Downwards movement continues as expected. The target has been passed. The Elliott wave count remains the same.
Another green candlestick was allowed for in the wave count, and upwards movement remains just below the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio on the main hourly Elliott wave chart.
Again, downwards movement continued. With Monday’s session closing on a green candlestick, the wave count is slightly changed.
As expected GDX has moved lower. This Elliott wave count looks correct so far. We have some price confirmation with a new low below 25.59.
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The clearest piece of movement is the downwards movement from the high. This looks most like a first, second and third wave. This may be the start of a larger correction.
Intermediate wave (3) is $1.06 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).
Within intermediate wave (3) there are no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.
Ratios within minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $2.19 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave i.
Ratios within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $0.63 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave iii.
I have played with how to best draw a channel about this downwards movement, which does not fit perfectly into a channel drawn using either of Elliott’s techniques but does fit best if his first technique is used: draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy on the high of intermediate wave (2).
Intermediate wave (5) must subdivide as a five wave structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. So far the first five down for minor wave 1 is incomplete. If minor wave 1 completes as a five wave impulse then intermediate wave (5) must be unfolding as an impulse, because an ending diagonal requires all the subwaves to be zigzags.
At 22.32 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i.
Ratios within minuette wave (i) are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 0.6489 short of 0.618 the length of subminuette wave i.
Ratios within minuette wave (iii) are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves iii and i, and subminuette wave v is 0.13 longer than equality with subminuette wave iii.
I am not sure if minuette wave (iv) is complete or not; if not, minuette wave (iv) could move price further sideways and higher but may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory above 25.75. Minuette wave (ii) lasted four days and was a relatively deep 55% zigzag. Minuette wave (iv) may be a relatively shallow flat, triangle or combination.
Minute wave ii was a very deep expanded flat. When minute wave iv arrives I would expect it to most likely be a very shallow correction of minute wave iii. I also expect minute wave iv may be a very shallow zigzag, triangle or combination; should be a sideways movement; would most likely last up to 21 days; and may be more brief than this if it is a zigzag as they do tend to be briefer structures.
At this stage I would expect the target at 22.32 to be about one or two weeks away.
At 14.15 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). This target is likely to be several weeks away.
*Note: My last calculation for this target was wrong.
At this stage I expect Silver should end this first wave down next week. The short term target is 18.335. Thereafter, a second wave correction should unfold which may be very deep.
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Downwards movement subdivides so far as an incomplete double zigzag. This cannot be an impulse if the movement which I have labeled primary wave X is correct as a triangle because a triangle may not be the sole structure in a second wave position.
The first zigzag in the double is labeled primary wave W. The double is joined by a “three”, a triangle, in the opposite direction labeled primary wave X.
The second zigzag for primary wave Y is moving price lower to deepen the correction, and so this structure has a typical double zigzag look in that it has a clear slope against the main trend.
Within primary wave Y the triangle for intermediate wave (B) is now a complete barrier triangle. Movements following triangles, and particularly barrier triangles, have a tendency to be relatively short and brief (more common), or sometimes they are a very long extension. The higher target has a higher probability for this reason.
Within primary wave Y at 11.52 intermediate wave (C) would reach 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 5.309 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).
Within primary wave Y intermediate wave (A) lasted 30 weeks, and intermediate wave (B) lasted exactly a Fibonacci 54 weeks. I would expect intermediate wave (C) to end in a total 21 or 34 weeks. So far it has lasted 9 weeks and may yet continue towards the target for a further 12 or 25 weeks, if it exhibits a Fibonacci duration. However, please note, Silver does not reliably exhibit Fibonacci durations nor do its waves reliably exhibit Fibonacci ratios to each other in terms of duration. This expectation of another 12 or 25 weeks can only be a rough guideline.
For July, August and September the strongest volume is on down days. This traditional technical analysis supports the Elliott wave count.
The triangle for intermediate wave (B) is very likely to be complete. It is a barrier triangle: the B-D trend line is essentially flat (in fact, minor wave D ends very slightly below the end of minor wave B by 0.004).
Intermediate wave (C) downwards should subdivide as a five wave structure, either an impulse (most likely) or an ending diagonal (less likely). At this stage it is far too early to tell which structure may unfold although an impulse does look to be what is happening.
Minor wave 1 is almost complete, and it is unfolding as a simple impulse.
Within minor wave 1 there is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii. This makes it more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio exhibited for minute wave v to either of i or iii. At 18.335 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave i. As this is the most common relationship for a fifth wave this target has the highest probability.
Ratios within minute wave iii are: there is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii), and minuette wave (v) is 0.053 longer than 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).
Ratios within minuette wave (iii) are: there is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves i and iii, and subminuette wave v is 0.019 longer than equality with subminuette wave i.
Minor wave 1 does not fit nicely into a channel drawn using either of Elliott’s techniques so I have drawn a best fit channel instead. When this channel is very clearly breached by a full daily candlestick above the upper pink trend line and not touching it then I would have confidence that minor wave 1 is over and minor wave 2 is underway. I would expect minor wave 2 to most likely be deep, maybe reaching up to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1.
Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 21.579.
Only the final fifth wave downwards is required to complete the structure for minor wave 1.
Minute wave v is incomplete. This downwards wave fits nicely so far into a channel drawn using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the lows labeled minuette waves (i) to (iii), then place a parallel copy on the high labeled minuette wave (ii). In the first instance I would expect minuette wave (iv) to find resistance at the upper edge of that channel, and it may end there. Sometimes though fourth wave corrections are not contained within the channel which is why Elliott had a second technique to use when they breach the channel.
Minuette wave (ii) was a relatively deep 55% expanded flat correction. Minuette wave (iv) may be completing as a more shallow zigzag. It may end about the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minuette wave (iii) at 18.719.
Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory above 18.920.
When there is one more wave down to new lows, which may be minuette wave (v), then subsequent movement above 18.920 would provide price confirmation that minor wave 1 is over because at that stage upwards movement could not be a continuation of minuette wave (iv), so minute wave v and minor wave 1 would have to be over.
Downwards movement continued as expected from last Elliott wave analysis. I have a new alternate wave count for you which differs at the weekly and daily chart level.
Although the short term target was too high, the second hourly Elliott wave count was more correct.
I have just the one daily Elliott wave count and now one hourly Elliott wave count for you today.
Another downwards day and another red candlestick was expected. The short term target was not met with price $2.73 short of the target.
Price has moved lower which was expected, but the short term target was not met.
Downwards movement continues as expected. Upwards corrections are finding resistance at the upper edge of the small green channel on the hourly chart, as expected.
The Elliott wave count remains the same.
Summary: The short term target at 1,241 may be met within 24 hours now. Thereafter, a small upwards correction may last a day or two. The mid term target remains the same at 1,231, with a second lower possibility at 1,221 – 1,218.
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The black (B)-(D) trend line is clearly breached. There are now four clear daily candlesticks below this black trend line and so I have confidence that primary wave 5 has begun. The black (B)-(D) trend line is now also clearly breached on the weekly chart. This is significant.
In the last few trading days it is downwards days which have clearly higher volume. From a traditional technical analysis point of view this indicates the main trend is most likely down.
At 956.97 primary wave 5 would reach equality in length with primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 is $12.54 short of 1.618 the length of primary wave 1, and equality between primary waves 5 and 1 would give a perfect Elliott relationship for this downwards movement.
However, when triangles take their time and move close to the apex of the triangle, as primary wave 4 has (looking at this on a weekly chart is clearer) the movement following the triangle is often shorter and weaker than expected. If the target at 956.97 is wrong it may be too low. In the first instance I expect it is extremely likely that primary wave 5 will move at least below the end of primary wave 3 at 1,180.40 to avoid a truncation. When intermediate waves (1) through to (4) within primary wave 5 are complete I will recalculate the target at intermediate degree because this would have a higher accuracy. I cannot do that yet; I can only calculate it at primary degree.
On a weekly chart extend the triangle trend lines of primary wave 4 outwards. The point in time at which they cross over may be the point in time at which primary wave 5 ends. This does not always work, but it works often enough to look out for. It is a rough guideline only and not definitive. A trend line placed from the end of primary wave 4 to the target of primary wave 5 at this point in time shows primary wave 5 would take a total 26 weeks to reach that point, and that is what I will expect. So far it is in its ninth week.
Minor wave 1 is a leading contracting diagonal. This was followed by a somewhat deep correction, a zigzag for minor wave 2.
Within minute wave v no second wave correction may move beyond its start above 1,296.60.
Draw a channel about minor wave 3 on the daily chart and copy it over carefully to the hourly chart: draw the first trend line from the highs labeled minute waves ii to iv, then place a parallel copy on the low labeled minute wave iii. Expect downwards movement for minute wave v to find support, and maybe end, at this lower pink trend line.
Because subminuette wave ii within minuette wave (v) shows up clearly on the daily chart, I expect that minuette wave (v) is extending. When subminuette wave iv arrives I would expect it is highly likely to also show up on the daily chart.
So far price remains contained within the small channel drawn on the hourly chart about minute wave v. Draw this green channel using Elliott’s second technique: draw the first trend line from the highs labeled minuette waves (ii) to (iv), then place a parallel copy on the low labeled minuette wave (iii). Minuette wave (v) may breach the lower edge of this channel as sometimes strong extended fifth waves in commodity markets do this.
At 1,241 subminuette wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i. This target looks like it should be met within 24 hours now.
When subminuette wave iii is complete I will expect a shallow sideways correction for subminuette wave iv to show alternation with subminuette wave ii. Subminuette wave iv is very likely to show on the daily chart as at least one green candlestick or doji.
At 1,231 minuette wave (v) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (iii). Because there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii) it is very likely that minuette wave (v) will exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either of minuette waves (i) or (iii). This first higher target has the better probability.
If price keeps dropping through this first target, or if when it gets there the structure is incomplete, then the second lower probability target would be used.
At 1,218 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. At 1,221 minute wave v within minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave iii.
Within suminuette wave iii micro wave 4 may not move into micro wave 1 price territory above 1,264.55.
This analysis is published about 05:20 p.m. EST.
A green candlestick on the daily Elliott wave chart indicates this last fifth wave will be extended, and will take its time. The targets remain the same. Upwards movement remains below the invalidation point and ended at the upper edge of the channel, as expected it should.
A throwback up to the (B)-(D) trend line was expected from yesterday’s Elliott wave analysis, which is exactly what happened. Price came extremely close to the trend line before sharply turning back downwards.
Analysis is a little earlier than usual today.
Price remains below the black (B)-(D) trend line on the daily chart. I expect Wednesday’s session will close below this line providing full confirmation of this wave count.