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Upwards movement continues as expected. Members have been advised to move stops up now to protect some profit. Profit targets are still the same. A new channel on the hourly chart will be used to manage long positions.

Summary: The strongest move is still most likely ahead. The target may be reached in a few more days.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This daily chart will suffice for both weekly charts.

Upwards movement at primary degree is either a third wave (first weekly chart) to unfold as an impulse, or a Y wave (second weekly chart) to unfold as a zigzag. If upwards movement is a zigzag for primary wave Y, then it would be labelled intermediate waves (A) – (B) and now (C) to unfold.

Intermediate wave (1) or (A) is a complete five wave impulse lasting 39 days. Intermediate wave (2) or (B) looks like an expanded flat, which is a very common structure.

So far, within intermediate wave (3) or (C), minor waves 1 and 2 are now complete. Minor wave 3 looks to have begun. Within minor wave 3, no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 1,240.24.

A cyan trend line is added to all charts. Draw it from the high in October 2012 to the high in July 2016. This line has been tested five times. When price gets back up to this line, it is likely to offer strong resistance.

The cyan trend line is still some distance away. This may be where minor wave 3 ends, or it may be only where minute wave iii within minor wave 3 ends.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The middle of the third wave may pass in the next 24 hours if my labelling of this hourly chart is correct. There is a little weak divergence at the high for Wednesday on the hourly chart, but this high does not look like the end of subminuette wave iii.

Draw an acceleration channel about minuette wave (iii). As price moves higher keep redrawing the channel: the first trend line from the last high to the high of minuette wave (i) and a parallel copy on the low of minuette wave (ii), then a mid line.

Price may now sit within the upper half of this channel.

The upcoming corrections for subminuette wave iv, minuette wave (iv), and minute wave iv are all expected to be brief and shallow. If minor wave 3 ends with a blowoff top, then minute wave iv may be very brief and shallow; it may not show up on the daily chart.

If this wave count is correct, then each time price comes down to the mid line of the channel may present another opportunity to join the upwards trend.

Gold often exhibits strong extended third waves, and even stronger fifth waves. One or more of minor wave 3, intermediate wave (3) or primary wave 3 may end with blow off tops. The strongest upwards movement for this wave count is still ahead.

For the short term, micro wave 1 may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1 below 1,272.79.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The relatively long upper wicks of the last two weekly candlesticks are a little bearish. The increase in volume last week is bullish.

The purple trend line on On Balance Volume has been carefully drawn to be as conservative as possible, sitting along the prior two highs. This trend line has a very shallow slope and is reasonably long held. It has only been tested twice before. It has some reasonable technical significance. Last week it is slightly breached offering a reasonable bullish signal. However, for the signal to have more weight it needs a clearer breach.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

I do not have confidence in the data from StockCharts for the daily candlestick for the 12th of April. As the session ended, I did not see a spike down to 1,278, which is their close, and creates the long upper wick on their candlestick.

Technical analysis of today’s candlestick will use BarChart data which more closely mirrors how I saw the session end.

If the candlestick on BarChart data is correct, then it is bullish. If volume for StockCharts data is correct, then bulls did not have support from volume during this session. However, for one day of lighter volume this is not necessarily a cause for concern. Notice that during the last rise from 15th December, 2016, to 17th January, 2017, there were days with lighter volume but overall volume increased as price moved higher. It does not have to be a consistent increase for a bull trend to be healthy.

On Balance Volume remains bullish.

RSI is not yet overbought, but this may move into overbought and then become more extreme during a third wave for Gold. Look back at February 2016 and see how RSI behaved there. It reached extreme in the early stage of the third wave and reached very extreme over 85 at the end with the blowoff top.

RSI will be considered in conjunction with ADX. ADX is not yet extreme, nor is RSI. There is still plenty of room for this upwards trend to continue here.

Stochastics is not overbought.

Again, the only concern today is contracting Bollinger Bands. It is expected they should begin to expand strongly now.


Stops may be moved up to 1,240.24 *edit: 1,272.79 to protect a reasonable profit. Each time price comes down towards the mid line of the parallel channel on the hourly chart may present another opportunity to join the trend.

Profit targets may be set at 1,333 in the first instance.

As always, risk management is the single most important aspect of trading. Take it seriously. My two Golden Rules are:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Next resistance is at the 200 day moving average, then about 25.00.

Look for price to possibly curve down to test support at prior resistance, about 23.75. This does not always happen, but it happens often enough for it to be a tendency to look out for.

Although Stochastics is overbought, this oscillator may remain extreme for long periods of time during a strong trend.

This trend still looks young despite Stochastics being overbought. RSI is not yet extreme and ADX is not extreme. Today’s longer lower wick on the daily candlestick looks bullish.

This analysis is published @ 09:45 p.m. EST.