A pullback was expected to end about 1,235. Downwards movement for Friday reached 1,232.98 and then quickly reversed.
Summary: The upwards trend may now resume. The mid-term target is 1,295.
The final target for this bounce to end is about 1,305 – 1,310.
New updates to this analysis are in bold.
Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.
Last historic analysis with monthly charts is here.
There are four remaining weekly wave counts at this time for cycle wave b: a triangle, a flat, a combination, and a double zigzag.
At this time, the Triangle wave count may again be slightly more likely.
MAIN ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART – TRIANGLE
Cycle wave b may be an incomplete regular contracting triangle. Primary wave E may not move beyond the end of primary wave C above 1,365.68.
Within primary wave E, intermediate waves (A) and (B) may be complete. Intermediate wave (C) must subdivide as a five wave structure. Within intermediate wave (C), minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 1,181.06.
Four of the five sub-waves of a triangle must be zigzags, with only one sub-wave allowed to be a multiple zigzag. Wave C is the most common sub-wave to subdivide as a multiple, and this is how primary wave C for this example fits best. Primary wave E would most likely be a single zigzag. It is also possible that it may subdivide as a triangle to create a rare nine wave triangle.
There are no problems in terms of subdivisions or rare structures for this wave count. It has an excellent fit and so far a typical look.
When primary wave E is a complete three wave structure, then this wave count would expect a cycle degree trend change. Cycle wave c would most likely make new lows below the end of cycle wave a at 1,046.27 to avoid a truncation.
DAILY CHART – TRIANGLE
Primary wave E should now be underway for this wave count.
Primary wave E should subdivide as a zigzag. Intermediate waves (A) and (B) may now be complete. Intermediate wave (C) may be underway.
Minor wave 1 fits perfectly as a five wave impulse. Minor wave 2 should be complete as a deep zigzag. Minor wave 3 may now exhibit an increase in upwards momentum, and it should have support from volume. The target for minor wave 3 expects it to exhibit a common Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1.
Minor wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse. Within minor wave 3, minute waves i and ii may now be complete. Within minute wave iii, minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) below 1,211.24.
This wave count now expects to see a third wave at three degrees to begin next week. An increase in upwards momentum is expected.
A target for primary wave E is the strong zone of resistance about 1,305 to 1,310. Primary wave E is most likely to subdivide as a zigzag (although it may also subdivide as a triangle to create a rare nine wave triangle). It may last a total Fibonacci 21 or 34 weeks. So far it has lasted 13 weeks. Primary wave E may not move beyond the end of primary wave C above 1,365.68.
HOURLY CHART – TRIANGLE
Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) below 1,211.24.
Minuette wave (ii) may be a complete zigzag with a running barrier triangle for subminuette wave b within it.
Minuette wave (i) lasted a Fibonacci 8 days. Minuette wave (ii) may have completed in 4 days. This proportion is acceptable.
Minuette wave (iii) may only subdivide as an impulse. Within minuette wave (iii), subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i below 1,232.98.
WEEKLY CHART – DOUBLE ZIGZAG
It is possible that cycle wave b may be a double zigzag or a double combination.
The first zigzag in the double is labelled primary wave W. This has a good fit.
The double may be joined by a corrective structure in the opposite direction, a triangle labelled primary wave X. The triangle would be about three quarters complete.
Within the triangle of primary wave X, intermediate wave (C) should be complete. Within intermediate wave (D), minor waves A and B may be complete. Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure. Within minor wave C, minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 1,181.06.
Intermediate wave (D) would most likely subdivide as a single zigzag.
This wave count may now expect choppy overlapping movement in an ever decreasing range for several more months.
Primary wave Y would most likely be a zigzag because primary wave X would be shallow; double zigzags normally have relatively shallow X waves.
Primary wave Y may also be a flat correction if cycle wave b is a double combination, but combinations normally have deep X waves. This would be less likely.
This wave count has good proportions and no problems in terms of subdivisions.
WEEKLY CHART – COMBINATION
If cycle wave b is a combination, then the first structure in a double may be a complete zigzag labelled primary wave W.
The double may be joined by a three in the opposite direction, a zigzag labelled primary wave X.
The second structure in the double may be a flat correction labelled primary wave Y. My research on Gold so far has found that the most common two structures in a double combination are one zigzag and one flat correction. I have found only one instance where a triangle unfolded for wave Y. The most likely structure for wave Y would be a flat correction by a very wide margin, so that is what this wave count shall expect.
Within a flat correction for primary wave Y, the current downwards wave of intermediate wave (B) may be a double zigzag. Intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 1,147.34. Intermediate wave (B) may move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A) as in an expanded flat.
No upper invalidation point is given on this chart. Minor wave X may still continue higher. There is no Elliott wave rule stating a minimum nor maximum length for X waves within multiples.
Because the minimum requirement for intermediate wave (B) is not yet met, this wave count requires that intermediate wave (B) continues lower. This is the most immediately bearish of all four weekly wave counts.
When intermediate wave (B) is complete, then intermediate wave (C) would be expected to make at least a slight new high above the end of intermediate wave (A) at 1,365.68 to avoid a truncation. Primary wave Y would be most likely to end about the same level as primary wave W at 1,374.91, so that the whole structure takes up time and moves price sideways, as that is the purpose of double combinations.
While double combinations are very common, triples are extremely rare. I have found no examples of triple combinations for Gold at daily chart time frames or higher back to 1976. When the second structure in a double is complete, then it is extremely likely (almost certain) that the whole correction is over.
DAILY CHART – COMBINATION
Minor wave X may be a complete double zigzag.
The maximum number of corrective structures within a multiple is three. This number refers to W, Y and Z. Each of W, Y and Z may only be simple corrective structures; they may not be multiples. However, the total of three does not include X waves, so X waves may be any corrective structure including multiples and the Elliott wave rule is not violated.
While X waves may be multiples, they very rarely are. The probability of this wave count is reduced.
HOURLY CHART – COMBINATION
This wave count now expects a downwards trend to 1,147.34 minimum.
Within the new trend of minor wave Y, minute wave a must subdivide as a five wave structure (most likely an impulse).
Within minute wave a, minuette wave (i) may be an incomplete impulse.
Within minuette wave (i), subminuette waves i through to iv may be complete. Subminuette wave iv, however, may also continue a little sideways. It may not move into subminuette wave i price territory above 1,241.71.
A target is calculated for subminuette wave v to complete minuette wave (i) using the most common Fibonacci ratio for a fifth wave.
A channel is drawn about this downwards movement using Elliott’s first technique. When this channel is breached by upwards movement (not sideways), that may be taken as indication that the downwards wave labelled minuette wave (i) should be complete and minuette wave (ii) should then be underway.
WEEKLY CHART – FLAT
It is possible that cycle wave b may be a flat correction. Within a flat correction, primary wave B must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of primary wave A at 1,079.13 or below. Primary wave B may make a new low below the start of primary wave A at 1,046.27 as in an expanded flat correction.
Only a new low reasonably below 1,123.08 would provide reasonable confidence in this wave count.
Intermediate wave (C) must subdivide as a five wave structure; it may be unfolding as an impulse. Within intermediate wave (C), minor waves 1 through to 3 may be complete. Today minor wave 4 is relabelled as possibly incomplete as a double zigzag.
Minor wave 2 lasted 9 weeks. If minor wave 4 is now complete, then it has lasted 17 weeks. Minor wave 4 would be longer in duration than minor wave 2 by a reasonable margin. For Gold this is unusual, so the probability of this wave count is further reduced.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On Balance Volume has made a lower low than its prior low at the end of November 2015. This divergence is extremely bearish but does not rule out a consolidation unfolding here; the divergence does strongly support the Triangle wave count, which expects a consolidation or bounce up to test resistance now and then a continuation of a major bear market. It could also support the flat wave count that allows for a new low below 1,046.27 in coming months.
This week completed an upwards week with a higher high and a higher low, but the candlestick is red and the balance of volume is downwards. Downwards movement within this week does not have support from volume.
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Weight is given to the bullish long lower wick on Friday’s candlestick. It looks like Monday may print a green daily candlestick.
The support line for On Balance Volume is redrawn.
Support from volume for Friday is bearish, but this can occur at the end of a movement for commodity markets.
Overall, this chart shows an upwards trend for Gold since the low on 16th of August. A series of higher highs and higher lows may be expected to continue, until a swing low is exceeded.
GDX WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
GDX had a large consolidation that lasted from January 2017 to August 2018. A downwards breakout below support at 20.80 in early August 2018 is highly significant. The breakout had support from volume, which adds confidence.
The breakaway gap has its low at 20.51. This gap is closed, but the target for the resulting movement following the long consolidation remains. The current bounce may still find strong resistance about 20.80.
The target is at 16.02.
GDX DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Strong resistance still remains above about 20.50 and 20.80. It again looks like a high may be in place for GDX.
Published @ 09:15 p.m. EST.
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Hi Lara ,,,, Thank you very much for your interest in communicating with us , and wish you a happy vacation and Happy New Year.
Notice to all Elliott Wave Gold daily members:
I’ve just sent an email but I’ll leave this here as there are always a few people who don’t get my emails.
I’ve decided to not take a full holiday this year. I don’t feel okay leaving you all without analysis for two weeks, especially as I’m hoping Gold may complete a cycle degree B wave during that time.
I’ll check markets each day after the New York session closes and update Gold with a chart in the comments section.
If the main wave count changes or I otherwise deem it necessary, I’ll update any one or more of Gold, US Oil or Silver with a new post.
I’ll do your usual end of week video this weekend, and next video will be an update on Sunday 6th January 2019 in preparation for that new week.
I will have a reduced workload and so can have some rest. This will allow me a partial holiday which is good enough for me.
Thank you all.
Updated hourly chart for the triangle wave count:
Expect a further increase in momentum this week to the upside. The end of any one of the three degrees of third waves unfolding could end with a blow off top.
Keep redrawing the channel as price makes new highs to contain all this wave up. use the lower edge for support.