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Upwards movement has invalidated the first weekly chart. With some adjustment, the triangle idea remains valid.

Summary: In the short term, expect more upwards movement to a new target at 1,326. Stops may be now at 1,281.94 or just below the green channel on the hourly chart.

Always use a stop. Do not invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last historic analysis with monthly charts is here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
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The Magee bear market trend line is added to the weekly charts. This cyan line is drawn from the all time high for Gold on the 6th of September, 2011, to the first major swing high within the following bear market on the 5th of October, 2012. This line should provide strong resistance.

At this stage, a triangle still looks most likely and has the best fit for cycle wave b.

Within a triangle, one sub-wave should be a more complicated multiple, which may be primary wave C. Primary wave C may not move beyond the end of primary wave A above 1,374.91. This invalidation point is black and white.

A common range for the length of triangle sub-waves is from 0.8 to 0.85 the length of the prior wave in the opposite direction. This gives a range of 1,325 to 1,337 for primary wave C.

When primary wave C is complete, then for a contracting triangle primary wave D may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08, or for a barrier triangle primary wave D may end about the same level as 1,123.08 (so that the B-D trend line is essentially flat; this invalidation point is not black and white).

Primary wave C may end when price comes up to touch the Magee trend line.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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The target would see primary wave C end just within the common range of 1,325 to 1,337.

Intermediate wave (Y) is subdividing as a zigzag. So far minor waves A and B look complete and minor wave C looks incomplete. Within minor wave C, the upcoming correction for minute wave iv may not move back into minute wave i price territory below 1,269.45.

Minute wave iii looks like it is extending.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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The hourly chart shows the extension of minute wave iii so far.

Within minute wave iii, so far there is a Fibonacci ratio of equality between minuette waves (i) and (iii), with minuette wave (iii) slightly shorter than minuette wave (i). This limits minuette wave (v) to no longer than equality in length with minuette wave (iii) at 20.35, so that minuette wave (iii) is not the shortest actionary wave and the core Elliott wave rule is met. The target for minute wave iii at 1,306 would see minuette wave (v) slightly shorter than minuette wave (iii), if it began at the last low.

There is strong resistance about 1,305 to 1,310. The target for minute wave iii would see price pause for a consolidation at this resistance zone. This would also see the measured rule target given in the classic analysis section below reached.

Minuette wave (ii) was an expanded flat correction. Minuette wave (iv) may be unfolding as a triangle, which would exhibit alternation.

Minute wave ii lasted a few days. Minute wave iv may last at least two days, or may last up to about five, for the wave count to have the right look at the daily chart level.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly II 2017
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It is also possible that cycle wave b is a double zigzag, but this does not have as good a look nor as good a fit as the triangle idea, so it is less likely.

The purpose of double zigzags is for the second zigzag to deepen the correction when the first does not move price deep enough. Double zigzags normally have a strong slope against the prior trend. To achieve this purpose and to have a strong slope their X waves are normally shallow and also very often brief. Here, primary wave X is neither shallow nor brief. This does not have the right look.

Within primary wave Y, the structure of intermediate wave (A) looks like a three and not a five.

To see intermediate wave (A) over sooner, at the high labelled minor wave 3, would see the low of intermediate wave (B) breach the lower edge of an Elliott channel. And so this would resolve the problem of intermediate wave (A) not looking like a five, but would introduce a new problem of price not fitting correctly within a channel.

The target remains at 1,452.

Within intermediate wave (C), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 1,214.81.



Gold Weekly 2017
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Last week completes an Advance Block candlestick pattern. This is a three candlestick pattern; three green candlesticks with the second and third candlesticks showing signs of weakening. However, this pattern does not come within a mature upwards trend, so the warning is weak and further weakened by the longer lower wicks on the last two candlesticks, which are bullish.

Declining volume along with declining range is bearish.

Strong divergence between price and On Balance Volume is bearish.

There is still room for price to rise further, but the short lived upwards trend at this time looks weak.

The maroon trend line is added to this weekly chart, using the same anchor points as the Elliott wave charts.


Gold Daily 2016
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The pennant pattern suggests an upwards breakout (which happened) to be followed by more upwards movement to the target at 1,310. So far it looks like this target may be met now.

A strong bullish signal is given today from On Balance Volume. There was some support today for upwards movement from volume, but overall volume is still declining slightly as price moves higher.

There is room for price to continue higher; RSI is not yet overbought and there is no divergence between price and Stochastics.

Flat ATR supports the first weekly chart; there is some weakness in this trend.



GDX Daily 2016
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This time Gold has led GDX. The correlation between these two markets is unreliable. This switch in which one leads and which one follows nicely illustrates why analysis of one should not be used to guide analysis of the other.

The pattern looks like a completed pennant. The measured rule target remains the same.

This analysis is published @ 10:33 p.m. EST.