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Price remained within channels and continued higher.

Today’s strong upwards session with heavy volume looks like a blowoff top.

Summary: It looks like a blow off top may have ended upwards movement today. However, price remains within the best fit channels. While price remains within the steeper channel particularly, expect it to keep going up. When the channel is breached, it would be likely price has changed trend.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last historic analysis with monthly charts is here, video is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.


For clarity I have decided at this time it may be best to publish on a daily basis weekly charts I and II. Both charts expect a zigzag down to complete and the difference is in the expected depth.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly I 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Combinations are very common structures. Cycle degree waves normally last one to several years, and B waves do tend to be more time consuming waves than all other waves. Given these tendencies the most likely scenario at this point may be that cycle wave b is an incomplete double combination.

The first structure in the double labelled primary wave W fits as a zigzag. This upwards movement will subdivide as either a three (zigzag) or a five (impulse). It does have a three wave look to it.

The double is joined by a deep three in the opposite direction labelled primary wave X, which is a 0.77 depth of primary wave W. X waves within double combinations are normally very deep; this one looks right.

The second structure in the combination may be either a triangle or a flat correction. Both of these structures have A waves which subdivide as threes.

At this stage, the upwards wave from the low in December 2016 does now look best and subdivide best as a completed zigzag. This may be intermediate wave (A) of a flat correction or a triangle. Because a triangle for primary wave Y would look essentially the same as the second weekly chart below, only a flat correction is considered here. The most common two structures in a double combination are a zigzag and a flat.

This wave count follows the most common scenario and has the best fit.

Within the flat correction of primary wave Y, intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 1,140.27. The most common length for intermediate wave (B) is from 1 to 1.38 times the length of intermediate wave (A), giving a common range from 1,123.08 to 1,057.77.

Intermediate wave (B) may subdivide as any corrective structure, but the most common structure for B waves within flats is a zigzag. At this stage, on the hourly chart it looks like a five down is now complete, which would indicate intermediate wave (B) is a zigzag subdividing 5-3-5.

The daily and hourly charts will follow this weekly chart. That does not mean the other two weekly charts aren’t possible, they are, but the number of charts must be kept reasonable on a daily basis.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly II 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

What if cycle wave b is a triangle? This is also entirely possible. Triangles are not as common as double combinations, but they are not uncommon.

Within the triangle, primary waves A, B and C are all single zigzags. One of the five subwaves of a triangle normally subdivides as a more complicated multiple, usually a double zigzag. This may be what is unfolding for primary wave D.

Primary wave D of a regular contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 1,123.08.

Primary wave D of a regular barrier triangle should end about the same level as primary wave B at 1,123.08, so that the B-D trend line is essentially flat. What this means in practice is that primary wave D may end slightly below 1,123.08 and the triangle would remain valid. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.

Thereafter, primary wave E should unfold upwards and would most likely fall a little short of the A-C trend line. If not ending there, it may overshoot the A-C trend line.

At this stage, the structure on the hourly chart is still the same for both this weekly wave count and the first weekly wave count: a zigzag downwards is unfolding. However, they now diverge in how far down the next wave is expected to go. This second weekly wave count expects a more shallow movement to not end reasonably below 1,123.08.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This daily chart will suffice for both weekly charts above, although the labelling follows weekly chart I.

Both weekly charts expect a zigzag downwards. Weekly chart I expects a deep zigzag for intermediate wave (B) to a minimum at 1,140.27. Weekly chart II expects a zigzag down for primary wave D to not move below 1,123.08 and most likely fall well short of that point.

The daily chart follows the expectations for weekly chart I, but the structure for weekly chart II would be exactly the same.

Within the flat correction of primary wave Y, intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 1,140.27. The most likely corrective structures to achieve the deep correction required for B waves within flats are single or multiple zigzags. These begin with a five, then a three in the opposite direction.

Minor wave A is complete today and now minor wave B may also be complete as a quick sharp zigzag. Because of the blowoff top today that looks to be most likely.

However, there can be no confidence yet that minor wave B is over while price remains within both small channels on the hourly chart. Accept that it may continue higher.

Original targets for minor wave B were the 0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci ratios. Minor wave B today has almost touched the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio, which is at 1,264.34.

If minor wave B continues higher, it may not move beyond the start of minor wave A above 1,294.96.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Two narrow best fit channels are drawn about this upwards movement. It is very important that members do not have confidence yet that minor wave B is over while price remains within the channels. Only when the first channel is clearly breached may any confidence be had. Reasonable confidence in a trend change may be had if the second channel is breached.

The blow off top seen today may have been minute wave c. C waves can behave like third waves, and third waves often end in blow off tops.

If minor wave B moves higher, then the target calculated for minor wave C must also move correspondingly higher.

If minor wave C lasts a total of 12 sessions, then intermediate wave (B) may last a total Fibonacci 34 sessions.

It is my judgement that this first hourly chart has a higher probability for the following reasons:

– Today’s session completes a blow off top, and this may be followed by a reversal.

– The 0.618 Fibonacci ratio is almost met.

– Price found resistance about 1,260.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

It is also possible that upwards movement for the last six sessions is a complete five wave impulse.

The blow off top may be followed by a consolidation for a B wave within a B wave. This may take a few days.

Thereafter, another upwards wave may make minor wave B very deep indeed, deeper than the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio.

This is possible, but it has a lower probability than the main hourly wave count.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly II 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This weekly chart is published today in response to a member’s query.

What if the bull market beginning in December 2015 remains intact? Price has essentially been moving sideways since that date, so all possibilities should be considered.

A possible Morning Doji Star reversal pattern at the low labelled intermediate wave (B) would support this wave count.

This wave count requires confirmation above 1,294.96. That would invalidate the first three weekly charts (the third is seen in historic analysis only).

It is possible that cycle wave b is continuing higher as a double zigzag. However, double zigzags normally have brief and shallow X waves. The purpose of the second zigzag in a double (and the third when there is one) is to deepen the correction when price does not move deep enough in the first (or second) zigzag. Thus double (and triple) zigzags normally have a strong and clear slope against the prior trend. To achieve this look their X waves normally are brief and shallow.

In this case, primary wave X is neither brief nor shallow. It is a 0.77 depth of primary wave W and lasted 0.74 the duration of primary wave W. Overall, this does not have a typical look of a double zigzag so far.

This wave count should only be used if confirmed with a new high above 1,294.96. Low probability does not mean no probability, but should always be given less weight until proven.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Another downwards week closes green with a small real body. This is a spinning top candlestick that shifts the trend from down to neutral.

The balance of volume is upwards and shows a decline. Upwards movement may be a counter trend movement if it does not have support from volume.

The bullish signal from On Balance Volume suggests this week may see upwards movement.


Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Today’s session looks very much like a strong blow off top, typical of commodities. Expect either a sideways consolidation for a few days, or a reversal, after a blow off top.

There is slight bearish divergence between price and On Balance Volume to support the view of a reversal here.

There is room for price to rise further; neither RSI nor Stochastics are yet overbought.

If this is a new trend, then it is concerning that Bollinger Bands continue to contract. This trend still lacks expanding volatility.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

There is no gap between the 15th and 17th of May because the high of the 15th was 23.13 and the low for the 17th was exactly the same.

While this upwards day came with stronger volume, the last four upwards sessions have come with a steady decline in volume. This session looks like it may possibly be a smaller blow off top.

The spinning top candlestick of this session indicates indecision, a balance of bulls and bears.

This upwards movement of the last nine days still has declining ATR, contracting Bollinger Bands, and overall lighter volume than the prior downwards movement. Overall, it still looks more likely to be a counter trend bounce than a new trend for GDX.

With Stochastics now overbought and a spinning top candlestick pattern, members are advised to wait one more day to see if a reversal pattern emerges.

This analysis is published @ 09:40 p.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]