Yesterday’s main wave count expected downwards movement which is what has happened. The alternate wave count probability has been further reduced.
Click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Wave Count.
Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete. To see a full explanation of my reasoning for expecting that primary wave 4 is not over and is continuing see this.
Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat correction, and was a deep 68% correction of primary wave 1. In order to show alternation in structure primary wave 4 may be a zigzag, double zigzag, combination, triangle or even an expanded or regular flat. We can rule out a zigzag because the first wave subdivides as a three. This still leaves several structural possibilities.
If primary wave 4 is a combination, expanded flat or running triangle then we may see a new low below 1,180.40 within it. This is why there is no lower invalidation point for intermediate wave (X).
If price reaches 1,205.74 then downwards movement labeled intermediate wave (X) would be 90% of upwards movement labeled intermediate wave (W). I would relabel primary wave 4 as an A-B-C flat correction. If price does not reach 1,205.74 then primary wave 4 is most likely a double combination.
Minor wave C must subdivide either as an ending diagonal or an impulse. It is clearly not an ending diagonal so it can only be an impulse. This impulsive structure is now almost complete; the final fifth wave downwards just needs to finish.
There was no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves iii and i within minor wave C. This makes it more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio exhibited between minute wave v and either of i or iii. At 1,159 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave iii. This lower target allows enough room for minute wave v to complete.
Draw a parallel channel about minor wave C downwards with the first trend line from the highs labeled minute waves ii to iv, then place a parallel copy upon the low labeled minute wave iii. If it gets that low downwards movement should find support at the lower edge of this channel.
I would expect downwards movement to also find support at the lower edge of the parallel channel drawn here about intermediate wave (X).
Draw a parallel channel about the zigzag of intermediate wave (X): draw the first trend line from the start of minor wave A to the end of minor wave B, then place a parallel copy upon the end of minor wave A. When this channel is finally breached by upwards movement then I would consider that final confirmation that intermediate wave (Y) is underway.
Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.
Main Hourly Wave Count.
So far there is not a clear five down on the hourly chart. When there is then I would have further confidence in this wave count.
Movement below 1,220.65 would invalidate the alternate hourly wave count and confirm this main wave count. At that stage I would have full confidence that Gold is still within a downwards trend which may continue for about another two weeks.
Within minuette wave (iii) subminuette wave i is probably incomplete. Within subminuette wave i at 1,216 micro wave 3 would reach 2.618 the length of micro wave 1. This short term target should be reached within the next few hours.
Thereafter, subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,252.12.
At 1,175 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). This target may be about six days away.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count.
If we simply move the degree of labeling within the last wave down all up one degree then there may have been an intermediate degree trend change at 1,220.65, but if this is the case minute wave v would be truncated. This truncation reduces the probability of this wave count.
A leading diagonal may be unfolding for minute wave a upwards. This is entirely possible, but it has a lower probability than a simple impulse in an A wave position, and so this alternate wave count has reduced a little further in probability.
Within a leading diagonal subwaves 1, 3 and 5 are most commonly zigzags but they may also be impulses. That is why minuette wave (i) upwards is labeled as a zigzag.
Within the diagonal minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,220.65.
This alternate wave count requires confirmation with movement above 1,267.98 before I would have confidence in it.
Alternate Daily Wave Count – Triangle.
It is also possible that primary wave 4 may continue as a regular contracting (or barrier) triangle.
The expected direction and structure of this next upwards wave is the same, but for this alternate intermediate wave (C) of the triangle may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (A). The triangle is invalidated with movement above 1,438.83.
The final intermediate wave (E) upwards may not move above the end of intermediate wave (C) for both a contracting and barrier triangle. E waves most commonly end short of the A-C trend line.
All five subwaves of a triangle must divide into corrective structures. If this next upwards movement subdivides as a zigzag which does not make a new high above 1,438.83 then this alternate would be correct.
Triangles take up time and move price sideways. If primary wave 4 unfolds as a triangle then I would expect it to last months rather than weeks.
Lara, please could you give the daily count for the alternate in the next analysis (if it is still relevant).
Lara, I am new to your analysis. Per your main wave count diagram 1, do you imply if we get a low in December that we may be able to see Gold climbing up to pass 1350 mark in Jan 2014 (ie the yellow arrow)? Thank you for clarifying as I am an amateur to wave analysis.
As per my answer to Gary below.
Lara: I am new to your report presentation. Want to clarify is that what you think in your main wave count chart above that it is likely to see Gold passing 1,350 in January 2014?
It may not happen in January, but yes. Once the downwards structure is complete Gold should turn back up for a multi week / month new upwards trend.
The end to the downwards trend is yet about two weeks away.
My only concern is it doesn’t appear to have a third of a third wave look as we’re almost trading back to $1235 USD and not towards $1216.
Would you start to favor the alternate count if we do not see downwards momentum increase in the next 12 hrs say by 6:00am EST?
If you’re referring to the current wave down on the hourly chart, it is not a third of a third wave. It is the start of a third wave within a fifth wave.
And no, only if price moves above 1,267.98 would I favour the alternate wave count.