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Last analysis expected upwards movement as fairly likely. This is what has happened. Targets are the same.

Summary: GDX has a low in place and it looks increasingly like Gold does too. Targets for minor wave B are either 1,245 or 1,264, and these are equally as likely. Minor wave B may be a quick sharp zigzag or a time consuming sideways movement lasting weeks. Reasonable confidence that minor wave B has begun may only be had when price breaks above the upper edge of the best fit channel on the hourly charts.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last historic analysis with monthly charts is here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.


For clarity I have decided at this time it may be best to publish on a daily basis weekly charts I and II. Both charts expect a zigzag down to complete and the difference is in the expected depth.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Combinations are very common structures. Cycle degree waves normally last one to several years, and B waves do tend to be more time consuming waves than all other waves. Given these tendencies the most likely scenario at this point may be that cycle wave b is an incomplete double combination.

The first structure in the double labelled primary wave W fits as a zigzag. This upwards movement will subdivide as either a three (zigzag) or a five (impulse). It does have a three wave look to it.

The double is joined by a deep three in the opposite direction labelled primary wave X, which is a 0.77 depth of primary wave W. X waves within double combinations are normally very deep; this one looks right.

The second structure in the combination may be either a triangle or a flat correction. Both of these structures have A waves which subdivide as threes.

At this stage, the upwards wave from the low in December 2016 does now look best and subdivide best as a completed zigzag. This may be intermediate wave (A) of a flat correction or a triangle. Because a triangle for primary wave Y would look essentially the same as the second weekly chart below, only a flat correction is considered here. The most common two structures in a double combination are a zigzag and a flat.

This wave count follows the most common scenario and has the best fit.

Within the flat correction of primary wave Y, intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 1,140.27. The most common length for intermediate wave (B) is from 1 to 1.38 times the length of intermediate wave (A), giving a common range from 1,123.08 to 1,057.77.

Intermediate wave (B) may subdivide as any corrective structure, but the most common structure for B waves within flats is a zigzag. At this stage, on the hourly chart it looks like a five down is almost complete, which would indicate intermediate wave (B) is a zigzag subdividing 5-3-5.

The daily and hourly charts will follow this weekly chart. That does not mean the other two weekly charts aren’t possible, they are, but the number of charts must be kept reasonable on a daily basis.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly II 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

What if cycle wave b is a triangle? This is also entirely possible. Triangles are not as common as double combinations, but they are not uncommon.

Within the triangle, primary waves A, B and C are all single zigzags. One of the five subwaves of a triangle normally subdivides as a more complicated multiple, usually a double zigzag. This may be what is unfolding for primary wave D.

Primary wave D of a regular contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08.

Primary wave D of a regular barrier triangle should end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line is essentially flat. What this means in practice is that primary wave D may end slightly below 1,123.08 and the triangle would remain valid. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.

Thereafter, primary wave E should unfold upwards and would most likely fall a little short of the A-C trend line. If not ending there, it may overshoot the A-C trend line.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This daily chart will suffice for both weekly charts above, although the labelling follows weekly chart I.

Both weekly charts expect a zigzag downwards. Weekly chart I expects a deep zigzag for intermediate wave (B) to a minimum at 1,140.27. Weekly chart II expects a zigzag down for primary wave D to not move below 1,123.08 and most likely fall well short of that point.

The daily chart follows the expectations for weekly chart I, but the structure for weekly chart II would be exactly the same.

Within the flat correction of primary wave Y, intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 1,140.27. The most likely corrective structures to achieve the deep correction required for B waves within flats are single or multiple zigzags. These begin with a five, then a three in the opposite direction. A five down for minor wave A may be complete. Minor wave B may have begun.

BarChart data shows a Morning Doji Star reversal pattern at the end of minor wave A. This pattern is not the strongest reversal pattern, but it is fairly reliable after a clear downwards trend. This indicates the downwards trend may end here and be followed by either sideways or upwards movement. Reversal patterns make no comment on how far nor how long the next trend may last.

Minor wave B may be deep but may not move beyond the start of minor wave A above 1,294.96.

B waves exhibit the greatest variety in form and behaviour of all waves. They can be quick sharp zigzags or complicated time consuming combinations. There are more than 23 possible corrective Elliott wave structures that B waves may take, and at their start it is impossible to tell which structure may unfold. B waves do not normally present good trading opportunities; they can be time consuming consolidations with strong whipsaws. However, minor degree B waves may present some opportunity, so it is essential when they unfold that risk is managed diligently. The risk of losses is greater during consolidations than during trending markets.

When minor waves A and B are complete, then a target may be calculated for minor wave C downwards to end the zigzag of intermediate wave (B), using the Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C. That cannot be done yet.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2 Hourly 2017
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Minor wave A may now be complete. There would be now a Fibonacci ratio between minute waves v and i.

Price is now within the upper half of the best fit channel, for the first time in a few days. This is the earliest indication that a low may be in place. Further confidence may be had if price breaks above the upper edge of the channel. Before that happens though expect some resistance at that trend line.

If minor wave B has begun here, then the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio at 1,245 and the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio at 1,264 would be targets. Neither of these ratios can be favoured; B waves exhibit huge variety.

If minor wave A is correctly labelled as a five wave impulse, then minor wave B may not make a new high above the start of minor wave A, at 1,294.96.

Minor degree waves normally last weeks. If minor wave A is complete here, then it would have lasted 3 weeks (16 sessions). Minor wave B may be reasonably expected to be about the same duration of three weeks.

At the hourly chart level, the first movement for a minor degree wave should be a five wave structure upwards. That would be still incomplete, so while it is unfolding no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 1,214.81.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

If minor wave B has begun, then it needs to complete a five up at the hourly chart level. So far that looks incomplete; what is currently labelled minuette wave (i) is too short for that expectation.

So far there may be two overlapping first and second waves complete. Within subminuette wave iii, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 1,221.13.

B waves exhibit great variety in structure. As this one unfolds the labelling within it will change and alternate wave counts for minor wave B will be required. It is impossible to tell at the start what structure it will be, and usually the structure is not clear until right at the end. Patience and flexibility are essential when analysing B waves.

Members are advised in the strongest possible terms to be diligent about managing risk if choosing to trade this B wave. Accept the risk of trading a correction (be prepared for losses) and manage risk to protect your account, so it is crucial that stops are used. Also, take profits more quickly than usual.

This B wave may be an easy sharp upwards movement lasting only a week or so, or equally as likely it may be a big sideways consolidation with strong whipsaws lasting a few weeks.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This alternate idea today looks fairly unlikely, but all possibilities should be considered.

What if minor wave A is not over yet? What if only minute wave iv ended at today’s high?

Minute wave iv here is labelled as a double zigzag, but the second zigzag in the double barely deepens the correction. This is technically possible but does not have the right look.

If minute wave iv has just ended and minute wave v has begun, then a new target is calculated for it to end.

If the upper edge of the best fit channel is breached, then this alternate and any other which sees minor wave A as incomplete will be discarded based upon a very low probability.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

This weekly chart now looks bearish. Volume is bearish. The strong weekly candlestick looks very bearish.

Support for price and On Balance Volume may halt the fall in price temporarily, a bounce about here looks like a very reasonable expectation.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Yesterday’s candlestick completes a Harami reversal pattern. This is not a strong reversal pattern though, so further confirmation would be required for confidence that a low is in place. Today’s green daily candlestick provides nice confirmation of the reversal pattern.

On Balance Volume is bullish (give this indicator significant weight) and it offers good support to the main hourly Elliott wave count.

It is reasonable to expect a bounce here with ADX now at extreme level.

Volume is bullish. It looks like RSI is returning from oversold and Stochastics may be turning up to also return from oversold.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Price is very bullish. It has good support from volume.

On Balance Volume may find resistance here, but it looks like it may be beginning to break above resistance. If it does, that would be a strong bullish signal. If it turns down here, that would be a bearish signal.

With ADX declining, Bollinger Bands contracting, and ATR declining, it looks like this upwards movement is a bounce within a larger downwards trend.

If trading this upwards movement, it is essential that stops are used and risk is managed. This looks like a counter trend movement, albeit one which may last more than a week. Look for the upwards movement in price to possibly end when Stochastics reaches overbought.

This analysis is published @ 08:37 p.m. EST.