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A weak upwards day exactly fits the expectation from last analysis.

Summary: The correction is still most likely incomplete. It may continue further for yet another one to few days. Thereafter, the upwards trend should resume. The target for long positions remains at this stage at 1,333. If this is wrong, it may not be high enough.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This chart steps back to see all movement since the important low on the 3rd of December, 2015.

To see how this fits into the bigger picture, please see the last historic analysis linked to at the start of this analysis.

The first upwards movement labelled primary wave 1 fits well as a five wave impulse. Primary wave 2 fits as a zigzag. It would be difficult to see the downwards wave of primary wave 2 as an impulse because that would require ignoring what looks very much like a triangle at its start (labelled intermediate wave (B) ). To see this as an impulse that movement would need to be a second wave correction, but second waves do not subdivide as triangles.

Primary wave 3 should have begun. Within it intermediate waves (1) and (2) should be complete. Intermediate wave (2) is a very common expanded flat correction.

My only concern at this stage is the labelling of minute wave iii as complete. It is possible that the middle portion of this third wave at three degrees has passed, if the next waves up for minute wave v and minor wave 5 are both very long and strong extensions.

It may also be possible that the middle of the big third wave has not passed and the degree of labelling within minor wave 3 needs to be moved down one degree. If minute wave ii is yet to unfold, it may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 1,240.24.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This daily chart will suffice for both weekly charts, which can be seen in the last published historic analysis.

Upwards movement at primary degree is either a third wave (first weekly chart) to unfold as an impulse, or a Y wave (second weekly chart) to unfold as a zigzag. If upwards movement is a zigzag for primary wave Y, then it would be labelled intermediate waves (A) – (B) and now (C) to unfold. It is most likely a third wave because cycle wave a is most likely to subdivide as an impulse.

Intermediate wave (1) or (A) is a complete five wave impulse lasting 39 days. Intermediate wave (2) or (B) looks like an expanded flat, which is a very common structure.

So far, within intermediate wave (3) or (C), minor waves 1 and 2 are now complete. Minor wave 3 looks to have begun. Within minor wave 3, the middle portion for minute wave iii may now be complete. Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory below 1,261.00.

Minute wave v is expected to be very strong, possibly ending with a blow off top.

A cyan trend line is added to all charts. Draw it from the high in October 2012 to the high in July 2016. This line has been tested five times. Price is finding resistance at the cyan trend line now. If price can break through resistance here after some consolidation, then that may release energy to the upside for the end of minor wave 3.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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Minute wave ii was a deep 0.79 double zigzag, which lasted 25 hours, and on the daily chart it shows as only one session.

Given the guideline of alternation, minute wave iv may be expected to most likely be a flat, combination or triangle. All of these structures may include a new high above its start at 1,294.96 as part of the correction. A new high does not indicate minute wave iv is over.

Combinations, flats and triangles are all usually more longer lasting structures than zigzags.

At this stage, a flat correction for minute wave iv may be ruled out because there is no upwards wave within it that has retraced a minimum 0.9 length of any downwards wave within it. The minimum length for minuette wave (b) within a flat correction for minute wave iv has not been met.

A triangle does not look likely at this stage. Often MACD hovers about the zero line while a triangle unfolds. If it starts to do that and price just meanders sideways, then a triangle would be indicated and published again.

A combination looks most likely at this stage.

If minute wave iv is a combination, then the first structure within it labelled minuette wave (w) may be a complete zigzag.

The two structures in the double may be joined by a complete three in the opposite direction labelled minuette wave (x), which subdivides as an expanded flat correction.

Minuette wave (y) may have begun. It may be either a flat or a triangle.

At this stage, minuette wave (y) looks like it may be continuing further as a flat correction. Within the flat correction, subminuette wave b must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of subminuette wave a. Subminuette wave c would then be very likely to end at least slightly below the end of subminuette wave a at 1,276.96 to avoid a truncation and a very rare running flat.

If minuette wave (y) is a flat correction, then at its end it will have to break below the parallel copy of the best fit channel, copied over from the daily chart. Fourth waves are not always neatly contained within channels.

It is also possible that minuette wave (y) may yet unfold sideways as a triangle and remain all or almost all within the best fit channel.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory below 1,261.00.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

What if minute wave iv is over, finding support close to the lower edge of the best fit channel?

This is only possible if it is seen as a complete double zigzag. Minute wave ii fits as a double zigzag.

Alternation is a guideline and not a rule; it does not have to be seen. Very occasionally second and fourth waves do take the same structural form. Because this is not common, the probability of this wave count is low.

There would be alternation in depth: minute wave ii was a very deep 0.79 correction while minute wave iv is a shallow 0.36 correction.

If price can break above the cyan trend line early next week, then this wave count would increase in probability to be the main wave count. At that stage, expect a strong increase in upwards momentum and look out for a blow off top.

Within minute wave v, the upcoming correction for minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) below 1,276.96.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

There are a lot of assumptions out there about Gold and its relationships to various other markets. Happily, there is a quick and easy mathematical method to determine if Gold is indeed related to any other market: StockCharts have a “correlation” option in their indicators that shows the correlation coefficient between any selected market and the one charted.

The correlation coefficient ranges from -1 to 1. A correlation coefficient of 1 is a perfect positive correlation whereas a correlation coefficient of -1 is a perfect negative correlation.

A correlation coefficient of 0.5 to 1 is a strong positive correlation. A correlation coefficient of -0.5 to -1 is a strong negative correlation.

Any two markets which have a correlation coefficient that fluctuates about zero or spends time in the 0.5 to -0.5 range (shown by highlighted areas on the chart) may not be said to have a correlation. Markets which sometimes have a positive or negative correlation, but sometimes do not, may not be assumed to continue a relationship when it does arise. The relationship is not reliable.

For illustrative purposes I have included the correlation coefficient between Gold and Silver, which is what strong and reliable correlation should look like.

Gold made a higher high and a higher low this week, although the candlestick has closed red. An increase in volume is bullish. The long lower wick on the candlestick is also bullish although the colour is bearish.

ADX does not yet indicate a trend. If it reaches 15 or above, then it would indicate an upwards trend. RSI indicates there is still plenty of room for price to rise. This chart is bullish.


Gold Daily 2016
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I do not have confidence in the data from StockCharts for the daily candlestick for the 12th of April. As the session ended, I did not see a spike down to 1,278, which is their close, and creates the long upper wick on their candlestick.

The long lower wicks on the last four daily candlesticks are bullish.

Volume indicates the last two upwards days may be still part of a consolidation and not yet the resumption of the upwards trend. This favours the main hourly Elliott wave count.

The only concern here for the main hourly Elliott wave count is ADX at almost extreme. Usually, when the black ADX line reaches above both directional lines the trend ends there or within a day or two. This may favour the main Elliott wave count; a couple of days of further consolidation with a slightly deeper move at the end may flatten the black ADX line allowing it to draw away from the +DX line. Alternatively, a strong upwards move may pull the +DX line back above the ADX line.

Price may find support about the Fibonacci 13 day moving average.

The short and mid term moving averages have a positive slope and price is above both. An upwards trend for the short and mid term is indicated. The long term 200 day moving average may be flattening off; it is still declining but only very slightly. If it begins to have a positive slope, it may be rolling over.



GDX Daily 2016
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Price is back within the prior consolidation zone. This zone is now widened. There is some distance to go before price may find support about 22.50.

With ATR declining, ADX declining, and Bollinger Bands tightly contracted, this downwards movement looks like a pullback and not a new downwards trend. Support is about 22.75 and next about 22.50.


Gold Daily 2016
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This study of a third wave will be left in daily analysis until the current third wave is either proven to be wrong (invalidated) or it is complete.

This third wave spans 59 trading days.

It was not until the 40th day that the overlapping ended and the third wave took off strongly.

The middle of the third wave is the end of minute wave iii, which ended in a blow off top.

There is excellent alternation between second and fourth wave corrections.

This third wave began with a series of five overlapping first and second waves (if the hourly chart were to be added, it would be seven) before momentum really builds and the overlapping ends.

The fifth wave of minuette wave (v) is the strongest portion.

This third wave curves upwards. This is typical of Gold’s strong impulses. They begin slowly, accelerate towards the middle, and explode at the end. They do not fit neatly into channels. In this instance, the gold coloured curve was used.

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

This trend began after a long consolidation period of which the upper edge is bound by the blue trend line. After the breakout above the blue trend line, price curved back down to test support at the line before moving up and away.

RSI reaches overbought while price continues higher for another five days and RSI reaches above 85. The point in time where RSI reaches overbought is prior to the strongest upwards movement.

ADX reached above 35 on the 9th of February, but price continued higher for another two days.

The lesson to be learned here: look for RSI to be extreme and ADX to be extreme at the same time, then look for a blow off top. Only then expect that the middle of a big third wave is most likely over.

The end of this big third wave only came after the blow off top was followed by shallow consolidation, and more highs. At its end RSI exhibited strong divergence with price and On Balance Volume gave a bearish signal.

Third waves require patience at their start and patience at their ends.

This analysis is published @ 09:25 p.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Trading advice and member comments and discussion will remain private.]


I have left my stop on my long position at 1,270.89. With price fluctuating about the lower trend line, this may be another opportunity to enter long positions. But if the main Elliott wave count is correct, they may be underwater for a couple of days. Stops for new long positions may also be set at 1,270.89, but there is a risk here that a whipsaw may close out longs only to see price move higher. Alternatively, set stops just below 1,261 for new long positions here, and reduce position size to keep risk from 1-5% of equity.

Profit targets may be set at 1,333 in the first instance.

As always, risk management is the single most important aspect of trading. Take it seriously. My two Golden Rules are:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.