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A shallow consolidation was expected for Friday and Monday.

Monday completes a doji, which is essentially sideways movement, as expected.

Summary: In the short term, a shallow consolidation may unfold for Friday and Monday while NYSE is closed for Easter. Thereafter, the upwards trend may be expected to continue because it is not yet extreme and the Elliott wave structure is incomplete. A blow off top is fairly likely to be ahead, maybe to the end of next week. The target for now is still at 1,333. If it is adjusted, it may be moved higher.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This daily chart will suffice for both weekly charts.

Upwards movement at primary degree is either a third wave (first weekly chart) to unfold as an impulse, or a Y wave (second weekly chart) to unfold as a zigzag. If upwards movement is a zigzag for primary wave Y, then it would be labelled intermediate waves (A) – (B) and now (C) to unfold. It is most likely a third wave because cycle wave a is most likely to subdivide as an impulse.

Intermediate wave (1) or (A) is a complete five wave impulse lasting 39 days. Intermediate wave (2) or (B) looks like an expanded flat, which is a very common structure.

So far, within intermediate wave (3) or (C), minor waves 1 and 2 are now complete. Minor wave 3 looks to have begun. Within minor wave 3, the middle portion for minute wave iii may now be complete. Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory below 1,261.00.

Minute wave v is expected to be very strong, possibly ending with a blow off top.

A cyan trend line is added to all charts. Draw it from the high in October 2012 to the high in July 2016. This line has been tested five times. Price is finding resistance at the cyan trend line now. If price can break through resistance here after some consolidation, then that may release energy to the upside for the end of minor wave 3.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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There will be only this one hourly chart today. The other idea published in last analysis no longer looks right.

Minute wave ii was a deep 0.79 double zigzag, which lasted 25 hours, and on the daily chart it shows as only one session.

Given the guideline of alternation, minute wave iv may be expected to most likely be a flat, combination or triangle. All of these structures may include a new high above its start at 1,294.96 as part of the correction. A new high does not indicate minute wave iv is over.

So far a zigzag may have completed lower and this may be only minuette wave (a) of a flat or triangle, or minuette wave (w) of a combination.

If minute wave iv is a flat correction, then minuette wave (b) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of minuette wave (a) at 1,293.60 (this calculation assumes subminuette wave c of minuette wave (a) is complete and will not move lower).

The normal range of minuette wave (b) within a flat correction would be from 1,294.96 to 1,299.78.

There is no minimum requirement for minuette wave (b) within a triangle, nor minuette wave (x) within a combination. They both only need a three wave structure upwards to complete.

So far minute wave iv has lasted 25 hours. Flats, triangles and combinations are usually longer lasting structures than single and multiple zigzags. Minute wave iv may end within the next session, or it may possibly take a little longer.

The Elliott channel is drawn using Elliott’s first technique: the first trend line is drawn from the ends of minute waves i to iii, then a parallel copy is placed upon the end of minute wave ii. This channel does not perfectly contain the start of minute wave iii, but it may still assist to show where minute wave iv finds support.

Fourth waves are not always contained within these channels though. If minute wave iv moves below the lower pink trend line, then the channel must be redrawn using the second technique when minute wave iv is complete.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The relatively long upper wicks of the last two weekly candlesticks are a little bearish. The increase in volume last week is bullish.

The purple trend line on On Balance Volume has been carefully drawn to be as conservative as possible, sitting along the prior two highs. This trend line has a very shallow slope and is reasonably long held. It has only been tested twice before. It has some reasonable technical significance. Last week it is slightly breached offering a reasonable bullish signal. However, for the signal to have more weight it needs a clearer breach.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

I do not have confidence in the data from StockCharts for the daily candlestick for the 12th of April. As the session ended, I did not see a spike down to 1,278, which is their close, and creates the long upper wick on their candlestick.

The last two upwards days to complete green candlesticks came with some decline in volume. Monday’s session is an outside day and the balance of volume was down. Some further decline in volume does not support the upwards movement for price during Monday’s session.

RSI may remain overbought for some time and may yet become more extreme before a trend change. Stochastics may also remain extreme for long periods of time when Gold has strong trends.

RSI does not yet exhibit divergence with price and ADX is not yet extreme. There is still room for this trend to continue.


For swing traders who prefer a longer term position stops now technically should be set just below 1,261 to ensure a small consolidation does not close long positions.

Traders who have a shorter time frame may exit long positions to take profit when price moves a little higher within the B or X wave of this correction.

If exiting long positions here, be warned: the strongest upwards movement should still be ahead if this analysis is correct.

Profit targets may be set at 1,333 in the first instance.

As always, risk management is the single most important aspect of trading. Take it seriously. My two Golden Rules are:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.



GDX Daily 2016
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The last two sessions for GDX have seen red daily candlesticks with the balance of volume downwards. During these two sessions volume is declining. The fall in price does not have support from volume and looks more likely to be a small pullback.

There is no candlestick reversal signal at the high.

Trend lines for On Balance Volume are adjusted today.

Overall, this chart remains bullish to slightly neutral. Expect the trend to continue. Downwards movement along the way may be corrections within the trend.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

This study of a third wave will be left in daily analysis until the current third wave is either proven to be wrong (invalidated) or it is complete.

This third wave spans 59 trading days.

It was not until the 40th day that the overlapping ended and the third wave took off strongly.

The middle of the third wave is the end of minute wave iii, which ended in a blow off top.

There is excellent alternation between second and fourth wave corrections.

This third wave began with a series of five overlapping first and second waves (if the hourly chart were to be added, it would be seven) before momentum really builds and the overlapping ends.

The fifth wave of minuette wave (v) is the strongest portion.

This third wave curves upwards. This is typical of Gold’s strong impulses. They begin slowly, accelerate towards the middle, and explode at the end. They do not fit neatly into channels. In this instance, the gold coloured curve was used.

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

This trend began after a long consolidation period of which the upper edge is bound by the blue trend line. After the breakout above the blue trend line, price curved back down to test support at the line before moving up and away.

RSI reaches overbought while price continues higher for another five days and RSI reaches above 85. The point in time where RSI reaches overbought is prior to the strongest upwards movement.

ADX reached above 35 on the 9th of February, but price continued higher for another two days.

The lesson to be learned here: look for RSI to be extreme and ADX to be extreme at the same time, then look for a blow off top. Only then expect that the middle of a big third wave is most likely over.

The end of this big third wave only came after the blow off top was followed by shallow consolidation, and more highs. At its end RSI exhibited strong divergence with price and On Balance Volume gave a bearish signal.

Third waves require patience at their start and patience at their ends.

This analysis is published @ 10:22 p.m. EST.