Downwards movement fits the alternate wave count better, but is not enough for final clarity.
Upwards movement was expected. Both Elliott wave counts remain valid. The depth of this current downwards correction may provide some clarity.
Another green candlestick was expected, but we are not seeing an increase in upwards momentum. I have a new alternate hourly Elliott wave count for you to consider today.
Price continued lower, but this is not what was expected from last Elliott wave analysis. I had expected to see a second wave correction.
Summary: The target remains at 74.53. This target may be 13 weeks away.
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The structure of minor wave 1 looks to be most likely incomplete.
Currently, I expect a small fourth wave correction may have just completed as a double combination.
At 85.88 minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (i).
Thereafter, minute wave iv should move price higher and sideways for a few days, and be followed by more downwards movement.
Overall I expect it is now most likely that minor wave 1 will continue lower for another couple of weeks or so.
Within minute wave iii minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory above 99.01.
I have drawn a channel about minute wave iii using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the lows of minuette waves (i) to (iii), then place a parallel copy on the high of minuette wave (ii). If this channel is breached by upwards movement then I would expect minute wave iv is underway. However, it is also possible that upwards movement may not breach this channel.
The target for intermediate wave (3) remains at 74.53 where it would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). Intermediate wave (1) lasted 13 weeks and intermediate wave (2) lasted 28 weeks. I would expect intermediate wave (3) may last a Fibonacci 21 weeks. So far it is in its 8th week and may continue for another 13 weeks.
Alternate Wave Count.
It is possible that minor wave 1 is over with an extended fifth wave.
If minor wave 2 has begun then it is unfolding as a shallow flat correction, with minute wave a within it as a complete double combination. This alternate would expect a very shallow second wave correction. This is entirely possible, but it is unusual. This reduces the probability of this wave count to an alternate.
Within minor wave 2 minute wave a is complete. Minute wave b must reach a minimum 90% the length of minute wave a so must move to 92.81 or below. Thereafter, minute wave c should move to a new high above the end of minute wave a at 94.33 to avoid a truncation.
This alternate wave count would see minor wave 2 as very brief, and unlikely to breach the channel containing minor wave 1. This is unlikely and further reduces the probability of this alternate wave count.
Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 at 107.67.
I have an increased confidence in the main Elliott wave count today with a breach of the orange channel on the hourly chart.
The (B)-(D) trend line of the primary wave 4 triangle continues to provide strong support. The main Elliott wave count still has a higher probability.
Upwards movement was expected for both the main and alternate Elliott wave counts of last analysis. I am adjusting my analysis of most recent movement, and this makes a difference to the confirmation/invalidation point and expectation of when we may have clarity.
I have two Elliott wave counts for you today. I would judge the main wave count to have a 60% probability, and the alternate to have a 40% probability. We should have some clarity within two or three days, at the most.
A slight breach of the invalidation point on the hourly chart changes the picture considerably. I have considered multiple possibilities and present the Elliott wave count with the best fit and best overall look, which agrees with current momentum.
Price has moved slightly lower, remaining above the invalidation point which is very close by. I have just the one hourly Elliott wave count for you today. The alternate Elliott wave counts still have a lower probability.
Summary: The short/mid term target for upwards movement is 1,340. The target for upwards movement to end is still 1,346 and this may be about eight days away. On the way up movement will be very choppy and overlapping.
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Main Wave Count.
Primary wave 4 is an incomplete regular contracting triangle. Primary wave 2 was a deep 68% running flat correction. Primary wave 4 is showing alternation in depth and some alternation in structure.
Within the triangle of primary wave 4 intermediate wave (E) is unfolding as a zigzag: minor wave A is a five wave impulse and minor wave B downwards is a zigzag. Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure.
At 1,346 minor wave C would move slightly above the end of minor wave A at 1,345.22 and avoid a truncation, and intermediate wave (E) would fall short of the (A)-(C) trend line.
There are three nice examples of triangles on this daily chart: within intermediate wave (D), within minor wave A of intermediate wave (E), and within minor wave B of intermediate wave (E). In all three examples the final subwave of the triangle ends comfortably short of the A-C trend line. This is the most common place for the final wave of a triangle to end and so that is what I will expect is most likely to happen for this primary degree triangle of primary wave 4.
Within minor wave C no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 1,280.35.
Intermediate wave (E) may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (C) above 1,392.30.
Within minute wave iii the size of the current correction indicates this is not subminuette wave ii, but most likely to be minuette wave (b) mostly because it is showing up clearly on the daily chart.
Subminuette wave (b) has continued further sideways and lower as a double zigzag, with the second zigzag in the double deepening the correction. If subminuette wave (b) continues any further it may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave (a) below 1,292.54.
At 1,340 minuette wave (c) would reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (a). This is the Fibonacci ratio I am using because were it to reach only 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a) minute wave iii would not move beyond the end of minute wave i, and it must do to adhere to a core Elliott wave rule.
If minute wave iii ends about 1,340 then the ending diagonal would most likely be expanding.
Minute wave iii must subdivide as a zigzag because this is a third wave within an ending diagonal. Within an ending diagonal all the subwaves must subdivide only as single zigzag structures.
First Alternate Daily Wave Count.
This is a new alternate idea which has some validity, and importantly could see the end of primary wave 4 within one to two days. If this is correct then when the final subwave is over the next movement could be a very violent swift downwards movement.
It is possible that primary wave 4 is an almost complete nine wave triangle. Triangles may be either five waves (most common) or nine waves (fairly uncommon). Because nine wave triangles are reasonably rare this idea is reduced in probability to an alternate. I would judge this alternate idea to have a better probability than the second alternate below, possibly about a 15% probability.
The only other nine wave triangle I have seen of which I am confident is shown on this daily chart. Within intermediate wave (D) minor wave B is a clear nine wave triangle. Within that triangle one of the subwaves can only be seen as a double zigzag, so within a nine wave triangle one of the subwaves may take a more complicated W-X-Y form. This may be what we are seeing here at a larger degree.
This alternate idea resolves the problem of proportion within intermediate wave (E): now the triangle is minor wave B and minor wave A is a five wave impulse. Minor waves A and B are nicely in proportion.
This triangle does look slightly odd though in that intermediate waves (F), (G) and (H) all fall comfortably short of the triangle trend lines. This is quite different to analogous waves within the nine wave triangle of minor wave B of intermediate wave (D) where minute waves f, g and h were much closer to the triangle trend lines.
I would expect intermediate wave (I) to end above 1,310.27 but below 1,322.83. Minor wave C within the final zigzag of intermediate wave (I) should move beyond the end of minor wave A at 1,310.27 to avoid a truncation, but it may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (G) at 1,322.83. At 1,311.37 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A.
If this idea is correct then when the final ninth wave is complete then the next movement would be the first movement out of a huge triangle. This movement should be expected to be surprisingly swift and violent.
Once the triangle could be considered complete then subsequent movement below 1,280.35 would provide confirmation of this alternate. At that stage the main wave count would be invalidated. If this price point is passed with swift downwards movement this would be my preferred wave count.
If this wave count is confirmed then I would expect primary wave 5 to be relatively short and brief. When triangles are excessively time consuming then the movement following the triangle is reduced in length.
Second Alternate Daily Wave Count
It is possible (but unlikely) that primary wave 4 is over at the high of 1,345.22.
If primary wave 4 is over then primary wave 5 downwards would reach equality in length with primary wave 1 at 956.97. Primary wave 1 was a remarkably brief 3 weeks duration. I would expect primary wave 5 to last some months, and is already longer than one month.
The only structure which fits for minor wave 1 is a leading contracting diagonal. While leading diagonals are not rare, they are not very common either. This slightly reduces the probability of this wave count.
Within diagonals the second and fourth waves are commonly between 0.66 to 0.81 the prior wave. Here minute wave ii is 0.61 the length of minute wave i, just a little shorter than the common length, slightly reducing the probability of this wave count. Minute wave iv is 0.66 the length of minute wave iii, just within the common length.
Leading diagonals in first wave positions are normally followed by very deep second wave corrections. Minor wave 2 is deep at 65% the length of minor wave 1, but this is not “very” deep. This again very slightly reduces the probability of this wave count.
The biggest problem I have with this wave count and the reason for it being an alternate is the leading diagonal following the end of the triangle for primary wave 4. When triangles end the first piece of movement out of the triangle is almost always very strong and swift. Diagonals are not strong and swift movements. To see a first wave out of a triangle subdividing as a diagonal is highly unusual and does not at all fit with typical behaviour. This substantially reduces the probability of this alternate wave count. I would judge it to have less than a 10% probability.
If this wave count is correct then current movement for the last 24 hours should be the start of a third wave, within a third wave, within a third wave. Current movement should be increasing substantially in downwards momentum for this wave count. The fact that it is not further reduces the probability of this alternate today.
Within minor wave 3 no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 1,322.83.
Only if this wave count is confirmed with a new low below 1,280.35 next week would I take it seriously. After that a clear breach of the lower (B)-(D) trend line of the primary wave 4 triangle would provide full and final confirmation of this alternate. A full daily candlestick below that trend line would provide me with 100% confidence in this wave count.
This analysis is published about 08:15 p.m. EST.
Last Elliott wave analysis for Silver expected to see some upwards movement for a second wave correction, but this is not what happened. The first wave moved lower.
I expect now that we shall see downwards movement towards 18.802 to complete a third wave. Notice that since 1st of August Gold has trended sideways (and slightly higher) while Silver has clearly trended downwards. They quite simply do not always have to move together.
I expect that while Gold finishes an ending diagonal (very choppy, generally trending upwards) Silver will complete this downwards impulse and its fourth wave corrections will correspond to Golds upwards waves.
Click on charts to enlarge.
Main Wave Count.
Downwards movement subdivides so far as an incomplete double zigzag. This cannot be an impulse if the movement which I have labeled primary wave X is correct as a triangle because a triangle may not be the sole structure in a second wave position.
The first zigzag in the double is labeled primary wave W. The double is joined by a “three”, a triangle, in the opposite direction labeled primary wave X.
The second zigzag for primary wave Y is moving price lower to deepen the correction, and so this structure has a typical double zigzag look in that it has a clear slope against the main trend.
Within primary wave Y the triangle for intermediate wave (B) is now a complete barrier triangle. Movements following triangles, and particularly barrier triangles, have a tendency to be relatively short and brief. The higher target has a higher probability for this reason.
Within primary wave Y at 11.52 intermediate wave (C) would reach 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 5.309 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).
Within primary wave Y intermediate wave (A) lasted 30 weeks, and intermediate wave (B) lasted exactly a Fibonacci 54 weeks. I would expect intermediate wave (C) to end in a total 21 or 34 weeks.
The triangle for intermediate wave (B) is very likely to be complete.
Intermediate wave (C) downwards should subdivide as a five wave structure, either an impulse (most likely) or an ending diagonal (less likely). At this stage it is far too early to tell which structure may unfold.
Minor wave 1 is incomplete, and it is unfolding as a simple impulse. Within it the middle of a third wave has passed. There are no Fibonacci ratios between minuette waves (iii) and (i), nor any Fibonacci ratios within the subdivisions of minuette wave (iii). This is slightly unusual for Silver.
At 18.802 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i.
Within minute wave iii minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory above 20.735.
Minuette wave (iv) should last about three to seven days in total. It may find resistance at the upper edge of the green channel. Draw the channel using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the lows of minuette waves (i) to (iii), then place a parallel copy on the high of minuette wave (ii).
Minuette wave (iii) is most likely over, and minuette wave (iv) has most likely begun.
Minuette wave (iv) may end when price comes very close to, or touches the upper edge of the Elliott channel copied over here from the daily chart.
I would expect minuette wave (iv) to end below the end of the fourth wave of one lesser degree.
Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory above 20.735.
Alternate Wave Count.
This alternate wave count sees intermediate wave (B) as an incomplete zigzag and not as a complete triangle.
This alternate would expect intermediate wave (B) to break through resistance at the aqua blue trend line. However, this is unlikely and reduces the probability of this wave count to an alternate.
Intermediate wave (B) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A) above 34.515.
Minute wave ii may be continuing lower; the structure must be incomplete.
The channel about minute wave ii is drawn using Elliott’s technique for a correction: the first trend line is drawn from the start of minuette wave (a) to the end of minuette wave (b), then a parallel copy is placed upon the end of minuette wave (a). Only the end of micro wave 3 is overshooting the channel, and as this is a third wave that is entirely acceptable, even should be expected.
Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 18.581.
I am still considering this alternate idea because for the main wave count (at the daily chart level) minor wave E of the triangle is such a strong overshoot. Sometimes E waves overshoot the A-C trend line of triangles when they come to an end, but not by that much. It has a slightly strange look.
This wave count requires a new high above 21.579 for confirmation. While price remains below 21.579 the main wave count will have a much higher probability.
At 25.484 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A.
While the Elliott wave monthly chart looks fairly clear at this time, the Elliott wave daily chart is not. With GDX data I cannot look at subdivisions on any time frame below daily.
I have one monthly wave count and two daily charts for you this week.
Click charts to enlarge.
The clearest piece of movement is the downwards movement from the high. This looks most like a first, second and third wave. This may be the start of a larger correction.
Intermediate wave (3) is $1.06 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).
Within intermediate wave (3) there are no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.
Ratios within minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $2.19 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave i.
Ratios within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $0.63 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave iii.
Draw a parallel channel about this downwards movement. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the high of intermediate wave (2). Intermediate wave (4) found some resistance just above the upper edge of the channel.
Intermediate wave (4) may be over already, or it may continue further sideways or higher for another one to few weeks. Only movement below 21.93 would confirm that intermediate wave (4) is over and intermediate wave (5) is underway.
The two daily wave counts below are in no particular order. I am not confident that I know this market well enough at this stage (I only began analysing GDX in October 2013) to be able to judge how its structures normally look.
Daily Wave Count I.
At 29.72 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A.
This would see intermediate wave (4) move comfortably outside the parallel channel on the monthly chart, copied over here to the daily chart (black trend line). I do not know how common this is for GDX, but it is reasonably common for all markets for fourth waves to not be contained within a channel drawn using Elliott’s first technique.
Within minor wave C minute waves iii and v may be shorter than minute wave i.
This wave count would be confirmed with movement above 27.78.
This first wave count sees the upwards wave for minor wave A as a five wave impulse. I think this has a slightly better fit than seeing this movement as a three.
Within minute wave iii no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 25.59.
Daily Wave Count II.
Intermediate wave (4) may be over with a very slightly truncated C wave (by 0.25).
If intermediate wave (5) has begun then within it a first and second wave are now very likely to be complete.
Minute wave ii is an expanded flat correction: within it minuette wave (b) is a 112% correction of minuette wave (a), and minuette wave (c) is just 0.08 short of 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a). Within minuette wave (b) subminuette wave b is also an expanded flat correction.
At 22.31 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i.
I would have confidence in this second wave count if the first wave count is invalidated with movement below 25.59.
At 11.22 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). This target is likely to be several weeks away.
If I was asked to pick a winner for GDX (which I don’t like to do) I would pick this second wave count. But the invalidation / confirmation points are now close by and it would be wiser to wait for one to be crossed.
End of week Elliott wave analysis expected Monday to begin with downwards movement to a short term target at 1,289 before the upwards trend resumed. Price has moved lower, but did only to 1,295.69 so far.