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BTCUSD Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – 23rd December, 2017

by | Dec 23, 2017 | Bitcoin, Public Analysis | 13 comments

Has the Bitcoin bubble burst? I look at price and volume, along with trend lines, to answer this question.

Last analysis stated: “Instead of trying to figure out where this bubble may go, I’ll focus on figuring out when it may have popped. A strong bearish candlestick pattern at the weekly chart level and a trend channel or trend line breach will be looked for.”

There is a completed weekly candlestick at the end of today’s session, and it is a strong bearish engulfing candlestick pattern.

But the channel is not yet breached.

Volume supports the idea of a high in place, but the bottom line is that there is substantial risk to any short position while price remains within the channel.

Look now for a bounce to not make a new all time high, which should exhibit weakness in volume. Then look for the channel breach.

Manage risk diligently.

ELLIOTT WAVE CHARTS

2 WEEKLY

Bitcoin 2 weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

WEEKLY

Bitcoin weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

DAILY

Bitcoin daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

VOLUME ANALYSIS

Bitcoin volume 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of Bitcoinity.org.

A huge drop in volume suggests exhaustion.

Published @ 02:22 a.m. EST.

13 Comments

  1. Dreamer on January 6, 2018 at 3:14 am

    The 1st idea, that a triangle is complete with an upward breakout looks pretty good at this point. If correct, new highs will be forthcoming.

    If option 2 or 3 is in play, a big move down should start very soon

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/4t51chB8/

  2. Dreamer on December 31, 2017 at 6:27 pm

    Updated: 3 corrective patterns to watch:

    Blue = triangle
    Black = A-B-C
    Pink/Orange = Head & Shoulders

    Which one wins?

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/bZl6vxtX/

  3. Dreamer on December 30, 2017 at 7:29 pm

    If this is a standard A-B-C correction, 3 possible targets. This next week will be interesting. Could be painful for longs

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/IikLPh37/

  4. John Koumides on December 27, 2017 at 8:51 pm

    How would one short bitcoin?

    • Lara on December 28, 2017 at 3:11 pm

      With a trading account that allows you to do so. BitStamp is one that Cesar found.

    • Lara on December 24, 2017 at 1:29 pm

      Sure looks likely doesn’t it!

  6. Steve Shingler on December 23, 2017 at 10:16 am

    If you draw a long held channel this way (see chart) there has been a breakout and a back-test. Does this not look bullish? Thanks.

    • Lara on December 26, 2017 at 12:24 pm

      Yes, that does look bullish

    • Papudi Dadhich on January 1, 2018 at 8:30 am

      If one looks at the long term chart of a bubble “Dow to Gold ratio” caution is the word.
      Once these long channels are broken the top is closer than one expect.

      • Papudi Dadhich on January 1, 2018 at 8:37 am

        If one looks at the last peak and bottom they were separated by 20 year cycle. Next 20 year bottom from 2000 top is due in 2020. Which is at ratio of “1”.

      • Dreamer on January 2, 2018 at 1:11 am

        Hey Papudi,

        Nice chart. Looks like it ended in Feb 2017. I made an attempt to count the move from the 2011 to current. I may be wrong, but it looks like there may be one more high this year before the big move down. If correct, it suggests that the DJI shows relative strength vs. gold for a few more months. Thoughts?

        https://www.tradingview.com/x/KUmIVtWO/

        • Papudi Dadhich on January 2, 2018 at 5:31 am

          Yes it may touch the average 20 and then down sharply. thanks.