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A new high above 1,236.88 indicated more upwards movement towards a target about 1,245. Price continued only slightly higher so far to reach 1,238.88.

Summary: Allow for price to continue higher towards 1,245 while it remains within the channels on the hourly charts. When price breaks below the lower edge of the channels, then expect a pullback or a sideways consolidation for a B wave within a B wave. This will not present a good trading opportunity, so it is a time to step aside and wait patiently.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last historic analysis with monthly charts is here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.


For clarity I have decided at this time it may be best to publish on a daily basis weekly charts I and II. Both charts expect a zigzag down to complete and the difference is in the expected depth.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Combinations are very common structures. Cycle degree waves normally last one to several years, and B waves do tend to be more time consuming waves than all other waves. Given these tendencies the most likely scenario at this point may be that cycle wave b is an incomplete double combination.

The first structure in the double labelled primary wave W fits as a zigzag. This upwards movement will subdivide as either a three (zigzag) or a five (impulse). It does have a three wave look to it.

The double is joined by a deep three in the opposite direction labelled primary wave X, which is a 0.77 depth of primary wave W. X waves within double combinations are normally very deep; this one looks right.

The second structure in the combination may be either a triangle or a flat correction. Both of these structures have A waves which subdivide as threes.

At this stage, the upwards wave from the low in December 2016 does now look best and subdivide best as a completed zigzag. This may be intermediate wave (A) of a flat correction or a triangle. Because a triangle for primary wave Y would look essentially the same as the second weekly chart below, only a flat correction is considered here. The most common two structures in a double combination are a zigzag and a flat.

This wave count follows the most common scenario and has the best fit.

Within the flat correction of primary wave Y, intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 1,140.27. The most common length for intermediate wave (B) is from 1 to 1.38 times the length of intermediate wave (A), giving a common range from 1,123.08 to 1,057.77.

Intermediate wave (B) may subdivide as any corrective structure, but the most common structure for B waves within flats is a zigzag. At this stage, on the hourly chart it looks like a five down is now complete, which would indicate intermediate wave (B) is a zigzag subdividing 5-3-5.

The daily and hourly charts will follow this weekly chart. That does not mean the other two weekly charts aren’t possible, they are, but the number of charts must be kept reasonable on a daily basis.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly II 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

What if cycle wave b is a triangle? This is also entirely possible. Triangles are not as common as double combinations, but they are not uncommon.

Within the triangle, primary waves A, B and C are all single zigzags. One of the five subwaves of a triangle normally subdivides as a more complicated multiple, usually a double zigzag. This may be what is unfolding for primary wave D.

Primary wave D of a regular contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08.

Primary wave D of a regular barrier triangle should end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line is essentially flat. What this means in practice is that primary wave D may end slightly below 1,123.08 and the triangle would remain valid. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.

Thereafter, primary wave E should unfold upwards and would most likely fall a little short of the A-C trend line. If not ending there, it may overshoot the A-C trend line.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This daily chart will suffice for both weekly charts above, although the labelling follows weekly chart I.

Both weekly charts expect a zigzag downwards. Weekly chart I expects a deep zigzag for intermediate wave (B) to a minimum at 1,140.27. Weekly chart II expects a zigzag down for primary wave D to not move below 1,123.08 and most likely fall well short of that point.

The daily chart follows the expectations for weekly chart I, but the structure for weekly chart II would be exactly the same.

Within the flat correction of primary wave Y, intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 1,140.27. The most likely corrective structures to achieve the deep correction required for B waves within flats are single or multiple zigzags. These begin with a five, then a three in the opposite direction. A five down for minor wave A is now complete. Minor wave B has begun.

BarChart data shows a Morning Doji Star reversal pattern at the end of minor wave A. This pattern is not the strongest reversal pattern, but it is fairly reliable after a clear downwards trend. This indicates the downwards trend may end here and be followed by either sideways or upwards movement. Reversal patterns make no comment on how far nor how long the next trend may last.

Minor wave B may be deep but may not move beyond the start of minor wave A above 1,294.96.

B waves exhibit the greatest variety in form and behaviour of all waves. They can be quick sharp zigzags or complicated time consuming combinations. There are more than 23 possible corrective Elliott wave structures that B waves may take, and at their start it is impossible to tell which structure may unfold. B waves do not normally present good trading opportunities; they can be time consuming consolidations with strong whipsaws. However, minor degree B waves may present some opportunity, so it is essential when they unfold that risk is managed diligently. The risk of losses is greater during consolidations than during trending markets.

When minor waves A and B are complete, then a target may be calculated for minor wave C downwards to end the zigzag of intermediate wave (B), using the Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C. That cannot be done yet.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

If minor wave B is a zigzag, then within it minute wave a must subdivide as a five wave structure. So far minute wave a may be unfolding as an impulse. Today, it is possible that it is complete. However, it is possible that minuette wave (v) may extend higher while price remains within the Elliott channel. The bottom line is now while price remains within the channel allow for the possibility of more upwards movement. Only have confidence that minute wave a is over when price breaks below the lower edge of the channel.

If minute wave a does continue higher, then it may end close to the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave A at 1,245.

If minute wave a completes as an impulse, then the following correction for minute wave b may not move beyond its start below 1,214.81. Minute wave b may end about either the 0.382 or 0.618 Fibonacci ratios of minute wave a.

Minute wave b may be a complicated time consuming correction. B waves within B waves exhibit a huge variety in structure and behaviour. Minute wave b, when it arrives, does not present a trading opportunity, so this is a time to step aside and wait patiently for it to end. It is often the trades that you don’t take that make a difference to your account.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

An alternate idea which sees minor wave B as either a flat or a triangle is still viable. The upwards wave labelled minute wave a will subdivide as either an impulse (main wave count) or a double zigzag (this alternate). Both possibilities should be considered.

If minute wave a has subdivided as a double zigzag, then minor wave B may be a flat or a triangle. Both of those structures require the A wave to subdivide as a three. Minor wave B may not be a combination because the maximum number of corrective structures within a combination is three. To label multiples within multiples increases the maximum beyond three, violating the rule.

Within expanded flats and running triangles, minute wave b may move below the start of minute wave a at 1,214.81. There is no lower invalidation point for this wave count.

While minute wave b must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of minute wave a for a flat correction, there is no minimum requirement for minute wave b within a triangle.

The bottom line for this alternate too is that while price remains within the best fit channel (which is drawn almost the same as the main wave count) then allow for the possibility that price may continue higher. Only when price breaks below the lower edge of this channel may any confidence in a trend change for minute wave b be had.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Another downwards week closes green with a small real body. This is a spinning top candlestick that shifts the trend from down to neutral.

The balance of volume is upwards and shows a decline. Upwards movement may be a counter trend movement if it does not have support from volume.

The bullish signal from On Balance Volume suggests this week may see upwards movement.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Resistance about 1,240 continues to be strong. A slight increase in volume today offers a little support for upwards movement, but volume remains relatively light.

At this stage, this upwards movement of the last five sessions still looks weak and so is most likely to be a consolidation or bounce within a larger downwards trend. It is entirely possible that upwards movement may strengthen and the conclusion could change, but for now we must evaluate the data that we have today in front of us.

Volume particularly indicates quite strongly that this bounce lacks support.

The bounce may end when price finds resistance and Stochastics reaches overbought at the same time. If price can break through resistance at 1,240, then there is next strong resistance about 1,260.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Today’s candlestick has a small real body. After the large real body of yesterday these two together complete a Harami pattern. The market is “losing it’s breath” (Nison, page 82). The bulls upwards drive has weakened, a trend change is possible.

Declining volume for the last three sessions also indicates weakness. The closure of the last gap also indicates a consolidation has likely begun.

There is resistance now here about 23.15 and support close by about 22.75.

This analysis is published @ 07:03 p.m. EST.