invalidation with a new low below 1,217.05.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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The best fit channel is drawn the same way on both hourly charts because this best contains all downwards movement.

For this alternate, if that channel is fully breached by at least one hourly candlestick (preferably two) of upwards movement (not sideways) above and not touching the upper edge, that shall provide a very strong indication that this alternate wave count may be correct.

If that happens, then probability would switch back from bear to bull.

A new high above 1,251.17 would add reasonable confidence at that stage to this alternate wave count.



Gold Weekly 2017
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The last four weekly candlesticks are all green and all show a constant decline in volume. At the weekly chart level, this supports the alternate wave count but is very concerning for the main wave count. A third wave up at multiple degrees should have good support from volume.

On Balance Volume is nearing resistance, but it is not there yet.

RSI is not overbought. There is room for price to rise further.

ADX indicates a possible trend change from down to up, but does not yet indicate there is an upwards trend.


Gold Daily 2016
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With a strong red daily candlestick closing well back within a prior consolidation zone, the prior upwards breakout now looks false. Sometimes this happens.

Yesterday had an increase in volume for a downwards day and today price moved strongly lower with a decline in volume. The market fell of its own weight today. The fall in price was not supported today by volume.

There is some strong support about 1,225. A bounce may be seen there.

On Balance Volume gives a reasonable bearish signal today.

On Balance Volume is bearish, ADX is bearish, Stochastics is bearish, ATR today is bearish, and today’s candlestick is bearish.

RSI is neutral. Bollinger Bands are neutral.

Overall, the picture today looks more clearly bearish than yesterday.

This does not mean price must print only red candlesticks from here. Trends do not move in straight lines; they have counter trend movements within them and those present an opportunity to join a trend.

At this stage, this downwards movement should be classified as a pullback within an upwards trend, but it looks like it is in the early stages. It needs to move lower to bring ADX down from extreme and Stochastics down to oversold.

If members are trying to trade this counter trend movement, then please be advised it may be choppy and overlapping. Reduce exposure to only 1-3% of equity for any one trade. Always use a stop.



GDX Daily 2016
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Volume is supporting the fall in price.

ADX is bearish, ATR is bearish, and Bollinger Bands are bearish in that they are widening as the market trends lower. Price can sit at the lower edge of Bollinger Bands for a few days during a trend, as it has been for four days now. Expect a small consolidation to move price sideways here or soon. Thereafter, then the downwards trend may resume.

This analysis is published @ 07:51 p.m. EST.