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A small upwards day has made a slight new high.

Both Elliott wave counts remain the same.

Summary: The bottom line is still that it must be accepted there is no indication yet of an end to this upwards wave while Gold remains within the channel and above the confidence point of 1,198.79. Targets are now 1,234 or 1,288. If price breaks below the lower edge of the gold channel, then a target for a deep correction would be at or below 1,160.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This main wave count has a better fit for prior movement. To see the difference between this main wave count and the alternate below please refer to last historic analysis linked to above.

This main wave count expects Gold has had a primary degree trend change in December 2016. The new upwards wave is either a primary degree third wave, or a primary degree zigzag to complete a double zigzag.

Intermediate wave (1) has so far lasted 29 days. If it continues for another 5, it may complete in a total Fibonacci 34. This would see intermediate wave (1) end on the 30th of January.

So far price remains within the gold channel. A breach of the gold channel on the daily chart would provide strong indication of a trend change.

While price remains within the gold channel, then it must be accepted that it is likely to continue higher. A breach of the gold channel would indicate intermediate wave (1) is over and intermediate wave (2) has arrived.

The first in a series of second wave corrections for Gold’s new impulses is usually very deep. Intermediate wave (2) is expected to be at least 0.618 the depth of intermediate wave (1), and very likely may be deeper. It may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,123.08.

Intermediate wave (2) may be at least as long in duration as intermediate wave (1), and fairly likely it may be longer. Corrections are often more time consuming than impulses.

Gold often exhibits swift strong fifth waves, but this does not have to happen for minor wave 5. But it is a common tendency, so traders should look out for it.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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To see detail of all of intermediate wave (1) so far on the hourly chart click here.

Each time price comes close to the lower edge of the channel it presents another opportunity to join the trend.

If price comes back down to the lower trend line and moves quickly through it, then the probability of this main hourly wave count would substantially reduce. At that stage, consider the alternate below.

Minor wave 1 was short. Minor wave 3 was extended. It is very common for Gold to exhibit swift strong and extended fifth waves, so that is what the targets will expect.

A first wave up within minor wave 5 may be complete. At this stage, it will be labelled at minute degree but this may change because it may be needed to be moved down one degree. This movement fits as a leading expanding diagonal followed by a very deep correction.

The first wave up of minuette wave (i), within minute wave iii, now looks complete. Minuette wave (ii) may be complete here, or it may continue further as a flat, double zigzag or double combination. If it continues further, minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) below 1,198.79.

Along the way up, corrections for this wave count should find support at the lower edge of the channel.

If minor wave 5 is a swift strong movement, then price may break above the upper edge of the channel.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

A new wave at intermediate degree should begin with a clear five down on the hourly chart. This has not happened.

At this stage, I have not been able to see a solution on the five minute chart which sees the downwards wave labelled minute wave a as a five wave structure. It will fit well as a completed zigzag.

The lack of a five down reduces the probability of this wave count. This wave count is published in the spirit of always considering possibilities, even those which are unlikely.

What if intermediate wave (1) is over? What if intermediate wave (2) has begun?

If the first small movement down is a three and not a five, then minor wave A may be unfolding as a flat correction. This would indicate intermediate wave (2) may be unfolding as a flat correction, with minor wave A within it also a flat correction.

Within the possible flat correction of minor wave A, the upwards wave of minute wave b has now retraced a minimum 0.9 length of minute wave a at 1,216.17. The normal range for minute wave b within a flat correction is from 1 to 1.38 the length of minute wave a, giving a range from 1,218.43 to 1,227.02.

Minute wave b may make a new price extreme above the end of minute wave a at 1,218.43. There is no upper invalidation point for this wave count.

There is no Elliott wave rule stating a maximum length for B waves within flats (or X waves within combinations). There is a convention within Elliott wave which states when the potential B wave is longer than twice the length of the A wave the idea of a flat (and combination) should be discarded based upon a very low probability. This wave count would be discarded above 1,241.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
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This alternate wave count expects that Gold is still within a bear market. Targets for new lows can be seen on weekly and monthly charts.

Within the bear market, a primary degree correction is underway.

Primary wave 2 is most likely to subdivide as a zigzag. So far it looks like a five up is either complete now or very close to completion. This may be intermediate wave (A).

Intermediate wave (B) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A) below 1,123.08.

Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 above 1,374.81.



Gold Weekly 2017
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The first three weeks of upwards movement came with a steady increase in volume to support the rise in price, but last week saw a decline in volume. This indicates some weakness for last week.

The long upper wick and small real body of the last weekly candlestick is slightly bearish. This is not a reversal signal at all but only a warning of internal weakness. This upwards trend will either end or see a correction at the weekly chart level; trend changes are often preceded by signs of weakness.

Price may find some resistance about 1,225.

On Balance Volume gave a weak bullish signal last week. The signal is weak because this line has been broken before. The purple resistance line offers stronger technical significance.

At the weekly chart level, RSI is increasing along with price.

ADX is still declining, indicating the market is not yet trending (but this is a lagging indicator). ADX has not yet indicated a trend change from down to up; the -DX line remains above the +DX line.


Gold Daily 2016
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Price remains within the parallel channel and continues higher. Only when the lower edge of the channel is clearly breached should a trend change be expected. Until that happens assume that the upward trend continues.

A slight new high today comes with a small decline in volume. The rise in price is not supported by volume, so it should be suspicious. This supports the alternate hourly Elliott wave count.

On Balance Volume may provide resistance and halt the rise in price here. This supports the alternate hourly Elliott wave count.

There is slight weak bearish divergence today with a slight new high for price that is not matched by a new high for RSI. This supports the alternate hourly Elliott wave count.

ADX is still increasing, indicating there is an upwards trend. The trend is in extreme territory as the black ADX line is above both directional lines. But ADX is not yet above 35, so there is room for this trend to continue.

ATR continues to be flat as price moves higher. This is normal for Gold, for both a larger correction within a trend or for the first wave within a new trend. It is impossible to tell which scenario is correct for Gold from ATR.

Stochastics now exhibits double bearish divergence with price and is overbought. This also support the alternate hourly Elliott wave count.

Bollinger Bands are now contracting; this trend now has declining volatility. This may also be interpreted as support for the alternate hourly Elliott wave count.


GDX Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Last analysis for GDX was more bearish than bullish, yet price today has made a new high. Despite strongest volume days within the last ten day consolidation being downwards, an upwards breakout today was seen.

Price closed above the prior upper range of the consolidation on a day with an increase in volume. This looks like a small upwards breakout.

ADX is today increasing and the +DX line is above the -DX line, so an upwards trend is indicated. The trend is not extreme: the ADX line is below the +DX line and below 35.

ATR is declining after a period of consolidation.

On Balance Volume moved higher today and found resistance at the yellow line, which previously offered support. This may serve to halt the rise in price here.

RSI is not yet overbought. There is room for price to rise further.

Stochastics is overbought and exhibits multiple divergence with price. This is bearish, but it cannot signal when a high is found.

Bollinger Bands reached extreme and are now contracting. This is also bearish.

A blue support line is drawn on price. The bottom line for GDX is that while price remains above this line expect it to continue upwards. If that line is breached by a full daily candlestick below and not touching the line, then it would indicate a trend change and the start of a deep pullback for GDX.

Overall, this GDX analysis today is neutral.

This analysis is published @ 07:28 p.m. EST.