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Gold is still range bound.

Classic analysis, with a heavy reliance on volume analysis, is used to determine probability of the main versus alternate Elliott wave counts today.

Summary: Gold has now been range bound for nine sessions. Resistance is at 1,245 and support is at 1,220. A downwards breakout still looks more likely than upwards. If price breaks below 1,217.05, the target is at 1,148. If price breaks above 1,244.49, the target is at 1,452.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

There is an alternate wave count that differs at the weekly and monthly chart level. At the daily chart level, the alternate also expects overall more upwards movement, but it will not be published daily while it does not diverge from this main wave count. See historic analysis linked to above.

This main wave count expects Gold has had a primary degree trend change in December 2016. The new upwards wave is either a primary degree third wave, or a primary degree zigzag to complete a double zigzag.

Intermediate wave (1) is an impulse that lasted 23 days, two longer than a Fibonacci 21. Intermediate wave (2) may be unfolding as a very common expanded flat correction.

Within intermediate wave (2), minor wave A fits best as a regular flat and minor wave B is a zigzag. Minor wave B is longer than the common length of 1 to 1.38 times A, but within the allowable convention of up to two times the length of A.

The appropriate target for minor wave C is 2.618 the length of minor wave A.

So far intermediate wave (2) has lasted 25 sessions. Minor waves A and B have lasted a Fibonacci eight sessions each. If intermediate wave (2) exhibits a Fibonacci duration, it may be a total 34 sessions.

Alternatively, intermediate wave (2) may not exhibit a Fibonacci duration.

The alternate daily and hourly charts below will look at the possibility that intermediate wave (2) is not continuing, that it may have been over already.

The longer term targets for primary waves 3 or Y may be met in a total Fibonacci 34 weeks from their start. So far this upwards trend has lasted nine weeks.

It is my judgement today that this main wave count is about 65% likely.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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The last downwards wave now fits well and looks like a three, not a five. If minute wave ii was already over as an expanded flat as labelled in prior analysis, then this makes no sense.

However, it does make sense if minute wave ii is continuing sideways as a double combination: expanded flat – X – zigzag.

The zigzag of minuette wave (y) would most likely end close to the same level as minuette wave (w) at 1,243.49. The purpose of combinations is to take up time and move price sideways and to achieve this purpose the second structure normally ends close to the same point as the first.

This wave count expects that the last six sessions are part of a correction. This does have a slightly better fit with classic analysis below. If price is in a correction, then ADX and ATR agree.

When minute wave ii is complete, then this main wave count expects that a third wave down should begin. That has not happened yet. Minute wave iii must move beyond the end of minute wave i below 1,219.88.

A new low now below 1,217.05 would invalidate the alternate below at the hourly chart level and provide some confidence in this main wave count.

If this main wave count is invalidated with a new high above 1,244.49, then the alternate wave count below should be used.

The prior upwards wave labelled minor wave B can be seen as a zigzag for this main wave count. The subdivision has a much better fit for this idea increasing the probability of this main wave count over the alternate below. To see the subdivision within minor wave B see analysis from the 9th of February.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This alternate wave count is an alternate idea to the main wave count. What if intermediate wave (2) was over as a brief shallow regular flat correction? It would have lasted just 8 days compared to intermediate wave (1) at 23 days. It would have been only 0.388 the depth of intermediate wave (1) and this is more shallow than normal for an intermediate degree second wave.

The black channel is a base channel about intermediate waves (1) and (2). Along the way up, lower degree second wave corrections should find support at the lower edge of the base channel. For this reason minor wave 2 looks most likely to be over now.

Within minor wave 3, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 1,217.05.

Minor wave 2 would have lasted a Fibonacci five sessions compared to minor wave 1 at a Fibonacci eight sessions. This proportion looks right.

This alternate wave count now expects that the last four sessions have been the start of a third wave up at two degrees. Now a third wave up should begin here at three degrees. Price behaviour at this stage does not support this wave count. It could be redeemed if a classic upwards breakout occurs such as a strong upwards day to close above resistance at 1,245 on high volume.

The long lower wicks on four of the recent sessions does look bullish. There is some support for this wave count.

It is my judgement today that this wave count has about a 35% probability.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Minute wave ii now fits perfectly as a zigzag, ending almost right on the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i. This structure favours the alternate wave count today and is the reason for my judgement that it has today improved in probability.

A third wave up now at four degrees should begin. If this wave count is correct, then the next session should see a strong upwards breakout.

If this wave count is confirmed with a new high above 1,244.89, then it would be the only wave count. At that stage, expect price to keep rising and corrections to become more brief and shallow, and Gold to trend strongly.

If this wave count is confirmed, then members would be advised to be flexible, to switch quickly from bear to bull and trade accordingly.

Please always remember my two Golden Rules for traders:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Never invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

Within minor wave 1 upwards (now seen only on the daily chart), the structure must be seen as as five wave impulse. This can fit but requires a very rare running flat with a substantially truncated C wave. To see the subdivisions as an impulse for minor wave 1 see hourly charts in analysis for the 9th of February.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Price for last week made a lower high and lower low, the definition of downwards movement. However, the candlestick closed green and the balance of volume during the week was upwards. A decline in volume for upwards movement during the week is bearish. The long lower wick and green colour of the candlestick is bullish.

Resistance for On Balance Volume is some distance away as is support. The last break above resistance at the yellow line and backtest of support is bullish.

RSI is close to neutral. There is plenty of room for price to rise or fall here.

ADX is still declining after reaching extreme during the last upwards trend. The +DX and -DX lines have now crossed. If ADX turns up here, then an upwards trend would be indicated.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

This last session made a lower low and lower high, the definition of downwards movement, but it closed green. The balance of volume was downwards and it shows an increase. This is bearish.

The long lower wicks on five of the last several candlesticks within this consolidation are bullish.

On Balance Volume is right at support. If tomorrow moves it lower, then it would break below support and offer a bearish signal.

ADX today is declining, indicating the market is not trending. It is range bound now with resistance about 1,245 and support about 1,220. During this consolidation, it is now two downwards days that have strongest volume suggesting a downwards breakout is more likely than upwards.

This analysis is more bearish than bullish, but not overly so. There is enough support for the alternate Elliott wave count for traders to remain cautious. Be prepared to be flexible and switch from bear to bull if price breaks out upwards.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

It looks increasingly like GDX has entered a consolidation. Resistance is about 25.70 and support is about 24.50. During the consolidation, so far it is the downwards day of the 9th of February that has strongest volume suggesting a downwards breakout may be more likely than upwards.

On Balance Volume offers another bearish signal for Friday. This supports a downwards breakout. Give this signal reasonable weight; it is often (not always) reliable.

This analysis is published @ 06:30 p.m. EST.