A downwards swing was expected, but it was much more shallow than the target.
A little more downwards movement was expected to a target at 1,266. Price did move lower, but did not make a new low and has fallen $2.34 short of the target.
Downwards movement continued as expected for Tuesday. The target at 1,275 was passed and price remains above the invalidation point on the hourly chart and still within the channel.
More upwards movement was expected for Oil for the week. This is not what happened. A pullback remains just above the invalidation point on the main Elliott wave count.
Downwards movement has unfolded as expected for Monday’s session.
Price was expected to fall for Friday, but it moved slightly higher.
This chart was published two days ago. At that time, it was warned that the possible upwards breakout of the 8th of August lacked support from volume and may turn out to be false:
That was proven correct. The strong downwards movement from the S&P comes on a day with an increase in volume. This is a classic downwards breakout.
When a downwards breakout has support from volume, that adds confidence in it. Downwards breakouts do not require support from volume; the market may fall of its own weight. Price can fall due to an absence of buyers as easily as it can from an increase in activity of sellers. But when volume supports downwards movement, it may be more sustainable, at least for the short term.
This downwards breakout was predicted by strongest volume during the consolidation being a downwards day.
This volume analysis technique looks at the presence or absence of support from volume on the breakout after a consolidation period to tells us how reliable the breakout may be.
Published @ 12:17 a.m. EST on 12th August, 2017.
The target at 1,279 was expected to be a little low. A trend line higher up was expected to halt upwards movement. However, this is not what has happened, and the trend line is overshot.
The main Elliott wave count is changed today.
A pullback continued as expected from last analysis.
Upwards movement was unexpected and has invalidated the Elliott wave count at the hourly chart level.
After a consolidation price will break out. The presence or absence of support from volume on the breakout tells us how reliable the breakout may be.
Pennant patterns are one of the most reliable continuation patterns. But in an upwards trend the breakout should have support from volume.
For price to keep rising it requires increased activity of buyers. Upwards breakouts that do not have support from volume are suspicious.
This upwards breakout comes on a day with slightly higher volume, but the balance of volume for the session is downwards. Stronger volume during the session supported downwards movement, not upwards.
The breakout is suspicious and may turn out to be false.
While volume is important for upwards breakouts, it is not so important for downwards breakouts. The market may fall of its own weight.
Published @ 04:47 p.m. EST.
A short term target for Tuesday was 1,247. The low for the session fell $5.39 short of the target, after a whipsaw took out the short term invalidation point on the hourly Elliott wave chart.
More upwards movement was expected for the week for US Oil. Price has moved sideways, remaining above the invalidation point on the daily Elliott wave count.