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A little sideways movement was expected for the short term when markets opened for the new week. This is mostly what has happened. Monday’s session completes a long legged doji with a slightly higher high.

Summary: A short and final upwards wave may unfold to 1,313 – 1,314.

If price gets up to this target and keeps on rising, or if it gets there and the Elliott wave structure is again incomplete, then the next target is at 1,338.

Thereafter, a huge trend change is expected: a new wave down to last years would be expected to make new lows below 1,046.27. This trend change may now come within the next 24 hours.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Last historic analysis with monthly charts is here.

Only two remaining wave counts have a reasonable probability and are published below: a triangle (the preferred wave count) and a double zigzag.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
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Cycle wave b may be an almost complete regular contracting triangle. Primary wave E may not move beyond the end of primary wave C above 1,365.68.

Within primary wave E, intermediate waves (A) and (B) may be complete. Intermediate wave (C) must subdivide as a five wave structure. Within intermediate wave (C), minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 1,241.88.

Four of the five sub-waves of a triangle must be zigzags, with only one sub-wave allowed to be a multiple zigzag. Wave C is the most common sub-wave to subdivide as a multiple, and this is how primary wave C for this example fits best. Primary wave E looks like it is unfolding as a single zigzag.

There are no problems in terms of subdivisions or rare structures for this wave count. It has an excellent fit and so far a typical look.

When primary wave E is a complete three wave structure, then this wave count would expect a cycle degree trend change. Cycle wave c would most likely make new lows below the end of cycle wave a at 1,046.27 to avoid a truncation.

It is possible now that primary wave E may end this week, maybe even within the next 24 hours. Some reasonable weakness should be expected at its end. Triangles often end with declining ATR, weak momentum and weak volume.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2018
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Primary wave E may now be almost complete for this wave count.

Primary wave E should subdivide as a zigzag. Intermediate waves (A) and (B) may now be complete. Intermediate wave (C) may now be almost complete.

Minor wave 2 is a deep 0.75 zigzag. Minor wave 4 may now be a complete a zigzag. Alternation is a guideline, not a rule, and is not always seen. Zigzags are the most common corrective structure. There is still alternation in depth: minor wave 2 was deep and minor wave 4 was very shallow.

Minor wave 3 exhibits the most common Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1.

It is now possible to see minor wave 5 almost complete at the daily and hourly chart level. As soon as minute wave v moves above the end of minute wave iii at 1,304.25, then a truncation would be avoided. At that stage, look out for a possible end to this upwards wave and a sharp reversal. The invalidation point is removed for this reason.

Two targets now remain for minor wave 5 to end. If price reaches the next target and the structure is incomplete or price just keeps on rising through it, then the third target may be used.

All targets would expect primary wave E to fall short of the maroon A-C trend line. This is the most common look for E waves of Elliott wave triangles.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2018
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Minor wave 5 must subdivide as a five wave motive structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. Impulses are much more common structures, and that is how minor wave 5 is unfolding.

Within minor wave 5, minute wave i may be a complete leading contracting diagonal.

Minute wave ii subdivides as a zigzag. Zigzags are the most common corrective structure. Second wave corrections following first wave leading diagonals are most commonly very deep. This wave count follows a common pattern.

Minute wave iii may now be a complete impulse. Minute wave iii exhibits a common Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i.

Minute wave iv may be a complete zigzag, or it may continue further sideways as a flat, combination or triangle. All of those options are shallow sideways corrections. A continuation of minute wave iv may see price find support at the lower edge of the pink Elliott channel. A continuation of minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory below 1,286.22.

The target is now widened to a small $1 zone calculated at two degrees.

When the narrow pink Elliott channel is breached by downwards movement, that shall be the earliest indication that cycle wave b may be over.

A breach of the wider blue channel on the daily chart would be the next indication that cycle wave b may be over. Some reasonable confidence may be had at that stage that cycle wave c has begun, and a target may then be calculated for it.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
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It is possible that cycle wave b may be a double zigzag or a double combination.

The first zigzag in the double is labelled primary wave W. This has a good fit.

The double may be joined by a corrective structure in the opposite direction, a triangle labelled primary wave X. The triangle would be about three quarters complete.

Within the triangle of primary wave X, intermediate wave (C) should be complete. Within intermediate wave (D), minor waves A and B may be complete. Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure. Within minor wave C, minute wave iv should now be over. Within minute wave v, no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 1,276.84.

Intermediate wave (D) would most likely subdivide as a single zigzag. Intermediate wave (D) should end at the upper (B)-(D) trend line for this wave count, so that the triangle adheres neatly to this trend line. That price point is about 1,354. This wave count now requires upwards movement to continue. It would not be acceptable for the upper (B)-(D) trend line to have breaches or substantial overshoots. Elliott wave triangles almost always adhere very neatly to their trend lines.

This wave count may now expect choppy overlapping movement in an ever decreasing range for a few more months.

Primary wave Y would most likely be a zigzag because primary wave X would be shallow; double zigzags normally have relatively shallow X waves.

Primary wave Y may also be a flat correction if cycle wave b is a double combination, but combinations normally have deep X waves. This would be less likely.

This wave count has good proportions and no problems in terms of subdivisions.



Gold Weekly 2018
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ADX indicates a potential trend change to upwards, but as yet it does not indicate a new trend at this time frame.


Gold Daily 2018
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Friday completes a strong bullish candlestick. The close above the upper flag trend line with support from volume is a classic upwards breakout.

Using the flag pole length, a target at 1,359 is calculated. This target looks rather optimistic.

Monday’s upwards session looks a little weak. A very slight new high is seen with Stockcharts data, but the real body is very small. The long lower wick is bullish, but volume did not support upwards movement.


GDX Weekly 2018
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A close back above 20.80 switches the short-term outlook from bearish to neutral or bullish. The short-term daily chart may be more indicative here.


GDX Daily 2018
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The flag pattern remains valid for GDX. It lasted 14 sessions and now looks complete with an upwards breakout on Friday.

Flags are continuation patterns. The target would be about 22.60.

This view has support from a bullish signal from On Balance Volume.

Published @ 09:55 p.m. EST.

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