Category Archives: US Oil

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th February, 2017

This consolidation has now lasted for about 12 weeks. The breakout should come soon now.

Volume and On Balance Volume are giving strong signals as to which direction the breakout is most likely to be. Members are offered some advice on how to approach this market this week.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th February, 2017

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th February, 2017

Price is still range bound. On Balance Volume is giving a strong signal about what direction price will break out.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th February, 2017

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th February, 2017

Again, price continues to consolidate for US Oil and On Balance Volume may assist to show the breakout direction, so it should be watched carefully.

The Elliott wave counts remain the same.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th February, 2017

The Trading Room – 13th February, 2017

Today’s Trading Room looks at USDJPY, USD Index, NZDUSD, EURUSD and US Oil (by popular demand).

To learn what the Trading Room is about see last Trading Room analysis here.

USDJPY

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USDJPY Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

For the long term, assume the trend remains up until proven otherwise. The long term 200 day moving average still has a positive slope, and the short and mid term averages are still above it.

For the mid term, price has seen a relatively deep pullback. The question will be: Is this over and will the upwards trend resume?

Price is at support just above 111 (horizontal support and resistance lines are drawn after looking back 3 years). Resistance is just above 114 and next about 116.

There is some bullish divergence with RSI, but RSI did not reach oversold for this pullback.

The risk here is that the pullback may move lower and RSI may develop double divergence with price before price turns up.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

USDJPY Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This wave count has excellent alternation and Fibonacci ratios. There are also some close Fibonacci durations for waves.

If intermediate wave (4) moves lower, it should find strong support at the lower edge of the best fit channel. Double zigzags are reasonably common structures. Triple zigzags (labelled W-X-Y-X-Z) are very rare. If intermediate (4) is correctly labelled as a double zigzag, then the probability that it is over here is very high.

VOLUME ANALYSIS

USDJPY Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Volume increased during the middle portion of the pullback, and now at the last low volume declined as price fell; the market fell of its own weight. This points to a tired trend. Price certainly could move lower here, but the probability of a low in place has slightly increased.

On Balance Volume is at support. If it breaks below the yellow line, that would be a bearish signal.

USD INDEX

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Price has moved upwards since last analysis of this market.

The long term trend should be assumed to remain upwards until proven otherwise. This downwards movement should be assumed to be a pullback within a larger upwards trend.

Looking back at price behaviour in the last upwards wave from the left of this chart: price starts out slowly with choppy movement, generally trending, and it is not until the middle of the movement that Bollinger Bands widen and ATR shows a good increase. Then the trend quickly became extreme, yet price continued upwards while ADX steadily declined from about 45. So trends for this market can remain very extreme for long periods of time.

The current situation looks similar to that back in September 2016: ATR is declining as price moves up, Bollinger Bands are contracting, ADX is low and below both directional lines, and RSI is neutral. In the current day, Stochastics is also returning from oversold and exhibits single bullish divergence at last lows.

It is looking like USD index may be in the very early stages of the next wave upwards.

Unfortunately, neither BarChart nor Stockcharts provide volume data for the USD Index, so no volume analysis can be done.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

USD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The structure of intermediate wave (3) and of primary wave 5 is incomplete. Price has found support and bounced up off the best fit channel. The short term yellow resistance line is breached. It is looking increasingly likely that USD index is beginning the next wave up.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

NZDUSD

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

NZDUSD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Since last analysis of this pair, which was very bearish, price has fallen and closed below the short term Fibonacci 13 day moving average. The long, red daily candlesticks look bearish, and the longer upper wicks on the first two are bearish.

RSI is now neutral and Stochastics is returning from overbought. There is room for this wave down to continue.

ADX was extreme. It has a long way down to go before it would again indicate a trend.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS + VOLUME ANALYSIS

NZDUSD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The green support line has been fully breached.

The structure here is seen as a leading expanding diagonal. The fifth wave of minute wave v must be longer than minute wave iii to meet the rule regarding wave lengths for expanding diagonals. This gives the minimum target calculation.

A trend line is drawn about On Balance Volume, which has been tested at least three times before and is long held. It is now breached and OBV is coming up for a back test of resistance. If this line holds, it would be strengthened and more confidence would be had that price has turned.

The three red daily candlesticks in last week saw increasing volume. This supports downwards movement and adds confidence in a trend change here.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

EURUSD

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EURUSD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Support and resistance lines are added this week. Look for support next at 1.055.

This pair is not as clearly bearish as NZDUSD, but it does look like they may be turning downwards together. Look out for Bollinger Bands to widen as volatility returns to this market.

Stochastics is returning from overbought after exhibiting divergence there. If it reaches oversold while price reaches support, then this market will be carefully analysed for any weakness in downwards movement.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS + VOLUME ANALYSIS

EURUSD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

On Balance Volume remains bearish. A back test of resistance for both yellow trend lines has happened and OBV has turned down from both giving bearish signals.

The best fit channel has been breached. A one day throw back occurred right after the breach, but price may still curve up and around for a longer back test of resistance. That is the risk here to short positions.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

US Oil

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USOil Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

US Oil entered a consolidation back in December 2016. Since then price has been fluctuating with typically choppy movement from resistance to support and back again. Resistance is about 54.15 to 54.35 and support is about 52.15 to as low as 50.70. During this long consolidation, it is now two upwards days that have strongest volume suggesting an upwards breakout is more likely than downwards.

On Balance Volume has last week given a strong bullish signal.

Prepare for an upwards breakout. This may happen this week.

A classic analysis target would expect price to travel at least the distance of the widest part of the consolidation after a breakout. That would expect a movement of about 4.53.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

USOil Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The Elliott wave analysis is overall very bearish for US Oil. This is an alternate wave count that is published here because it aligns with the classic technical analysis today.

This wave count expects essentially that any upwards breakout may be false and short lived.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

DISCLAIMER

As always, it is essential that anyone using this analysis for trading advice manages risk carefully. Follow my two Golden Rules:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Never invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

Trading is about probabilities, not certainties. Failure to follow my two Golden Rules of trading indicates failure to manage risk.

Accept that this analysis may be wrong. It is impossible for any analyst to predict with certainty what a market will do next.

This analysis is published @ 06:27 p.m. EST on 12th February, 2017.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th February, 2017

Price continues to consolidate for US Oil. On Balance Volume may assist to show the breakout direction, so it should be watched carefully.

The Elliott wave counts remain the same.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th February, 2017

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st January, 2017

Price has moved sideways for the week. A new Elliott wave count fits sideways movement.

Summary: A new high above 55.24 would indicate an upwards breakout, and the target would be 55.60. A new low below 50.91 would indicate a downwards breakout, and the target would be 28.61 minimum, possibly 25.59.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Within the bear market, cycle wave b is seen as ending in May 2011. Thereafter, a five wave structure downwards for cycle wave c begins.

Primary wave 1 is a short impulse lasting five months. Primary wave 2 is a very deep 0.94 zigzag lasting 22 months. Primary wave 3 is a complete impulse with no Fibonacci ratio to primary wave 1. It lasted 30 months.

Primary wave 4 is likely to exhibit alternation with primary wave 2. Primary wave 4 is most likely to be a flat, combination or triangle. Within all of these types of structures, the first movement subdivides as a three. The least likely structure for primary wave 4 is a zigzag.

Primary wave 4 is likely to end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree; intermediate wave (4) has its range from 42.03 to 62.58.

Primary wave 4 may end if price comes up to touch the upper edge of the maroon channel. The upper edge of this channel has been pushed up to sit on the end of intermediate wave (2) within primary wave 3.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be shallow to exhibit alternation in depth with primary wave 2. So far it has passed the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio at 45.52. It may now continue to move mostly sideways in a large range.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory above 74.96.

At this stage, primary wave 4 has completed intermediate wave (A) only. Intermediate wave (B) is incomplete.

WEEKLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

The whole structure of primary wave 4 is seen here in more detail.

The first wave labelled intermediate wave (A) is seen as a double zigzag, which is classified as a three.

Intermediate wave (B) is also a three. This means primary wave 4 is most likely unfolding as a flat correction if my analysis of intermediate wave (A) is correct. Flats are very common structures.

Intermediate wave (B) began with a zigzag downwards. This indicates it too is unfolding most likely as a flat correction.

Within intermediate wave (B), the zigzag upwards for minor wave B is a 1.29 correction of minor wave A. This indicates intermediate wave (B) may be unfolding as an expanded flat, the most common type.

The normal range for intermediate wave (B) within a flat correction for primary wave 4 is from 1 to 1.38 the length of intermediate wave (A) giving a range from 26.06 to 16.33.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory above 74.96.

Within the larger expanded flat correction of primary wave 4, intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 28.61 or below.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave B is seen in this main wave count as a complete single zigzag. The upwards wave labelled minute wave a is seen as a five wave impulse.

Minor wave C downwards should have begun. Within minor wave C, minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 55.24.

Minor wave C downwards must subdivide as a five wave structure.

So far, minute wave i may be complete and minute wave ii may be an incomplete expanded flat correction. Within minute wave ii, minuette wave (c) must be a five wave structure that so far looks to be unfolding as an ending contracting diagonal that’s incomplete. The classic pattern equivalent is a rising wedge.

Contracting diagonals almost always end with a small overshoot of the 1-3 trend line. If this is seen, then expect an end to upwards movement as very likely.

Minuette wave (c) is very likely to make a slight new high above the end of minuette wave (a) at 54.32 to avoid a truncation and a very rare running flat.

A new low below 50.91 would invalidate the alternate wave count below and provide some confidence in this main wave count.

ALTERNATE DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave B is seen as an incomplete double zigzag. The first wave up labelled minute wave w is seen as a zigzag. This is the main difference between the two wave counts.

Minute wave y must subdivide as a zigzag. Sideways movement over the last few weeks may be a triangle within it for minuette wave (b).

Minuette wave (c) would be very likely to make at least a slight new high above the end of minuette wave (a) at 54.50 to avoid a truncation.

The normal range for minor wave B within the larger flat correction of intermediate wave (B) is from 1 to 1.38 the length of minor wave A, giving a range from 51.67 to 56.41. The target calculated for minuette wave (c) to end would see price end within this range.

In the short term, within minuette wave (c), the correction for subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i below 50.91.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

US Oil Chart Daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Price continues to move sideways with declining volume. Price is bound by resistance about 54.50 and support about 50.35. During this sideways consolidation, it is an upwards day which has strongest volume suggesting an upwards breakout is more likely than downwards. This supports the new alternate Elliott wave count.

ADX is flat and below 15 indicating the market is not currently trending; it is consolidating. The +DX and -DX lines are whipsawing about each other. There is no clear trend.

ATR is overall flat in agreement with ADX that Oil is consolidating.

On Balance Volume is bound by resistance and support. No breakout yet has occurred to indicate the next direction for price. OBV has come down to touch the yellow support line today. This may assist to halt the fall in price here. This supports the alternate Elliott wave count.

RSI is hovering about neutral. There is plenty of room for price to rise or fall.

Stochastics is returning from oversold.

A range bound approach to this market may now expect price to move higher and only end an upward swing when price finds resistance and Stochastics reaches overbought at the same time.

Bollinger Bands are tightly contracted. Volatility will return to this market. The longer Bollinger Bands remain contracted the more explosive the next movement may be.

This week’s classic technical analysis slightly supports the alternate Elliott wave count over the main Elliott wave count. The situation is still mostly unclear for Oil this week.

This analysis is published @ 01:47 a.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st January, 2017

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd January, 2017

Price has moved slightly higher for the week with a slightly higher high and a slightly higher low from the prior week.

The Elliott wave count remains the same.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd January, 2017

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th January, 2017

Price has moved overall lower as last week’s Elliott wave and technical analysis expected.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th January, 2017

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th January, 2017

The target for upwards movement to end was at 58.05. It has not been met. The Elliott wave count remains the same.

Summary: Downwards movement is now expected to at least 28.61. The target is at 25.59. A new low below 49.96 would add confidence that price has turned downwards.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Within the bear market, cycle wave b is seen as ending in May 2011. Thereafter, a five wave structure downwards for cycle wave c begins.

Primary wave 1 is a short impulse lasting five months. Primary wave 2 is a very deep 0.94 zigzag lasting 22 months. Primary wave 3 is a complete impulse with no Fibonacci ratio to primary wave 1. It lasted 30 months.

Primary wave 4 is likely to exhibit alternation with primary wave 2. Primary wave 4 is most likely to be a flat, combination or triangle. Within all of these types of structures, the first movement subdivides as a three. The least likely structure for primary wave 4 is a zigzag.

Primary wave 4 is likely to end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree; intermediate wave (4) has its range from 42.03 to 62.58.

Primary wave 4 may end if price comes up to touch the upper edge of the maroon channel. The upper edge of this channel has been pushed up to sit on the end of intermediate wave (2) within primary wave 3.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be shallow to exhibit alternation in depth with primary wave 2. So far it has passed the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio at 45.52. It may now continue to move mostly sideways in a large range.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory above 74.96.

At this stage, primary wave 4 has completed intermediate wave (A) only. Intermediate wave (B) is incomplete.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (B) still looks like it is unfolding as a flat correction. Within intermediate wave (B), minor wave A is a zigzag and minor wave B is now a complete zigzag.

Minor wave B is a 1.29 length of minor wave A. This is within the normal range of 1 to 1.38. This indicates intermediate wave (B) is an expanded flat, as within it minor wave B is longer than 1.05 the length of minor wave A.

It must be accepted that minor wave B could continue higher while price remains above the confidence point at 49.96. A new low below the start of minuette wave (v) at 49.96 could not be a second wave correction within the last fifth wave up, so at that stage confidence may be had in a trend change.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory above 74.96.

Minor wave C downwards must subdivide as a five wave structure.

Because intermediate wave (A) fits so well as a three wave structure, it is still most likely that intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 28.61. When an A wave subdivides as a three, then a flat correction is indicated.

The normal range for intermediate wave (B) within a flat correction is from 1 to 1.38 the length of intermediate wave (A) giving a range from 26.06 to 16.33.

Price has broken below the lower edge of the channel, which was drawn on the daily chart in the last analysis. Price behaviour around the upwards sloping green trend line suggests a trend change. Price may now find resistance about the downwards sloping green trend line.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

US Oil Chart Daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

For the last five sessions, the two downwards sessions have stronger volume than the upwards sessions. This suggests the trend may now be down.

ADX has today indicated a possible trend change to downwards: the -DX line has crossed above the +DX line. The ADX line is declining though, so no new trend is yet indicated.

The short term Fibonacci 21 day moving average has today turned downwards, but it remains above the mid and long term averages and those both remain pointing upwards. If there has been a trend change, then it is very early.

Price found resistance about 54.15 and 55.55. The next line of support is currently held at 52.05 and then at 50.30.

ATR has had a period of decline as price moved higher. This supports the Elliott wave count because it sees that upwards movement as a B wave. Now ATR may be beginning to increase.

On Balance Volume gives no indication yet of direction. It remains constrained below resistance and above support.

RSI has just crossed over to bearish territory today.

Stochastics is bearish and is not extreme. There is plenty of room for price to fall.

Bollinger Bands are tightly contracted.

This analysis is published @ 10:54 p.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th January, 2017

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th December, 2016

Upwards movement is continuing as expected.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th December, 2016