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Downwards movement continued as expected for the main Elliott wave count.

Summary: If members have profitable short positions opened below 1,248, consider taking profits.

Watch how price behaves carefully when markets open on Monday. If the channel on the second hourly chart is breached, then expect a deep second wave correction is underway. For more aggressive traders, at its end this may present an opportunity to join the new short term downwards trend.

One approach to this market may be to set an order to open a short position if price gets up to 1,248, with a stop just above 1,263.64. Because this downwards movement this week is a counter trend pullback reduce risk to only 1-3% of equity, and always use a stop.

The new main wave count expects a deep pullback to a target at 1,197 – 1,192. This may be met in 5 or 18 sessions if intermediate wave (2) exhibits a Fibonacci duration of 21 or 34 days.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (1) is a complete five wave impulse lasting 39 days. Intermediate wave (2) so far looks like an expanded flat, which are very common structures. The most likely point for it to end would be close to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) at 1,197. This is also close to where minor wave C would reach the most common Fibonacci ratio to minor wave A at 1,192, so this target zone has a good probability.

Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure. It would be extremely likely to make at least a slight new low below the end of minor wave A at 1,217.05 to avoid a truncation and a very rare running flat.

So far intermediate wave (2) has lasted 17 sessions. If it exhibits a Fibonacci duration, it may total 21 or 34 sessions and that would see it continue now for a further 4 or 17 sessions.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,123.08.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. It does look more likely that an impulse is developing at this stage, but it is not possible to rule out a diagonal.

Minute waves i and ii are seen still as complete. Minute wave iii is seen still as incomplete.

Minute wave iii may only subdivide as an impulse. It is common for Gold to exhibit very strong extended fifth waves within its third wave impulses. Look out for minuette wave (v) to be very strong, possibly ending with a selling climax.

If minuette wave (iii) is over as labelled on this chart, then it is reasonably close to equality in length with minuette wave (i), close enough to say they exhibit a Fibonacci ratio. Importantly, minuette wave (iii) is longer than minuette wave (i), so the core Elliott wave rule stating a third wave may not be the shortest is met. What this means is that minuette wave (v) is not limited in length now by minuette wave (iii). It may be extended.

Minuette wave (iv) should be over here as there is almost no room for it to move into. It may be finding strong resistance at the upper edge of the channel.

If this wave count is right, then each time the upper edge of the channel is touched represents an opportunity to join the short term downwards trend.

Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory above 1,237.18.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible that a five wave impulse downwards completed on Friday. This may be minute wave i within the impulse of minor wave C.

Minute wave ii may correct to about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio at 1,248. Second waves are most commonly deep.

If price breaks above the upper edge of the channel on Monday morning, then this second wave count should be preferred. Look out for a bounce. That may present a good opportunity to join the new downwards trend.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 1,217.05.

The black base channel about intermediate waves (1) and (2) should provide support to lower degree second wave corrections along the way up. Minute wave ii should be over here.

If the lower edge of this base channel is breached, then this alternate wave count may be discarded prior to invalidation with a new low below 1,217.05.

At this stage, the lower edge of the base channel is overshot but not breached. A breach would constitute a full daily candlestick below and not touching the lower edge.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The best fit channel is showing exactly where upwards movement ended for Friday’s session.

For this alternate, if the best fit channel is fully breached by at least one hourly candlestick (preferably two) of upwards movement (not sideways) above and not touching the upper edge, that shall provide a very strong indication that this alternate wave count may be correct.

If that happens, then probability would switch back from bear to bull.

A new high above 1,250.36 would add reasonable confidence at that stage to this alternate wave count.



Gold Weekly 2017
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The last four upwards weeks are all green and showed a decline in volume. Now this week is red and shows a strong increase in volume. This weekly candlestick completes a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, the most reliable reversal pattern.

This indicates strongly that upwards movement is over for now. Either sideways or downwards movement from here is a reasonable expectation.

On Balance Volume has still not found resistance.

ADX still indicates the market is not yet trending at the weekly time frame.


Gold Daily 2016
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There is strong support for price about 1,220, the lower edge of the prior consolidation.

Volume shows an increase for Friday. The downwards movement in price has support. This is bearish.

ADX is still not down below the directional lines. This pullback likely has further to go and this too is bearish.

Stochastics is not yet oversold and this too is bearish.

Bollinger Bands are contracting further. If this is a counter trend movement, then that makes sense. This is neither bullish nor bearish.

On Balance Volume now is giving a very clear bearish signal. This should be taken very seriously. This supports the main Elliott wave count strongly over the alternate.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The fall in price had some support from volume this week. Now Friday completes a lower low and a lower high, the definition of a downwards day, but the session closed green and the balance of volume during Friday was upwards. Upwards movement during Friday’s session shows a decline in volume, so it did not have support. This is interpreted as bearish. This looks like a counter trend bounce.

This chart looks overall very bearish. Look for possible bounces as each support line is found. Next support is about 19.95.

This analysis is published @ 12:10 a.m. EST on 4th March, 2017.