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Upwards movement for the main Elliott wave hourly chart was expected to reach a target at 1,240.

Price moved higher as expected to reach 1,241.99.

Summary: The target for a deep pullback is at 1,148. Corrections along the way down present opportunities to join the trend. A very deep second wave correction may have ended today. This is more likely than the alternate scenario, which today sees Gold in a third wave up at two degrees.

One approach to managing the main and alternate wave counts today may be to assume the main wave count is correct, so to assume a short position with a stop just above the invalidation point at 1,244.89. If this price point is breached, assume the alternate is correct and be prepared to quickly switch from bull to bear.

Follow my two Golden Rules of risk management:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Invest no more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

There is an alternate wave count that differs at the weekly and monthly chart level. At the daily chart level, the alternate also expects overall more upwards movement, but it will not be published daily while it does not diverge from this main wave count. See historic analysis linked to above.

This main wave count expects Gold has had a primary degree trend change in December 2016. The new upwards wave is either a primary degree third wave, or a primary degree zigzag to complete a double zigzag.

Intermediate wave (1) is an impulse that may have lasted 23 days, two longer than a Fibonacci 21. Intermediate wave (2) may be unfolding as a very common expanded flat correction.

Within intermediate wave (2), minor wave A fits best as a regular flat and minor wave B is a zigzag. Minor wave B is longer than the common length of 1 to 1.38 times A, but within the allowable convention of up to two times the length of A.

The appropriate target for minor wave C is 2.618 the length of minor wave A.

So far intermediate wave (2) has lasted 22 sessions. Minor waves A and B have lasted a Fibonacci eight sessions each. If intermediate wave (2) exhibits a Fibonacci duration, it may be a total 34 sessions.

Alternatively, intermediate wave (2) may not exhibit a Fibonacci duration.

The alternate daily and hourly charts below will look at the possibility that intermediate wave (2) is not continuing, that it may have been over already.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Minute wave ii should now be a complete expanded flat correction.

In a new wave, Gold often exhibits a very deep second wave correction for the very first in a series. Minute wave ii here is 0.90 the depth of minute wave i and this is fairly common for an early second wave correction.

The invalidation point is now very close by. If minute wave ii continues any higher, it may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 1,244.89. If this wave count is invalidated within the next 24 hours, then members would be advised to be flexible and switch over immediately to using the alternate. The alternate would be considered confirmed.

At its end, minuette wave (c) now exhibits a typical Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (a). Expanded flats and deep second waves are common scenarios.

A support line is drawn about minuette wave (c) in green. This is now breached. This breach may be the earliest indication that minute wave ii is over.

Price may now find resistance at the cyan trend line along the way down.

The prior upwards wave labelled minor wave B can be seen as a zigzag for this main wave count. The subdivision has a much better fit for this idea increasing the probability of this main wave count over the alternate below. To see the subdivision within minor wave B see analysis from the 9th of February.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This alternate wave count today is an alternate idea to the main wave count. What if intermediate wave (2) was over as a brief shallow regular flat correction? It would have lasted just 8 days compared to intermediate wave (1) at 23 days. It would have been only 0.388 the depth of intermediate wave (1) and this is more shallow than normal for an intermediate degree second wave.

The black channel is a base channel about intermediate waves (1) and (2). Along the way up, lower degree second wave corrections should find support at the lower edge of the base channel. For this reason minor wave 2 looks most likely to be over now.

Within minor wave 3, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 1,217.05.

Minor wave 2 would have lasted a Fibonacci five sessions compared to minor wave 1 at a Fibonacci eight sessions. This proportion looks right.

This alternate wave count expects that the last two days of upwards movement has been the first two days of minor wave 3 within intermediate wave (3).


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave 2 will subdivide as a three wave zigzag with a running contracting triangle for minute wave b.

Within the triangle, the final wave of minuette wave (e) falls well short of the (a)-(c) trend line and this does not look right. However, all Elliott wave rules are met.

Minute wave ii should now be a more shallow correction as the power of a big third wave winds up. For this reason the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio would be favoured, but the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio is still possible as a target.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 1,217.05.

Within minor wave 1 upwards, the structure must be seen as as five wave impulse. This can fit but requires a very rare running flat with a substantially truncated C wave. To see the subdivisions as an impulse for minor wave 1 see hourly charts in analysis for the 9th of February.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The long upper wick and smaller real body on last week’s candlestick is slightly bearish. The decline in volume is also bearish.

The strongest weekly volume in recent weeks is a downwards week, and this too is bearish.

On Balance Volume is some distance away from resistance.

ADX continues to decline indicating no clear trend.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Yesterday saw a balance of volume during the session upwards and a decline in volume from the prior downwards session. Yesterday, there was no support from volume for upwards movement and today another upwards day sees a further decline in volume. This supports the main Elliott wave count and does not support the alternate Elliott wave count.

On Balance Volume is still bearish.

ADX is still extreme.

Price is now range bound with resistance about 1,245 and support about 1,215 to 1,210. During this period, it is the downwards day of the 9th of February that has strongest volume suggesting a downwards breakout may be more likely than upwards.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

On Balance Volume still provides resistance, and a back test may still be unfolding here.

Price is range bound with resistance about 25.70 to 26.00 and support about 24.50. During this small range, it is the downwards day of the 9th of February that has strongest volume suggesting a downwards breakout may be more likely.

A small range upwards day today shows an increase in volume. This is bullish for GDX short term. Look for possibly a continuation of an upwards swing to resistance.

Overall, this chart remains more bearish than bullish.

This analysis is published @ 07:57 p.m. EST.