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Upwards movement has continued as expected. With some structure now to analyse, targets can be calculated.

Summary: A bounce has begun. It looks like a counter trend movement. Be diligent with risk management if trading this movement upwards. The target for Monday / Tuesday is 1,235 – 1,236.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last historic analysis with monthly charts is here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.


For clarity I have decided at this time it may be best to publish on a daily basis weekly charts I and II. Both charts expect a zigzag down to complete and the difference is in the expected depth.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Combinations are very common structures. Cycle degree waves normally last one to several years, and B waves do tend to be more time consuming waves than all other waves. Given these tendencies the most likely scenario at this point may be that cycle wave b is an incomplete double combination.

The first structure in the double labelled primary wave W fits as a zigzag. This upwards movement will subdivide as either a three (zigzag) or a five (impulse). It does have a three wave look to it.

The double is joined by a deep three in the opposite direction labelled primary wave X, which is a 0.77 depth of primary wave W. X waves within double combinations are normally very deep; this one looks right.

The second structure in the combination may be either a triangle or a flat correction. Both of these structures have A waves which subdivide as threes.

At this stage, the upwards wave from the low in December 2016 does now look best and subdivide best as a completed zigzag. This may be intermediate wave (A) of a flat correction or a triangle. Because a triangle for primary wave Y would look essentially the same as the second weekly chart below, only a flat correction is considered here. The most common two structures in a double combination are a zigzag and a flat.

This wave count follows the most common scenario and has the best fit.

Within the flat correction of primary wave Y, intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 1,140.27. The most common length for intermediate wave (B) is from 1 to 1.38 times the length of intermediate wave (A), giving a common range from 1,123.08 to 1,057.77.

Intermediate wave (B) may subdivide as any corrective structure, but the most common structure for B waves within flats is a zigzag. At this stage, on the hourly chart it looks like a five down is now complete, which would indicate intermediate wave (B) is a zigzag subdividing 5-3-5.

The daily and hourly charts will follow this weekly chart. That does not mean the other two weekly charts aren’t possible, they are, but the number of charts must be kept reasonable on a daily basis.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly II 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

What if cycle wave b is a triangle? This is also entirely possible. Triangles are not as common as double combinations, but they are not uncommon.

Within the triangle, primary waves A, B and C are all single zigzags. One of the five subwaves of a triangle normally subdivides as a more complicated multiple, usually a double zigzag. This may be what is unfolding for primary wave D.

Primary wave D of a regular contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08.

Primary wave D of a regular barrier triangle should end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line is essentially flat. What this means in practice is that primary wave D may end slightly below 1,123.08 and the triangle would remain valid. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.

Thereafter, primary wave E should unfold upwards and would most likely fall a little short of the A-C trend line. If not ending there, it may overshoot the A-C trend line.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This daily chart will suffice for both weekly charts above, although the labelling follows weekly chart I.

Both weekly charts expect a zigzag downwards. Weekly chart I expects a deep zigzag for intermediate wave (B) to a minimum at 1,140.27. Weekly chart II expects a zigzag down for primary wave D to not move below 1,123.08 and most likely fall well short of that point.

The daily chart follows the expectations for weekly chart I, but the structure for weekly chart II would be exactly the same.

Within the flat correction of primary wave Y, intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 1,140.27. The most likely corrective structures to achieve the deep correction required for B waves within flats are single or multiple zigzags. These begin with a five, then a three in the opposite direction. A five down for minor wave A may be complete. Minor wave B may have begun.

BarChart data shows a Morning Doji Star reversal pattern at the end of minor wave A. This pattern is not the strongest reversal pattern, but it is fairly reliable after a clear downwards trend. This indicates the downwards trend may end here and be followed by either sideways or upwards movement. Reversal patterns make no comment on how far nor how long the next trend may last.

Minor wave B may be deep but may not move beyond the start of minor wave A above 1,294.96.

B waves exhibit the greatest variety in form and behaviour of all waves. They can be quick sharp zigzags or complicated time consuming combinations. There are more than 23 possible corrective Elliott wave structures that B waves may take, and at their start it is impossible to tell which structure may unfold. B waves do not normally present good trading opportunities; they can be time consuming consolidations with strong whipsaws. However, minor degree B waves may present some opportunity, so it is essential when they unfold that risk is managed diligently. The risk of losses is greater during consolidations than during trending markets.

When minor waves A and B are complete, then a target may be calculated for minor wave C downwards to end the zigzag of intermediate wave (B), using the Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C. That cannot be done yet.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave B may be any one of more than 23 possible corrective structures.

So far a small five up is complete, labelled minuette wave (i) and that was followed by a three down labelled minuette wave (ii). Now another five up is incomplete, labelled minuette wave (iii).

If minor wave B is unfolding as a zigzag (or multiple zigzag), then minute wave a within it would be an impulse and would be incomplete.

If minor wave B is unfolding as a flat or triangle, then minute wave a within it would most likely be a zigzag and would be incomplete.

A-B-C of a zigzag subdivides 5-3-5, exactly the same as 1-2-3 of an impulse. When the next five up labelled minuette wave (iii) is complete, then alternate wave counts for the hourly chart will be required. At that stage, it would become impossible to predict the next short term movement with any accuracy as it is impossible to tell which structure minor wave B may take.

An acceleration channel is added to this upwards movement. Keep redrawing the channel as price makes new highs: the first trend line from the end of minuette wave (i) to the latest high, then a copy on the end of minuette wave (ii). When minuette wave (iii) is complete, the channel would be an Elliott channel about an impulse.

A target, which is only a $1 zone, is calculated at two degrees and has a reasonable probability.

In the short term, when markets open on Monday, subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory below 1,226.72 if it continues any further.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Another downwards week closes green with a small real body. This is a spinning top candlestick that shifts the trend from down to neutral.

The balance of volume is upwards and shows a decline. Upwards movement may be a counter trend movement if it does not have support from volume.

The bullish signal from On Balance Volume suggests next week may see upwards movement.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The small real body and long upper wick of Friday’s candlestick suggests upwards movement is facing difficulty. Lighter volume does not support the rise in price. This looks like a counter trend bounce and not the start of a new trend.

Look for the bounce to possibly end when price finds resistance and Stochastics is overbought at the same time. Next resistance is about 1,260.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Price is still bullish but Friday looks weak. The small doji shifts the trend from up to possibly neutral. A decline in volume supports this view. It looks like price has found resistance about 22.75.

The gap up for Friday should be assumed to be a measuring gap while it remains open. The measured rule gives a target about 23.35. If the gap is closed, then it would be an exhaustion gap and we should expect a consolidation.

Give reasonable weight to the bullish signal from On Balance Volume. Expect it is most likely that price may overall continue upwards until next resistance about 23.50, just above the target from the measured rule.

This analysis is published @ 12:15 a.m. EST on 13th May, 2017.