Tag Archives: gdx prediction elliott wave 2014

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th March, 2015

A slight new low below 20.42 is enough to invalidate the alternate Elliott wave count. For GDX I now have only one Elliott wave count.

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GDX does not appear to have sufficient volume for Elliott wave analysis of this market to be reliable. It exhibits truncations readily, and often its threes look like fives while its fives look like threes. I will let my Gold analysis lead GDX, and I will not let GDX determine my Gold analysis for this reason.

GDX monthly 2014

I have learned the hard way, specifically with AAPL, that in a market with insufficient volume (even at a monthly chart level) if a movement looks like a three or a five that this apparent clear structure may not be relied upon.

For GDX this downwards movement looks like a developing five as an impulse. The final fifth wave for intermediate wave (5) looks like it is underway.

The channel drawn here is a best fit. The upper edge has recently provided resistance again.

At 14.13 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). However, so far in my analysis of GDX I have noticed it does not reliably exhibit Fibonacci ratios between its actionary waves. This makes target calculation with any reliability impossible for this market. The target at 14.13 is indicative only of a somewhat likely point for downwards movement to end.

Within intermediate wave (5) minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 27.78.

GDX daily 2014

I had expected minute wave ii to move higher to 22.13 or above. It did not manage that, and only managed to correct to 0.389 of minute wave i.

At 16.86 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. This target expects an extended fifth wave to end minor wave 3 so that minor wave 3 moves far enough below the end of minor wave 1 to allow room for subsequent upwards / sideways movement for minor wave 4, which cannot move back into minor wave 1 price territory.

As minute wave iii continues lower keep redrawing the channel. Draw the first trend line from the end of minute wave i to wherever minute wave iii ends, then place a parallel copy on the high labelled minute wave ii. Minute wave iv may be contained within this channel.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory above 20.50.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th February, 2015

A slight new low below 20.42 is enough to invalidate the alternate Elliott wave count. For GDX I now have only one Elliott wave count.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX does not appear to have sufficient volume for Elliott wave analysis of this market to be reliable. It exhibits truncations readily, and often its threes look like fives while its fives look like threes. I will let my Gold analysis lead GDX, and I will not let GDX determine my Gold analysis for this reason.

GDX monthly 2014

I have learned the hard way, specifically with AAPL, that in a market with insufficient volume (even at a monthly chart level) if a movement looks like a three or a five that this apparent clear structure may not be relied upon.

For GDX this downwards movement looks like a developing five as an impulse. The final fifth wave for intermediate wave (5) looks like it is underway.

The channel drawn here is a best fit. The upper edge has recently provided resistance again.

At 14.13 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). However, so far in my analysis of GDX I have noticed it does not reliably exhibit Fibonacci ratios between its actionary waves. This makes target calculation with any reliability impossible for this market. The target at 14.13 is indicative only of a somewhat likely point for downwards movement to end.

Within intermediate wave (5) minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 27.78.

GDX daily 2014

So far within the new downwards movement of minor wave 3, I have tried to see this as either a series of overlapping first and second waves or a completed diagonal. The diagonal has a better fit.

This wave count expects some upwards movement for minute wave ii. Second wave corrections following leading diagonals in first wave positions are often quite deep, at least to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio and sometimes deeper. I would expect minute wave ii to move higher to 22.13 or above.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 23.22.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th February, 2015

The situation for GDX remains exactly the same as last Elliott wave analysis.

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GDX daily 2014

For GDX the main and alternate wave counts have exactly the same subdivisions, only the degree of labelling differs. This means it is impossible at this stage to determine which is correct, and in my judgement they have a completely even probability.

A-B-C and 1-2-3 have exactly the same subdivisions as they both subdivide 5-3-5. This main wave count requires a new low below 20.42 for confirmation.

At this stage a new high above 23.22 would substantially reduce the probability (but not finally invalidate) of this wave count. If this happens the alternate will be strongly preferred.

Alternatively, if this main wave count is correct then downwards movement should begin to build momentum as a third wave begins.

GDX daily alternate 2014

This wave count moves everything within intermediate wave (5) up one degree to see it as a complete impulse.

Within the new upwards trend a clear five up should develop on the daily chart. Within that minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 20.42.

Minor wave 2 looks like a zigzag. Minor wave 4 is probably incomplete, and may continue sideways to be better in proportion to minor wave 2 (although GDX does not always have nicely proportioned waves). If minor wave 4 is a flat correction it would exhibit alternation with minor wave 2. This may include a new high above 23.22 for minute wave b, because within a flat the B wave may move beyond the start of its A wave. If this happens this alternate would be strongly favoured.

At first glance it looks like minor wave 4 may be unfolding as a triangle, but that does not fit. Minute wave c would be slightly below the end of minute wave a which is invalid for a contracting triangle.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th January, 2015

The third wave is over, and it did not reach the target. The fourth wave is either over or halfway through.

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GDX monthly 2014

I see an incomplete five wave structure downwards. The final fifth wave for intermediate wave (5) is unfolding. At 14.13 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1).

I have changed this monthly chart to a semi log scale to try and get the channel right. This channel is a best fit and may show where minor wave 2 upwards finds resistance. This indicates that the target for minor wave 2 to end may be too high.

GDX daily 2014

Minuette wave (iii) is over and minuette wave (iv) is either over also, or halfway through.

Minuette wave (ii) was a deep 65% correction, so I would expect minuette wave (iv) to be shallow. So far it is 45% which fits. Minuette wave (ii) was probably a combination lasting 5 days. Minuette wave (iv) may well be more brief if it is a zigzag for alternation.

It is impossible for me to tell if this fourth wave correction is over, but I am confident that GDX needs at least one more upwards wave to complete this structure.

Redraw the channel about minute wave c as shown. Look for upwards movement to find resistance at the upper edge of this channel.

When a final fifth wave up is complete, then a subsequent breach of this channel would provide confirmation that minute wave c is over, and so minor wave 2 should be over. At that point minor wave 3 down should have begun.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 at 27.78.

Within minute wave c minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory below 19.03.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th January, 2015

GDX continues higher as expected.

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GDX monthly 2014

I see an incomplete five wave structure downwards. The final fifth wave for intermediate wave (5) is unfolding. At 14.13 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1).

I have changed this monthly chart to a semi log scale to try and get the channel right, and have redrawn it today. This channel is a best fit and may show where minor wave 2 upwards finds resistance. This indicates that the target for minor wave 2 to end may be too high.

GDX daily 2014

I do not think minuette wave (iii) is over yet. I am labelling minuette wave (ii) as a sideways combination. I have noticed so far that GDX tends to exhibit truncations quite frequently; although this is not technically a truncation (that refers to fifth and C waves only, this is a Y wave) the behaviour is like a truncation, and this would be typical of GDX. It fits in terms of proportion.

Only when the narrow orange channel about minuette wave (iii) is breached to the downside would I expect that minuette wave (iii) is over and minuette wave (iv) has begun. While price remains within this channel we should expect that the trend remains upwards.

At 22.35 subminuette wave v would reach equality in length with subminuette wave i. At 22.85 minuette wave (iii) would reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

When the small orange channel about minuette wave (iii) is breached then redraw the channel using Elliott’s technique about minute wave c: draw the first trend line from the highs labelled minuette waves (i) to (iii), then place a parallel copy on the low labelled minuette wave (ii). Expect minuette wave (iv) to be very likely to find support about the lower end of that channel, and the following final fifth wave up to end about the upper edge of that channel.

Minuette wave (iv) may not move back down into minuette wave (i) price territory below 19.03. Minuette wave (iv) is most likely to be a shallow correction and it should show on the daily chart. It may last a Fibonacci 3 or 5 days.

At 23.50 minute wave c would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave a, and minor wave 2 would reach up to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 at 23.45.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 at 27.78.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th January, 2015

I will present only the one wave count for you today.

The second alternate from last analysis remains valid for GDX, but it is invalidated for Silver, and has a very low probability so I will not present it today.

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GDX monthly 2014

I see an incomplete five wave structure downwards. The final fifth wave for intermediate wave (5) is unfolding. At 14.13 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1).

I have changed this monthly chart to a semi log scale to try and get the channel right. This channel is a best fit and may show where minor wave 2 upwards finds resistance.

GDX daily 2014

Minor wave 2 is a zigzag which subdivides 5-3-5.

Minute wave c must subdivide as a five wave structure. It looks like it may be an impulse. At 22.26 minuette wave (iii) would reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

The subsequent movement for minuette wave (iv) may not move back into minuette wave (i) price territory below 19.03.

At 23.50 minute wave c would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave a, and minor wave 2 would reach up to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 at 23.45.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 at 27.78.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th December, 2014

I have a new alternate for GDX for you. It fits perfectly with Gold’s Elliott wave analysis today.

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Main Wave Count

GDX daily 2014

This main wave count has an even probability with the alternate below.

Both wave counts are identical to the end of minor wave 1. Thereafter, they see minor wave 2 differently.

This main wave count sees the first wave up within minor wave 2 as a five wave structure. Within minute wave a there is a truncation at the end of minuette wave (ii), or this structure could be a combination. It would be most likely that minuette wave (iv) is a triangle, so there is no truncation there.

For this main wave count minor wave 2 is a zigzag which subdivides 5-3-5.

This possible truncation at the end of minuette wave (ii) has meant that I have considered the alternate. I do not know how readily this market exhibits truncations, but from my experience with GDX so far it does seem to sometimes exhibit truncations. I have noticed so far that its waves do not seem to be as textbook perfect as Gold, and maybe this is because it does not have as high a volume as Gold.

If minute wave a subdivides as a five then minute wave b may not move beyond its start below 16.45. This means that it is very likely that minute wave b would be over now, and has almost no room for downwards movement left. At 23.50 minute wave c would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave a, and minor wave 2 would reach up to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 at 23.45.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 at 27.78.

Alternate Wave Count

GDX daily 2014

It is also possible to see minute wave a as a three wave structure. Now the truncation is avoided. There is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (a) and (c) within minute wave a, but then so far I have noticed that GDX does not exhibit reliable Fibonacci ratios. This does make target calculation more difficult.

For this alternate wave count minor wave 2 is a flat correction which subdivides 3-3-5.

If minute wave a subdivides as a three, then minute wave b may move beyond its start. The lower invalidation point does not apply for this idea. In fact, minute wave b is very likely to move below the start of minute wave a at 16.45 as in an expanded flat correction, because those are very common structures indeed.

Within minute wave b minuette wave (c) will reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a) at 16.44.

Within minuette wave (c) the structure must be a five wave structure. So far it looks like subminuette waves i through to iv would be complete within an impulse. Subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory above 18.86.

If we see a new high above 18.86 and we do not see a new low below 16.45, then the main wave count will be most likely and I would expect that GDX is in an upwards trend to the target about 23.45.

Alternatively, if price does not break above 18.76 in the next day or so and we see a new low then I would expect this alternate wave count is most likely. There is no downwards invalidation point for this wave count; minute wave b can move substantially below 16.45.

The overall picture is still the same though: the structure of minor wave 2 for both wave counts is incomplete and the final target is mostly the same.

Second Alternate Wave Count

GDX daily 2014

This is the other alternate wave count which remains viable for GDX and Gold, but it is invalidated for Silver. Because of that, I consider this to have a very low probability. I probably will not publish this idea again.

For Gold this idea has a horrible look, so much so I don’t want to publish the equivalent wave count for Gold.

Any movement at all at any stage above 20.42 would invalidate this wave count for GDX. I expect this wave count will be invalidated within one or two weeks.

Minor wave 2 is far too brief and shallow to be complete.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th December, 2014

Charts only this week. To see a full write up look at last week’s analysis here.

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Main Wave Count

GDX daily 2014

Still the most likely scenario. Minor wave 2 would be in proportion to minor wave 1. At 24.14 minute wave c would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave a.

Alternate Wave Count

GDX daily alternate 2014

Probably the least likely scenario. The equivalent wave count for Silver is invalidated, and this idea does not work well at all for Gold.

Second Alternate Wave Count

GDX daily alternate II 2014

This is possible, and also possible for Gold and Silver. But minor wave 2 is too shallow and quick. It lacks proportion. This is unlikely.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th November, 2014

Upwards movement was expected for a correction.

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GDX monthly 2014

The clearest piece of movement is the downwards movement from the high. This looks like either a complete five down, or an almost complete five down (if the fifth wave is incomplete). This may be the start of a larger correction. However, I am concerned (after my experience with AAPL) that GDX may not have enough volume for its waves to look always or almost always clearly like threes or fives. I do not have complete confidence that the invalidation point at 66.98 may not be passed.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (3) and (1) (I checked again, and my last analysis was wrong on this point).

Within intermediate wave (3) there are no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $2.19 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $0.63 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave iii.

There is alternation between a deep expanded flat for intermediate wave (2) and a very shallow zigzag for intermediate wave (4).

At 14.13 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality with intermediate wave (1).

I have played with how to best draw a channel about this downwards movement, which does not fit perfectly into a channel drawn using either of Elliott’s techniques but does fit best if his first technique is used: draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy on the high of intermediate wave (2).

GDX daily 2014

Minor wave 1 lasted 83 sessions. I would expect minor wave 2 to last a few weeks. So far it has lasted 16 sessions. It may end in a total Fibonacci 21 or even 34 sessions.

Within it minute wave b may look like a clear three on the daily chart. If minute wave a has subdivided as a five wave impulse as labelled then minute wave b may not move beyond the start of minute wave a below 16.45.

Thereafter, minute wave c upwards would be highly likely to make a new high above the end of minute wave a at 20.42 to avoid a truncation. It would be most likely to end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 at 23.45.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 27.78. If this price point is passed I would use the alternate below.

Alternate Wave Count

GDX daily alternate 2014

For GDX it is possible that primary wave A is over.

If primary wave A is a complete five wave impulse downwards, then there are no Fiboancci ratio between intermediate waves (1), (3) and (5). However, this is only slightly unusual for GDX in my short experience with this specific market.

If primary wave A is over then within the new upwards trend no second wave may move below the start of its first wave at 16.45.

This alternate would be confirmed when the main wave count is invalidated with a new high above 27.78.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th November, 2014

Movement for the last eight days fits this Elliott wave count perfectly.

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GDX daily 2013

Ratios within minor wave 1 are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii, and minute wave v is 0.18 short of 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

Minor wave 1 lasted 83 sessions. I would expect minor wave 2 to last a few weeks. It may last a Fibonacci 13 or 21 sessions, and may end about the 0.382 or 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1, with the 0.618 ratio slightly favoured as this is a second wave correction.

This wave count now matches the new wave count for Gold.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 2nd November, 2014

The target down for minor wave 1 to end was at 19.47. Price has moved well below this target, so far to 16.89, 2.58 below the target. The structure for minute wave v is incomplete. A new target for minor wave 1 downwards is at 16.26 which may be met within one or two days. When that is done I expect upwards movement from GDX for a few weeks.

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GDX daily 2013

Minute wave v is longer than expected and has passed equality with minute wave i. The next target calculated is where it may reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

I expect this final fifth wave down is almost complete. If Monday produces a small green candlestick for minuette wave (iv) that would give this wave count a perfect look. Minuette wave (ii) shows clearly on the daily chart, so minuette wave (iv) may as well. Minuette wave (ii) was a flat correction lasting three days. Minuette wave (iv) may be a more brief zigzag.

Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory above 20.05.

When minute wave v looks like a five wave structure I would expect a trend change at minor degree. At that stage movement above 20.05 would provide price confirmation of the trend change, as at that stage upwards movement could not be a fourth wave correction and so the final fifth wave should be over.

I would expect minor wave 2 to last a few weeks. It may last a Fibonacci 13 or 21 sessions. It may end about the 0.382 or 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1.

The long term target remains the same. At 14.13 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). Intermediate wave (5) should last several more weeks. It is already longer in duration that intermediate wave (1).