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Downwards movement remains above the invalidation point on the hourly chart and within the allowable range for the Elliott wave count.

Summary: It still is reasonably likely that a low is in place for Gold for the short to mid term. A bounce up now to about 1,307 is expected to last a few weeks, possibly as long as 21 weeks. It is expected to have a consolidation within it.

However, a bearish signal today from On Balance Volume making a new low is a warning that the alternate hourly wave count could be correct, that one more low to about 1,211 could occur in the next one to two days.

Always trade with stops to protect your account. Risk only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Last historic analysis with monthly charts and several weekly alternates is here, video is here.

Last remaining four weekly wave counts were updated here, and video here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

There are four remaining weekly wave counts at this time for cycle wave b: a triangle, flat, combination or double zigzag. At this stage, all four expect a bounce over the next few weeks, and the triangle has the best look.

While the direction does not diverge for these four weekly wave counts, only one weekly wave count shall be published on a daily basis, so that the analysis is manageable for me to publish and for members to digest. Note: This does not mean that the remaining three counts may not be correct.

The triangle so far has the best fit and look.

Cycle wave b may be an incomplete triangle. The triangle may be a contracting or barrier triangle, with a contracting triangle looking much more likely because the A-C trend line does not have a strong slope. A contracting triangle could see the B-D trend line have a stronger slope, so that the triangle trend lines converge at a reasonable rate. A barrier triangle would have a B-D trend line that would be essentially flat, and the triangle trend lines would barely converge.

Within a contracting triangle, primary wave D may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08. Within a barrier triangle, primary wave D may end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line is essentially flat. Only a new low reasonably below 1,123.08 would invalidate the triangle.

Within both a contracting and barrier triangle, primary wave E may not move beyond the end of primary wave C above 1,365.68.

Four of the five sub-waves of a triangle must be zigzags, with only one sub-wave allowed to be a multiple zigzag. Primary wave C is the most common sub-wave to subdivide as a multiple, and this is how primary wave C for this example fits best.

Primary wave D must be a single structure, most likely a zigzag. It is possible that primary wave D could be over.

One triangle sub-wave tends to be close to 0.618 the length of its predecessor; if primary wave D is over at last week’s low, it is just 3.64 below this point.

There are no problems in terms of subdivisions or rare structures for this wave count. It has an excellent fit and so far a typical look.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2018
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It is possible that primary wave D is over. The structure may be seen complete and technical analysis indicates a low may now be in place.

It is also possible that minor wave 5 could continue lower this week. This idea would be invalidated at the hourly chart level with a new high above 1,247.37, so a new high above this price point would add confidence that a low is in place.

At this stage, the best target calculation for primary wave E would be 0.618 the length of primary wave D. This yields a target that is within a very strong area of resistance.

When intermediate waves (A) and (B) within primary wave E may be complete, then the ratio between intermediate waves (A) and (C) may be used to add to the target calculation at a second degree. At that stage, it may change or widen to a zone.

Primary wave E would be most likely to fall reasonably short of the A-C trend line.

In the first instance, primary wave E may be expected to last about a Fibonacci 21 weeks. It is also possible that it may not last that long because E waves of a triangle can be relatively quick.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2018
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There is less support today for this main hourly wave count, so it has reduced in probability. The alternate below must be considered alongside this main count.

It is possible to see minor wave 5 as a complete impulse, ending with an overshoot of the lower edge of the blue Elliott channel.

A new high above 1,247.37 would invalidate the alternate hourly wave count and provide strong confidence in this wave count. Prior to this, a new high above 1,234.67 would provide a little confidence in this main wave count, as at that stage the alternate hourly wave count below would be invalidated.

Within the new upwards trend, there may now be a five up complete. Minor wave 1 has a three wave look to it though because the corrections within it of minute waves ii and iv are disproportionate. This is only a small cause of concern though because Gold fairly often exhibits disproportionate fourth and second wave corrections, with the fourth waves fairly often more brief.

If a five up is complete, then a three down for minor wave 2 may now be an incomplete zigzag. It may find support about the lower edge of the blue Elliott channel. Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 1,212.11.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

There is more than one way to see downwards movement of minor wave 5. This alternate hourly chart allows for more downwards movement to complete the impulse.

Within minor wave 5, minute waves i, ii, iii and now iv may be complete. Minute wave v downwards may now have begun.

Minute wave iv subdivides as a single zigzag, and this upwards movement does look better as a three than a five. At the hourly chart level, this alternate wave count still has a better fit than the main wave count for most recent movement.

However, there is no alternation in structure now for minute waves ii and iv. Both are single zigzags. Alternation is a guideline, not a rule, but the probability of the wave count must be considered reduced when there is no alternation.

Within minute wave v, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 1,234.67. At this stage, minuette wave (i) fits as a complete five wave impulse and minuette wave (ii) may be moving higher as a zigzag.

One final new low may complete the whole structure for primary wave D.

This alternate wave count has some support today from a new low for On Balance Volume.



Gold Weekly 2018
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The reasonably long lower wick on the last weekly candlestick is given weight in this analysis. While this is fairly bearish, sometimes more than one long wick develops at price extremes. This week could complete with another long lower wick and a slight new low.


Gold Daily 2018
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There is now a small cluster of three long lower daily candlestick wicks. In conjunction with a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern, single bullish divergence between price and RSI while RSI is oversold, and now double bullish divergence between price and Stochastics while Stochastics is oversold, it looks like a low may now be in place for the short to mid term at least.

ADX does indicate this downwards trend is very extreme, so looking at other indicators for a cluster of signals is the approach I will take.

While this chart overall still looks like a low may be in place, a new low today for On Balance Volume puts some doubt on that view.

The short term volume profile remains bullish.


GDX Weekly 2018
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GDX has been range bounce since January 2017. This is a very long sideways consolidation. The longer it continues, the more sustained the eventual breakout will be. Volume suggests the breakout may more likely be downwards.

Support about 20.80 has been tested about eight times and so far has held. The more often a support area is tested and holds, the more technical significance it has.

In the first instance, expect this area to continue to provide support. Only a strong downwards day, closing below support and preferably with some increase in volume, would constitute a downwards breakout from the consolidation.

Resistance is about 25.50. Only a strong upwards day, closing above resistance and with support from volume, would constitute an upwards breakout.

There is again some support this week for downwards movement from volume.


GDX Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Price bounces up off support about 21.30.

GDX remains very bearish. There is very strong support below about 20.80, but if price can close below that, then GDX would be full bore bearish and a new trend downwards to last over a year may be in the very early stages. Prior to that though look for support and a bounce about 20.80 if price can get down that low.

Published @ 09:18 p.m. EST.