Tag Archives: silver

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Elliott Wave Gold will be closed for two weeks during the Christmas and New Year holiday.

Holiday dates are from Monday 21st December to Friday 1st January.

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First analysis of the new year will be done after market close for Monday, 4th January, 2016, and will include a video update.

During the two week holiday, markets will be closed for two and a half days and there will be seven and a half days when markets will be open but which will not be analysed.

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SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th October, 2014

Downwards movement continued a little lower for a fifth wave. I expect now that minor wave 1 is over and minor wave 2 has just begun four days ago.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Silver weekly 2014

Downwards movement subdivides so far as an incomplete double zigzag. This cannot be an impulse if the movement which I have labeled primary wave X is correct as a triangle because a triangle may not be the sole structure in a second wave position.

The first zigzag in the double is labeled primary wave W. The double is joined by a “three”, a triangle, in the opposite direction labeled primary wave X.

The second zigzag for primary wave Y is moving price lower to deepen the correction, and so this structure has a typical double zigzag look in that it has a clear slope against the main trend.

Within primary wave Y the triangle for intermediate wave (B) is now a complete barrier triangle. Movements following triangles, and particularly barrier triangles, have a tendency to be relatively short and brief (more common), or sometimes they are a very long extension. The higher target has a higher probability for this reason.

Within primary wave Y at 11.52 intermediate wave (C) would reach 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 5.309 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

Within primary wave Y intermediate wave (A) lasted 30 weeks and intermediate wave (B) lasted exactly a Fibonacci 54 weeks. I would expect intermediate wave (C) to end in a total 21 or 34 weeks. So far it has lasted 13 weeks and may yet continue towards the target for a further 8 or 21 weeks, if it exhibits a Fibonacci duration. However, please note, Silver does not reliably exhibit Fibonacci durations nor do its waves reliably exhibit Fibonacci ratios to each other in terms of duration.

Silver daily 2014

Minor wave 1 is now a complete structure.

Ratios within minor wave 1 are: minute wave iii is 0.180 longer than 4.236 the length of minute wave i, and minute wave v is 0.034 longer than 0.146 the length of minute wave iii.

Minor wave 2 is most likely to be a deep zigzag ending about 19.382. If should last a few weeks. Minor wave 1 lasted 12 weeks, just one short of a Fibonacci 13. I will look for minor wave 2 to last either a Fibonacci 5 or 8 weeks. This is a rough guideline only because Silver does not often exhibit Fibonacci durations.

There are several structural possibilities for minor wave 2. The only corrective structure it may not be in its entirety is a triangle. Some possible structures, such as an expanded flat or combination, may include a new low below its start. There should be no lower invalidation point for this reason.

Once minute wave a within minor wave 2 is complete I may have some idea which structure may be unfolding, if it is either a clear three or five. If it is ambiguous both possibilities will have to be considered.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th September, 2013

Last analysis expected upwards movement, but required a trend channel breach of the channel on the hourly chart before confidence could be had in a trend change. We have the breach now and a trend change confirmed, but price moved lower first.

This is exactly why I use trend channels; they are an integral part of Elliott wave analysis.

The wave count is mostly the same. A target can now be calculated for upwards movement to end.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

A downwards zigzag is unfolding at primary wave degree. Within the zigzag intermediate wave (A) is complete. Intermediate wave (B) is an incomplete zigzag.

Within minor wave B the structure may be an almost complete zigzag, or this may only be minute wave a of a flat or double for minor wave B.

A parallel channel drawn about minor wave B is now clearly breached by upwards movement on the hourly chart, with an overshoot here on the daily chart. This channel breach indicates that minor wave B is over and now minor wave C is underway.

At 28.121 minor wave C would reach equality with minor wave A.

Within minor wave C no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 21.216.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within minor wave B minute wave c is just 0.11 short of 1.618 the length of minute wave a.

Within minor wave C minute wave i is probably complete. Minute wave ii may be complete or it may continue further as a flat correction. If it moves lower then the target for minute wave iii must move correspondingly lower also.

At 26.09 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 21.216.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th September, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected some downwards movement towards a short term target at 22.463 to 22.481 before a trend change and upwards movement.

Price did move a little lower, but not as low as expected, falling 0.239 short of the target. We do not have confirmation of the trend change yet.

When the parallel channel on the hourly chart is breached by upwards movement then I shall have more confidence that the upwards trend has resumed.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

A downwards zigzag is unfolding at primary wave degree. Within the zigzag intermediate wave (A) is complete. Intermediate wave (B) is an incomplete zigzag.

Within minor wave B the structure may be an almost complete zigzag, or this may only be minute wave a of a flat or double for minor wave B.

Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 18.215.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within minor wave B the structure may be seen as complete. There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves a and b of this zigzag.

Ratios within minute wave c are: minuette wave (iii) is 0.043 longer than equality with minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 0.011 short of 0.236 the length of minuette wave (i).

Use Elliott’s technique to draw a parallel channel about minor wave B. Draw the first trend line from the start of minute wave a to the end of minute wave b, then place a parallel copy upon the end of minute wave a. When this channel is clearly breached by upwards movement then we shall have confirmation that the upwards trend has resumed.

At 27.039 minor wave C would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave A. Upwards movement may find resistance at the upper edge of the blue channel drawn about intermediate wave (B) on the daily chart.

While price remains well within the channel on the hourly chart we must accept the possibility that minor wave B may continue lower, but it may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 18.215.

Silver Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th September, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected a little more upwards movement from Silver before a minor wave B downwards began. We did not see upwards movement; price just moved lower in what is so far a clear three wave structure.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Silver weekly 2013

Within the first zigzag in the double, primary wave W, intermediate wave (C) is just 0.67 longer than intermediate wave (A).

Primary wave X is a completed regular contracting triangle.

Primary wave Y is incomplete.

Silver daily 2013

Within primary wave Y intermediate wave (A) is complete. Intermediate wave (B) is an incomplete zigzag.

Ratios within minor wave A are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is 0.06 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave iii.

Within minor wave B the structure may be an almost complete zigzag, or this may only be minute wave a of a flat or double for minor wave B.

Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 18.215.

Silver hourly 2013

Within minor wave B minute wave a is a completed five wave impulse, minute wave b is a completed zigzag, and minute wave c is an incomplete impulse.

There are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minuette waves (i), (iii) and (v) within minute wave a.

Within minute wave b minuette wave (c) is just 0.005 longer than 0.382 the length of minuette wave (a).

Within minute wave c minuette wave (iii) is 0.081 longer than 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i). We may not see a Fibonacci ratio between minuette wave (v) and either of (iii) or (i). The target is best calculated one degree higher.

At 22.463 minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a. This is close to 22.481 where minor wave B would reach the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave a. This gives us a 0.018 target zone for a little more downwards movement.

Within minute wave c minuette wave (v) may be unfolding as an ending expanding diagonal. Within it subminuette wave iv may yet move a little higher, but may not move beyond the end of subminuette wave ii at 23.652.

When minor wave B is complete we may calculate a target upwards for minor wave C. It is most likely to reach equality with minor wave A at 25.120 in length.

Silver Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th August, 2013

Last analysis of silver was published on 5th May, 2013. It’s time to update this analysis. I will endeavor to update Silver for you once a week, time permitting.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Silver monthly 2013

At the monthly chart level the long rise for silver to the all time high at 49.51 looks like a completed five wave impulse. Because this lasted generations it may be a grand super cycle wave.

No matter what degree downwards movement is labeled, it is a correction and it is incomplete.

The current corrective structure is unfolding as a double zigzag. Primary wave W is a zigzag, and the double is joined by a correction in the opposite direction, a triangle labeled primary wave X. The second structure in the double has begun with a completed five wave structure downwards, and it is also unfolding as a zigzag. This corrective structure at cycle degree is a double zigzag.

The second zigzag of primary wave Y is incomplete.

Silver weekly 2013

Within the first zigzag in the double, primary wave W, intermediate wave (C) is just 0.67 longer than intermediate wave (A).

Primary wave X is a completed regular contracting triangle.

Primary wave Y is incomplete.

Silver daily 2013

Within primary wave Y downwards movement for intermediate wave (A) subdivides nicely into a five wave impulse.

Ratios within intermediate wave (A) are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves 3 and 1, and minor wave 3 is just 0.01 short of 0.382 the length of minor wave 3.

Within intermediate wave (B) so far the structure may be unfolding as a zigzag. Minor wave A is an incomplete five wave impulse.

Upwards movement for minute wave iii within minor wave A is showing a strong increase in upwards momentum, indicating a third wave which indicates an impulse for minor wave A.

At 25.44 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

When minute wave iii is complete then minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 20.613.

If price moves below 20.613 then minor wave A subdivided into a three wave zigzag. At that stage we should expect minor wave B to reach down to at least 90% the length of minor wave A, and to be very likely to make a new low below the start of minor wave A at 18.215. Intermediate wave (B) then may unfold as a flat or combination.