Tag Archives: gdx prediction elliott wave 2014

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th October, 2014

I am changing the wave count at the daily chart level. I have more confidence in this wave count today.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX daily 2013

Sideways movement over the last week or so fits nicely as a barrier triangle. Now minute waves ii and iv are better in proportion, and the wave count has a better look.

Minute wave ii was a very deep expanded flat and minute wave iv is a very shallow triangle; there is good alternation between them.

I would expect a short fifth wave to follow the barrier triangle of minute wave iv. At 19.47 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave i. As there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves iii and i it is more likely that minute wave v would exhibit a Fibonacci ratio with either of i or iii, and equality with minute wave i is the most common ratio. This target has a very good probability.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) is 0.40 short of 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is just 0.04 longer than equality with minuette wave (i). This gives a little more confidence that this portion of the wave count is right.

Redraw the channel about minor wave 1: draw the first trend line from the highs labeled minute waves ii to iv, then place a parallel copy on the low labeled mintue wave iii. I would expect minute wave v to end midway within the channel or about the lower edge, with midway more likely.

While minute wave v is unfolding no second wave correction within it may move beyond the start of its first wave above 21.23.

As soon as minute wave v may be seen as complete then the invalidation point must move right up to the start of minor wave 1 at 27.78. Minor wave 2 should last at least a couple of weeks and may be very deep.

The long term target remains the same. At 14.13 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). Intermediate wave (5) should last several more weeks. It is already longer in duration that intermediate wave (1).

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th October, 2014

As expected GDX has moved lower. The target for minute wave iii to end was 22.32 and I expected it to be met one to two weeks after last analysis. It looks like it may have ended at 22.02 one and a half weeks after last analysis.

I expect a little sideways movement to end about 22.78, followed by more downwards movement to new lows.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX monthly 2013

The clearest piece of movement is the downwards movement from the high. This looks most like a first, second and third wave. This may be the start of a larger correction.

Intermediate wave (3) is $1.06 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) there are no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $2.19 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $0.63 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave iii.

I have played with how to best draw a channel about this downwards movement, which does not fit perfectly into a channel drawn using either of Elliott’s techniques but does fit best if his first technique is used: draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy on the high of intermediate wave (2).

GDX daily 2013

Minor wave 1 is now most likely complete. In making this judgement I am relying on three things:

1. The wave count for the Gold cash market sees an intermediate degree trend change at this point.

2. The subdivisions within minor wave 1 are complete.

3. Proportions between second and fourth wave corrections within GDX sometimes differ by multiples up to 5.33.

Within minor wave 1 downwards minute wave iv lasted only 4 days while minute wave ii lasted 21 days. This is a multiple of 5.25.

I have looked back at recent movements which are completed within GDX to see the difference between prior second and fourth waves in terms of duration. For example:

– On this daily chart within minor wave A minute wave iv lasted 16 days, while minute wave ii lasted 3 days, a multiple of 5.33.

– Within intermediate wave (3) minor wave 4 lasted 101 days while minor wave 2 lasted 42 days, a multiple of 2.4.

– Within minor wave 3 there minute wave iv lasted 35 days while minute wave ii lasted 7 days, a multiple of 5.

So it is not unusual for GDX to not exhibit good proportions. Or my entire wave count is wrong. I do not think GDX has enough volume to exhibit typical looking Elliott Wave structures, and so this does make Elliott wave analysis of this market prone to error and poor probability. I am also learning after analysing this market now for about one year that it does not regularly exhibit close Fibonacci ratios between its waves, and this makes target calculation very much hit and miss (with more miss than hit).

Because of the nature of this market I strongly advise members to always use their own technical analysis tools in conjunction with my Elliott wave analysis of this market. I will also let the wave count for the Gold cash market lead the wave count for GDX.

At 14.15 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). This target is likely to be several weeks away.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th September, 2014

As expected GDX has moved lower. The target for minute wave iii to end was 22.32 and I expected it to be met one to two weeks after last analysis. It looks like it may have ended at 22.02 one and a half weeks after last analysis.

I expect a little sideways movement to end about 22.78, followed by more downwards movement to new lows.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX monthly 2013

The clearest piece of movement is the downwards movement from the high. This looks most like a first, second and third wave. This may be the start of a larger correction.

Intermediate wave (3) is $1.06 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) there are no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $2.19 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $0.63 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave iii.

I have played with how to best draw a channel about this downwards movement, which does not fit perfectly into a channel drawn using either of Elliott’s techniques but does fit best if his first technique is used: draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy on the high of intermediate wave (2).

GDX daily 2013

Intermediate wave (5) must subdivide as a five wave structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. So far the first five down for minor wave 1 is incomplete. If minor wave 1 completes as a five wave impulse then intermediate wave (5) must be unfolding as an impulse, because an ending diagonal requires all the subwaves to be zigzags.

Minute wave iii is 0.30 longer than 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: there is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (iii) and (i), and minuette wave (v) is 0.40 longer than 0.618 the length of minuette wave (iii).

Minute wave ii lasted 21 days and was a deep 93% expanded flat correction of minute wave i. So far it looks like minute wave iv may also be an expanded flat, but it is much more shallow. Because there is no alternation in structure between minute waves ii and iv for this wave count, it is possible that my analysis of the end of minute wave iii and the start of minute wave iv is wrong. Minute wave iii may not be over and may yet move lower.

However, because minute wave iii has a close Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and because within minute wave iii there is a good ratio with perfect alternation and almost perfect proportion between minuette waves (ii) and (iv) so far this wave count looks correct. It may be that minute wave iv continues sideways as a running triangle to provide alternation with the flat of minute wave ii, or it could be more time consuming as a double combination with the first structure a flat.

Overall the structure for minor wave 1 down is incomplete. When this piece of sideways movement is done I would expect the breakout to be downwards.

At 14.15 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). This target is likely to be several weeks away.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th September, 2014

As expected GDX has moved lower. This Elliott wave count looks correct so far. We have some price confirmation with a new low below 25.59.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX monthly 2013

The clearest piece of movement is the downwards movement from the high. This looks most like a first, second and third wave. This may be the start of a larger correction.

Intermediate wave (3) is $1.06 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) there are no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $2.19 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $0.63 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave iii.

I have played with how to best draw a channel about this downwards movement, which does not fit perfectly into a channel drawn using either of Elliott’s techniques but does fit best if his first technique is used: draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy on the high of intermediate wave (2).

GDX daily 2013

Intermediate wave (5) must subdivide as a five wave structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. So far the first five down for minor wave 1 is incomplete. If minor wave 1 completes as a five wave impulse then intermediate wave (5) must be unfolding as an impulse, because an ending diagonal requires all the subwaves to be zigzags.

At 22.32 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minuette wave (i) are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 0.6489 short of 0.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

Ratios within minuette wave (iii) are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves iii and i, and subminuette wave v is 0.13 longer than equality with subminuette wave iii.

I am not sure if minuette wave (iv) is complete or not; if not, minuette wave (iv) could move price further sideways and higher but may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory above 25.75. Minuette wave (ii) lasted four days and was a relatively deep 55% zigzag. Minuette wave (iv) may be a relatively shallow flat, triangle or combination.

Minute wave ii was a very deep expanded flat. When minute wave iv arrives I would expect it to most likely be a very shallow correction of minute wave iii. I also expect minute wave iv may be a very shallow zigzag, triangle or combination; should be a sideways movement; would most likely last up to 21 days; and may be more brief than this if it is a zigzag as they do tend to be briefer structures.

At this stage I would expect the target at 22.32 to be about one or two weeks away.

At 14.15 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). This target is likely to be several weeks away.

*Note: My last calculation for this target was wrong.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th August, 2014

While the Elliott wave monthly chart looks fairly clear at this time, the Elliott wave daily chart is not. With GDX data I cannot look at subdivisions on any time frame below daily.

I have one monthly wave count and three alternate ideas for the daily chart for you this week.

Click charts to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

GDX monthly 2013

The clearest piece of movement is the downwards movement from the high. This looks most like a first, second and third wave. This may be the start of a larger correction.

Intermediate wave (3) is $1.06 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) there are no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $2.19 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $0.63 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave iii.

Draw a parallel channel about this downwards movement. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the high of intermediate wave (2). Intermediate wave (4) found some resistance just above the upper edge of the channel.

Intermediate wave (4) may be over already, or it may continue further sideways or higher for another one to few weeks. Only movement below 21.93 would confirm that intermediate wave (4) is over and intermediate wave (5) is underway.

The three daily wave counts below are in no particular order. I am not confident that I know this market well enough at this stage (I only began analysing GDX in October 2013) to be able to judge how its structures normally look.

Daily Wave Count I.

GDX daily I 2013

I have moved the degree of labelling within minor wave B all up one degree. It looks better for minor wave B to have been over at 21.93 as a zigzag.

At 29.72 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A.

This would see intermediate wave (4) move comfortably outside the parallel channel on the monthly chart, copied over here to the daily chart (black trend line). I do not know how common this is for GDX.

Within minor wave C minute waves iii and v may be shorter than minute wave i.

This wave count would be confirmed with movement above 27.78.

This main wave count sees the upwards wave for minor wave A as a five wave impulse. I think this has a slightly better fit than seeing this movement as a three.

Within minor wave C minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 21.93.

Daily Wave Count II.

GDX daily II 2013

This idea follows on directly from a prior wave count. Intermediate wave (4) may be an incomplete regular contracting triangle.

This would see intermediate wave (4) have better structural alternation with intermediate wave (2) which fits best as a double zigzag.

However, this triangle is not typical looking. The A-C trend line is close to flat; normally, the A-C trend line has a clear slope for a contracting triangle. If one of the triangle trend lines is flat it is the B-D trend line within a barrier triangle. This is not a barrier triangle.

At 24.24 minute wave c within minor wave D would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave a.

Minor wave D may not move beyond the end of minor wave B below 21.93.

Within minor wave D minute wave b may not move beyond the start of minute wave a above 27.78.

Daily Wave Count III.

GDX daily III 2013

Finally, this third wave count is the same as the first wave count except the degree of labelling within minor wave C is moved up one degree. This sees intermediate wave (4) as a complete single zigzag with a slightly (0.25) truncated C wave.

I do not know how common truncations are for GDX, but so far I have seen a few. I suspect that GDX exhibits truncations a little more readily than the Gold cash market does.

This wave count again sees minor wave A as a five wave structure, which has the best fit.

Within intermediate wave (5) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 27.78.

Overall if I had to pick a winner it would be this third wave count because it has the best fit and proportions.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th July, 2014 – Charts Only

I am swapping over my main and alternate wave counts. The new main wave count has a much better fit and makes more sense. Both expect some downwards movement from here.

Charts only tonight. Click charts to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

GDX daily 2013

Alternate Wave Count.

GDX daily 2013

Minute wave c = 1.618 minute wave a at 21.68.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st July, 2014

Last Elliott wave analysis expected to see upwards movement for a C wave within the triangle. Price has moved higher as expected.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX monthly 2013

The clearest piece of movement is the downwards movement from the high. This looks most like a first, second and third wave. This may be the start of a larger correction.

Intermediate wave (3) is $1.06 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) there are no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $2.19 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $0.63 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave iii.

Draw a parallel channel about this downwards movement. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the high of intermediate wave (2). I would expect intermediate wave (4) to find resistance at the upper edge of the channel, and it may end there.

Intermediate wave (4) should last one to a few months.

GDX daily 2013

Minor wave C is still incomplete. At 27.02 minute wave c would reach 0.382 the length of minute wave a.

Minor wave C may not move beyond the end of minor wave A above 28.03 for a contracting or barrier triangle. This invalidation point is black and white.

Now that minute wave b is over I have drawn a parallel channel about this upwards zigzag of minor wave C using Elliott’s technique for a correction: draw the first trend line from the beginning of minute wave a to the end of minute wave b, then place a parallel copy on the end of minute wave a. I will expect minute wave c to end mid way within this channel.

When the pink channel is breached by downwards movement that shall be an indication that minor wave C is over and minor wave D downwards has begun.

Minor wave D may not move beyond the end of minor wave B below 21.93 for a contracting triangle. For a barrier triangle minor wave D may end about the same level as minor wave B, as long as the B-D trend line remains essentially flat. In practice this means minor wave D may move very slightly below 21.93 as this invalidation point is not black and white.

Minor wave E would most likely fall short of the A-C trend line.

The whole triangle for intermediate wave (4) may find resistance, and may end, at the upper edge of the black channel which is here copied over from the monthly chart.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th June, 2014

Last Elliott wave analysis three days ago expected upwards movement for GDX. The target for it to end is 26.18. At the time of writing it is getting very close to this target.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX monthly 2013

The clearest piece of movement is the downwards movement from the high. This looks most like a first, second and third wave. This may be the start of a larger correction.

Intermediate wave (3) is $1.06 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) there are no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $2.19 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $0.63 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave iii.

Draw a parallel channel about this downwards movement. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the high of intermediate wave (2). I would expect intermediate wave (4) to find resistance at the upper edge of the channel, and it may end there.

Intermediate wave (4) should last one to a few months.

GDX daily 2013

I expect that intermediate wave (4) is completing as a regular contracting triangle. Within the triangle all the subwaves must subdivide as corrective structures, one may be a multiple, and four of the five waves must be zigzags or multiple zigzags.

So far minor wave A is a multiple so this means all the remaining subwaves must be simple A-B-C corrections. Minor wave A is technically a double combination so this means all the remaining waves must be simple zigzags.

Minor wave D may not move below the end of minor wave D at 21.93, although if the triangle is a barrier triangle minor wave D may end about the same level as minor wave B as long as the B-D trend line is essentially flat. This invalidation point is not black and white.

Minor wave C may not move beyond the end of minor wave A above 28.03. This invalidation point is black and white.

Overall this wave count now expects to see very choppy overlapping sideways movement for several weeks yet before this correction is over.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th May, 2014

The structure of the daily chart for GDX looks remarkably similar to Gold. This wave count supports the current wave count for Gold.

Click charts to enlarge.

GDX monthly 2013

The clearest piece of movement is the downwards movement from the high. This looks most like a first, second and third wave. This may be the start of a larger correction.

Intermediate wave (3) is $1.06 longer than 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) there are no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $2.19 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is $0.63 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave iii.

Draw a parallel channel about this downwards movement. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the high of intermediate wave (2). I would expect intermediate wave (4) to find resistance at the upper edge of the channel, and it may end there.

Intermediate wave (4) should last one to a few months. It may end about the terminus of the fourth wave of one lesser degree at $31.35.

GDX daily 2013

At this stage I expect intermediate wave (4) is incomplete. I have moved the degree of labeling for the first wave up labeled now minor wave A down one degree; I expect this is just minor wave A and not intermediate wave (4) in its entirety.

I have done this because the most recent movement suggests a contracting triangle is unfolding. If intermediate wave (5) has begun this triangle would be in a second wave position, and that does not make sense.

At this stage I would expect that minuette wave (e) is incomplete and price should move a little higher to end it. Minuette wave (e) may not move beyond the end of minuette wave (c) at 24.67. If price moves above this point then my wave count is wrong, and I would expect some more upwards movement.

The triangle would be confirmed as complete when price moves below 23.04. Minuette wave (d) may not move beyond the end of minuette wave (b), and so at that stage downwards movement could not be a continuation of minuette wave (d) and the triangle would have to be over.

If intermediate wave (4) is unfolding as a flat correction then within it minor wave B downwards must reach a minimum 90% length of minor wave A at 21.145.

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th January, 2014

The data for this market has many gaps, and the structures are not entirely typical looking Elliott wave structures. Although there are some Fibonacci ratios, they are not as prevalent as ratios within Gold. I am only able to import daily data, and I cannot check subdivisions on lower time frames.

While I expect my analysis of GDX will be useful to you, please note that it may not have as good an accuracy rate as what I can achieve for Gold.

Overall the structures and the wave count will be quite different from Gold. Although it looks these two markets have major turns together, the subdivisions within each are quite different.

Continue reading GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th January, 2014