Category Archives: US Oil Historical

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th June, 2015

Upwards movement was not over and a new high was made. Thereafter, price has again turned down, but is this the end of a trend or just a correction against the trend?

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th June, 2015

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th May, 2015

US Oil did not continue higher towards the target which was at 64.39. It has turned lower.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th May, 2015

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th May, 2015

US Oil continues to behave as expected.

Summary: Upwards movement is very close to completion. The target is at 64.39.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2014
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This wave count sees US Oil as within a big super cycle wave (II) zigzag. Cycle wave c is highly likely to move at least slightly below the end of cycle wave a at 32.70 to avoid a truncation. Cycle wave c may end when price touches the lower edge of the big teal channel about this zigzag.

Within cycle wave c, the degree of labelling has been moved up one degree. Cycle wave c is unfolding as an impulse. Within it, primary waves 1, 2, 3 and now almost 4 are complete. This wave count expects primary wave 5 to be extended which is typical for commodities. When primary wave 4 is complete, then a price target for primary wave 5 may be calculated.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory above 91.76.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2014
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Primary wave 2 was a deep 0.78 double combination structure. Given the guideline of alternation, primary wave 4 may be expected to be more shallow and most likely a zigzag, flat or triangle. At this stage, it looks like primary wave 4 is unfolding as an expanded flat correction. This provides some structural alternation with the combination of primary wave 2.

Within primary wave 4, intermediate wave (C) has passed 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (A) and the structure is still incomplete. Intermediate wave (C) may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to intermediate wave (A). Minor wave degree would be better to calculate a target for this upwards movement to end.

The channel about cycle wave c is drawn here as a best fit. Primary wave 4 may find resistance about the upper edge, and this may be where upwards movement ends.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014
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Intermediate wave (C) must subdivide as a five wave structure, and is unfolding as an impulse.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves 1 and 3. This makes it more likely that minor wave 5 will exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either minor waves 1 or 3. At 64.39 minor wave 5 would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave 1. This ratio may be more likely because it does not allow too much of an overshoot of the upper edge of the best fit channel which is copied over here from the weekly chart.

Draw a channel about intermediate wave (C) using Elliott’s first technique. When there is at least one full daily candlestick below the lower edge of this blue channel and not touching the lower blue trend line, that shall provide trend channel confirmation that intermediate wave (C) is over. At that stage, it would be extremely likely that primary wave 4 in its entirety is over and primary wave 5 down would have begun.

In order to reach the target at 64.39, primary wave 4 will have to break through resistance at the upper edge of the downwards sloping maroon channel. Sometimes fourth waves are not contained within these channels. If that happens as expected, then the channel will be redrawn using Elliott’s second technique to show where primary wave 5 down may find support.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th April, 2015

While Gold may be in a consolidation phase and difficult to analyse, US Oil has been behaving exactly as expected.

Summary: The corrective structure is now clearer. The higher target zone of 59.07 – 61.57 is almost reached. The structure is incomplete. The target remains the same.

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US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2014

Intermediate wave (4) may not move back into intermediate wave (1) price territory above 91.76.

Draw a channel about this downwards movement using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the ends of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy on the high of intermediate wave (2). I would expect intermediate wave (4) to find resistance at the upper edge of the channel, and it may end there.

Intermediate wave (2) was a deep 78% double combination. Given the guideline of alternation I would expect intermediate wave (4) to be more shallow. It is now an almost complete expanded flat correction.

Intermediate wave (4) would be most likely to end at either the or 0.382 Fibonacci ratio at 61.57 if it gets that high. This is the upper edge of the target zone.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Intermediate wave (4) is unfolding as an expanded flat correction. Minor wave B is a 115% correction of minor wave A. Minor wave C would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave A at 59.07. This is the lower edge of the target zone.

Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure. So far within it minute wave iii is incomplete. Minor wave C needs minute waves iii, iv and v to complete.

Within minute wave iii minuette wave (iv) looks like it is subdividing as a triangle. It may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory below 52.49.

When the triangle is complete for minuette wave (iv) (it may already be complete, if not it should be over very soon) then minuette wave (v) up should complete minute wave iii.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory below 50.43.

When minute wave iii is complete redraw the channel: the first trend line from the high labelled minute wave i to wherever minute wave iii ends, then a parallel copy on the low of minute wave ii. Use this channel to show where minute wave iv may find support, and where minute wave v up may find resistance.

Only after the structure for minor wave C can be seen as a complete impulse, then when that channel is clearly breached by a full daily candlestick below it and not touching the lower trend line, that shall provide earliest confirmation that intermediate wave (4) is finally over and intermediate wave (5) down has begun.

So far intermediate wave (4) is in its twelfth week. It may end in one more week to total a Fibonacci thirteen.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th March, 2015

A big fourth wave correction is unfolding as expected from last Elliott wave analysis. Now there there is more structure to analyse a better target may be calculated.

Summary: I expect either some upwards movement to end 59.07 – 61.57 to be reached in about six weeks, or sideways movement for a big triangle which may last another 21 weeks. I do not expect US Oil to move above 91.76.

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US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2014

Intermediate wave (4) may not move back into intermediate wave (1) price territory above 91.76.

Draw a channel about this downwards movement using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the ends of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy on the high of intermediate wave (2). I would expect intermediate wave (4) to find resistance at the upper edge of the channel, and it may end there.

Intermediate wave (2) was a deep 78% double combination. Given the guideline of alternation I would expect intermediate wave (4) to be more shallow. It may be a zigzag, flat or triangle most likely. If it is an expanded flat or running triangle it may include a new low below its start at 43.58.

Intermediate wave (4) would be most likely to end at either the 0.236 or 0.382 Fibonacci ratios of intermediate wave (3).

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Intermediate wave (4) may be unfolding as a single flat, triangle, double flat or combination. A single flat or triangle are most likely to provide structural alternation with the double combination of intermediate wave (2).

If intermediate wave (4) is a flat correction then within it minor wave C is a 115% correction of minor wave A so this would be an expanded flat. Minor wave C would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave A at 59.07. A single flat correction may end more quickly, in maybe another six weeks for intermediate wave (4) to complete in a total Fibonacci 13 weeks.

If intermediate wave (4) is a triangle then it would be moving into minor wave C of a five wave regular contracting triangle. Minor wave C may not move beyond the end of minor wave A above 54.11. If we see movement above this price point in the next few weeks then intermediate wave (4) would most likely be a single flat. If price does not move above this point in the next few weeks then intermediate wave (4) may be a triangle which may be expected to be longer lasting with very choppy sideways movement in an ever decreasing range. It may end closer to the 0.236 Fibonacci ratio and it may take another 21 weeks to unfold.

Overall the consolidation phase for US Oil is not over. I expect more upwards and / or sideways movement. When it is done the breakout should be down for intermediate wave (5).

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th February, 2015

It looks like the third wave is finally over at 43.58, just $0.85 below the final target calculated at 44.43.

Summary: I expect choppy overlapping movement for about 28 to 34 weeks in total (another 26 to 32 weeks following the date of this analysis) for a sideways fourth wave correction at intermediate degree. The target for it to end is 53.61 to 59.03. It may include a new low below 43.58. US Oil has entered a consolidation phase.

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US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2014

Intermediate wave (4) may not move back into intermediate wave (1) price territory above 91.76.

Draw a channel about this downwards movement using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the ends of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy on the high of intermediate wave (2). I would expect intermediate wave (4) to find resistance at the upper edge of the channel, and it may end there.

Intermediate wave (2) was a deep 78% double combination. Given the guideline of alternation I would expect intermediate wave (4) to be more shallow. It may be a zigzag, flat or triangle most likely. If it is an expanded flat or running triangle it may include a new low below its start at 43.58.

Intermediate wave (4) would be most likely to end at either the 0.236 or 0.382 Fibonacci ratios of intermediate wave (3).

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Intermediate wave (4) may end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree. Minor wave 4 price territory is from 53.61 to 59.03. This indicates a very shallow correction for intermediate wave (4) may be more likely, reaching only to the 0.236 Fibonacci ratio about 53.95.

The pink channel is drawn about intermediate wave (3) as a best fit. When this channel is breached that would provide further confidence in this wave count.

I expect intermediate wave (4) to last about the same duration as intermediate wave (2) which was 28 weeks. It may be a little longer, lasting a Fibonacci 34 weeks.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th January, 2015

This third wave has blitzed all targets so far, and the structure is incomplete.

Summary: The next possible point for this to end is about 44.43. A new high above 57.14 would provide price confirmation that the downwards fall is over for the mid term.

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US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2014

Intermediate wave (4) to come may not move back into intermediate wave (1) price territory above 91.76.

Intermediate wave (3) is not finished, but it is getting very close.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Within intermediate wave (3) a recent triangle for minor wave 4 indicates that the final fifth wave may be unfolding.

At 44.43 minor wave 5 would reach 0.236 the length of minor wave 3. Because minor waves 1 and 3 do not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to each other I would expect minor wave 5 to exhibit a ratio, the only question is which one of several it will be. This is what is making target calculation so difficult.

Only a new high above 57.14 would indicate that intermediate wave (3) is over. This point is the start of minor wave 5. A new high beyond its start may not be a second wave correction within minor wave 5, and so at that point minor wave 5 would have to be over.

The channel drawn here is a best fit, and now may not be useful to show when downwards movement is over. The price point provided should be more useful.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th December, 2014

Intermediate wave (3) down should continue to 54.05.

Summary: A third wave is underway. Corrections are brief and shallow. The new target is at 54.05. Only a clear breach of the pink channel on the daily chart would indicate that the downwards trend is being interrupted by an upwards correction.

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US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2014

The bigger picture sees US Oil in a super cycle second wave correction unfolding as a huge zigzag. Within the zigzag cycle wave a subdivides best as a five, indicating a zigzag, and cycle wave b is a complete double zigzag.

Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 107.67.

Cycle wave c is most likely to end when price finds support at the lower edge of the large channel.

Within cycle wave c intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1) at 54.05.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2014

Intermediate wave (3) has now moved far enough beyond the end of intermediate wave (1) to move the invalidation point down. Intermediate wave (4) to come may not move back into intermediate wave (1) price territory above 91.76.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Minor wave 3 is not over, and minor wave 4 to follow it should be brief and shallow. Along the way down to the target for intermediate wave (3) to end I now expect a continuation of strong downwards movement with shallow and brief corrections interrupting it. The pink channel is a best fit channel: draw the first trend line from the lows labelled minute waves i to iii, then place a parallel copy on the high labelled subminuette wave ii. This channel is nicely showing where upwards movement is finding resistance. The channel is being breached to the downside by a strong fifth wave, typical of commodities.

Only when this channel is breached by upward movement would I expect that the downwards trend is over for the mid term. At that stage I would expect that intermediate wave (3) would be over and intermediate wave (4) would have begun.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st October, 2014

The target at 84.65 was comfortably passed and the structure is incomplete.

Summary: The new target for this wave to end is 79.67 – 78.15, which may be met within one to two weeks.

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US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2014

The bigger picture sees US Oil in a super cycle second wave correction unfolding as a huge zigzag. Within the zigzag cycle wave a subdivides best as a five, indicating a zigzag, and cycle wave b is a complete double zigzag.

If cycle wave b were to continue any higher it may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a above 146.73.

Cycle wave c is most likely to end when price finds support at the lower edge of the large channel.

Within cycle wave c intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1) at 53.92.

Depending on the length of this third wave I may consider moving the labeling within cycle wave c all up one degree.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2014

Intermediate wave (1) down looks like a five wave impulse and intermediate wave (2) upwards looks like a clearly contrasting correction with a lot of choppy overlapping movement.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor wave 1 is close to completion. When it is done I will draw a Fibonacci retracement along its length and expect minor wave 2 to end about the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio in the first instance, and the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio slightly less likely. Because this would be a second wave correction within a third wave it may be more shallow and brief than otherwise.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 107.54.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Minor wave 1 is ending with a typically strong fifth wave.

Within minor wave 1 minute wave iii is 0.52 short of 6.854 the length of minute wave i. At 78.15 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave iii.

Within minute wave v there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (iii) and (i). I would expect to see a Fibonacci ratio between minuette wave (v) to either of (i) or (iii). At 79.67 minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (i).

I favour the upper end of this target zone because it is calculated at a lower degree.

Draw a channel about minute wave v using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the lows of minuette waves (i) to (iii), then place a parallel copy on the high of minuette wave (ii). I would expect minuette wave (v) to find support and end at the lower edge of this channel.

When this green channel is breached by at least one full daily candlestick above it and not touching the upper green trend line then I would take that as trend channel confirmation that minor wave 1 is over and minor wave 2 is underway.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 107.67.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th August, 2014

Downwards movement has continued as expected. The wave count remains the same.

Summary: The target remains at 74.53. This target may be 13 weeks away.

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US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2014

Upwards movement has hit the upper teal trend line. Since price bounced down from that trend line this provides some confidence in this main wave count.

The one thing which looks most certain in this wave count is cycle wave a downwards is a five wave impulse. This means cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a above 146.73. Cycle wave b should subdivide as a three wave structure and is labeled as a double zigzag, which should now be complete.

Within the double zigzag this wave count sees primary wave X as a regular contracting triangle, ending at 84.07 where intermediate wave (E) typically undershot the B-D trend line.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

It looks like the first five down within intermediate wave (3) is complete.

Ratios within minor wave 1 are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves iii and i, and minute wave v is 0.67 longer than 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

Within minor wave 1 minute wave ii is a deep 92% regular flat correction and minute wave iv is a more shallow 58% zigzag showing good alternation.

I have drawn a parallel channel about minor wave 1 using Elliott’s second technique: draw the first trend line from the ends of minute waves ii to iv, then place a parallel copy on the end of minute wave iii. When this pink channel is clearly breached by upwards movement that shall provide trend channel confirmation that minor wave 1 is over and minor wave 2 is underway.

At this early stage minor wave 2 is unconfirmed.

If minor wave 2 has begun here then it may end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 at 103.28.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 107.67.

The target for intermediate wave (3) remains at 74.53 where it would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). Intermediate wave (1) lasted 13 weeks and intermediate wave (2) lasted 28 weeks. I would expect intermediate wave (3) may last a Fibonacci 21 weeks. So far it is in its 8th week so it may continue for another 13 weeks.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th July, 2014

Movement below 104.51 confirmed the main wave count and invalidated the alternate wave count. The trend is down at cycle degree.

Summary: The target remains at 74.53 and this target may be still a few weeks away. A short term target is at 98.90 and may be met in about one or two weeks.

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US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2014

Upwards movement has hit the upper teal trend line. Since price bounced down from that trend line this provides some confidence in this main wave count.

The one thing which looks most certain in this wave count is cycle wave a downwards is a five wave impulse. This means cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a above 146.73. Cycle wave b should subdivide as a three wave structure. It looks like a double zigzag which should now be complete.

Within the double zigzag this wave count sees primary wave X as a regular contracting triangle, ending at 84.07 where intermediate wave (E) typically undershot the B-D trend line.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Within cycle wave c primary wave 1 is incomplete.

Within primary wave 1 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (2) is a double combination: expanded flat – X (triangle) – zigzag.

At 74.53 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). Intermediate wave (3) may only subdivide as a simple impulse.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory above 105.11.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart 2 Hourly 2014

I am not certain that my labeling of minor wave 1 is correct, but this movement does not subdivide as an impulse. It may be an atypical leading diagonal.

At 98.90 minor wave 3 would reach 4.236 the length of minor wave 1. This target may be too high however. It expects that minor wave 5 should be a long extension, and this may not be the case. Minor wave 3 may turn out to end lower and may be the longest extended wave down.

Within minute wave iii minuette wave (iii) is 0.41 short of 4.236 the length of minuette wave (i).

Ratios within minuette wave (iii) are: subminuette wave iii is just 0.12 short of 0.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of subminuette waves i or iii. Subminuette wave iii shows the strongest downwards momentum within minuette wave (iii).

Ratios within subminuette wave i are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves 3 and 1, and micro wave 5 is just 0.16 longer than 1.618 the length of micro wave 1.

I have used Elliott’s first technique to draw a parallel channel about minute wave iii. Draw the first trend line from the ends of minuette waves (i) to (iii), then place a parallel copy on the end of minuette wave (ii). I would expect minuette wave (iv) to be very likely to remain contained within this channel.

Minuette wave (v) may end either at the lower edge of the channel, or it may overshoot the lower edge of the channel.

Minuette wave (iv) would most likely end just below the end of the fourth wave of one lesser degree at 101.18. It may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory above 105.04.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th June, 2014

Last analysis expected downwards movement with an increase in momentum. This is not what happened. Upwards movement above 105.21 invalidated the daily wave count.

Summary: An important trend line has been touched. I expect downwards movement from this point. The long term target at 74.53 is at least three months away, probably longer.

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Main Wave Count.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2014

I am swapping over my main and alternate wave counts for US Oil at the monthly chart level. I am doing this because upwards movement has hit the upper teal trend line. The confirmation / invalidation points are reasonably close together. We may have clarity between these two wave counts quite soon. In the meantime I would judge this main wave count to have the better overall look and so a higher probability.

The one thing which looks most certain in this wave count is cycle wave a downwards is a five wave impulse. This means cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a above 146.73. Cycle wave b should subdivide as a three wave structure. It looks like a double zigzag which may be complete.

Within the double zigzag this wave count sees primary wave X as a regular contracting triangle, ending at 84.07 where intermediate wave (E) typically undershot the B-D trend line. The alternate analysis sees primary wave X triangle ending later at 85.64, and this is the key difference between the two wave counts.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Within cycle wave c intermediate waves (1) and now (2) may also be complete. Intermediate wave (2) subdivides as a combination: expanded flat – triangle for X – zigzag.

At 74.53 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). It should last at least the same duration as intermediate wave (1) which was three months, but most likely it would be substantially longer. It may last about six months or so.

Divergence between price and MACD during the end of intermediate wave (2) supports this wave count.

Movement below 104.51 at this stage would invalidate the alternate wave count below and confirm this main wave count.

Alternate Wave Count.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2014

This alternate wave count sees the triangle for primary wave X ending later, and at that point the structure for the triangle actually has a much better look than the main wave count.

This wave count expects some more upwards movement before cycle wave b is complete.

Cycle wave b is still seen as a double zigzag, and the second zigzag for primary wave Y is incomplete. Only intermediate wave (C) needs to complete.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Within intermediate wave (C) minor waves 1 and now 2 are complete. Minor wave 2 ended with a truncated C wave.

At 112.73 minor wave 3 would reach equality in length with minor wave 1.

At 110.86 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave i.

Minor wave 3 has not shown an increase in upwards momentum beyond that seen for minor wave 1. This reduces the probability of this wave count to an alternate.

Within minor wave 3 minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory below 104.51.

At 117.84 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).