Yesterday’s analysis expected downwards movement for Tuesday to complete a red candlestick. This is exactly what happened.

I have two hourly wave counts for you today.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st January, 2014

Yesterday’s analysis expected downwards movement for Tuesday to complete a red candlestick. This is exactly what happened.

I have two hourly wave counts for you today.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st January, 2014

Last analysis expected a little more upwards movement before a second wave correction arrived. This is exactly what happened.

The wave count remains the same. I have two hourly charts for you today.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 2nd January, 2014

Both the main and alternate hourly wave counts expected more upwards movement for Monday. The target for the main wave count was 1,251. So far it has been exceeded by 1.32.

Both wave counts remain the same and both remain valid.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

*Main Wave Count.*

Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete. To see a full explanation of my reasoning for expecting that primary wave 4 is not over and is continuing see this.

Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat correction, and was a deep 68% correction of primary wave 1. In order to show alternation in structure primary wave 4 may be a zigzag, double zigzag, combination, triangle or even an expanded or regular flat. We can rule out a zigzag because the first wave subdivides as a three. This still leaves several structural possibilities.

If primary wave 4 is a combination, expanded flat or running triangle then we may see a new low below 1,180.40 within it. This is why there is no lower invalidation point for intermediate wave (X).

If price reaches 1,205.74 then downwards movement labeled intermediate wave (X) would be 90% of upwards movement labeled intermediate wave (W). I would relabel primary wave 4 as an A-B-C flat correction. If price does not reach 1,205.74 then primary wave 4 is most likely a double combination.

Minor wave C must subdivide either as an ending diagonal or an impulse. It is clearly not an ending diagonal so it can only be an impulse. This impulsive structure is now almost complete; the final fifth wave downwards just needs to finish.

There was no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves iii and i within minor wave C. This makes it more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio exhibited between minute wave v and either of i or iii. At 1,159 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave iii. At this stage this lower target allows enough room for minute wave v to complete.

Draw a parallel channel about minor wave C downwards with the first trend line from the highs labeled minute waves ii to iv, then place a parallel copy upon the low labeled minute wave iii. If it gets that low downwards movement should find support at the lower edge of this channel.

I would expect downwards movement to also find support at the lower edge of the parallel channel drawn here about intermediate wave (X).

Draw a parallel channel about the zigzag of intermediate wave (X): draw the first trend line from the start of minor wave A to the end of minor wave B, then place a parallel copy upon the end of minor wave A. When this channel is finally breached by upwards movement then I would consider that final confirmation that intermediate wave (Y) is underway.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

*Main Hourly Wave Count.*

I have adjusted the wave count within the end of subminuette wave i after a more careful consideration of the hourly chart. It does not change the wave count at minuette wave degree.

Ratios within minuette wave (i) are: subminuette wave iii is 3.55 longer than 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette waves iii or i.

Upwards movement looks very clearly like a three wave structure which is now complete. Within minuette wave (ii) there is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves a and c.

Movement below 1,238.75 would invalidate the alternate hourly chart below, and provide some confidence for this main wave count.

I have drawn a parallel channel about minuette wave (ii). When this channel is clearly breached by downwards movement we shall have trend channel confirmation that minuette wave (ii) is over and minuette wave (iii) is underway.

At 1,175 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Minuette wave (iii) downwards should exhibit an increase in downwards momentum beyond that seen for minuette wave (i). It may take about a week to unfold.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,267.98.

*Alternate Hourly Wave Count.*

If we simply move the degree of labeling within the last wave down all up one degree then there may have been an intermediate degree trend change at 1,220.65, but if this is the case minute wave v would be truncated. This truncation reduces the probability of this wave count.

1-2-3 and A-B-C subdivide in exactly the same way. For this alternate upwards movement from the low may be 1-2-3. The following fourth wave may not move into first wave price territory below 1,238.75.

If price moves below 1,238.75 the probability of this wave count reduces further. It would be possible at that stage that a leading diagonal may be unfolding in a first wave position, but leading diagonals are not common; impulses for first waves are more common.

This alternate wave count requires confirmation with movement above 1,267.98 before I would have confidence in it.

*Alternate Daily Wave Count – Triangle.*

It is also possible that primary wave 4 may continue as a regular contracting (or barrier) triangle.

The expected direction and structure of this next upwards wave is the same, but for this alternate intermediate wave (C) of the triangle may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (A). The triangle is invalidated with movement above 1,438.83.

The final intermediate wave (E) upwards may not move above the end of intermediate wave (C) for both a contracting and barrier triangle. E waves most commonly end short of the A-C trend line.

All five subwaves of a triangle must divide into corrective structures. If this next upwards movement subdivides as a zigzag which does not make a new high above 1,438.83 then this alternate would be correct.

Triangles take up time and move price sideways. If primary wave 4 unfolds as a triangle then I would expect it to last months rather than weeks.

Yesterday’s analysis had a main and alternate wave count which I judged to have an even probability. Upwards movement for Friday has taken Gold outside of the parallel channel on the daily chart. This is the first thing I was looking for to indicate which wave count is correct.

For the end of week analysis I can now state I judge the main wave count to have a higher probability than the alternate.

The alternate remains valid, but the probability that it is correct has reduced.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th November, 2013

Last analysis expected a little more upwards movement to a short term target at 1,301. Price did not meet the target in a quiet sideways session.

The wave counts remain the same.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th November, 2013

Yesterday’s analysis expected downwards movement for a correction. This is not what happened as price has moved higher.

The correction is still valid if it is a flat.

I have three hourly wave counts (one main and two alternates) for you after considering as many possibilities as I can see. I have provided confirmation and invalidation points to work with these three wave counts today.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th October, 2013

Yesterday’s analysis expected a little upwards movement to find resistance at the upper edge of a channel drawn on the hourly chart, before a trend change and more downwards movement. This is exactly what happened.

The target at 1,260 is short / mid term and has not been met yet. This structure is incomplete.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

The bigger picture sees gold in a downwards trending five wave impulse at cycle degree for cycle wave a. Within this downwards impulse primary waves 1 through to 4 are complete. The final fifth wave down has begun.

The big maroon channel is drawn on the weekly chart using Elliott’s first technique, and copied over here. Draw the first trend line from the low of primary wave 1 at 1,532.90 to the low of primary wave 3, then place a parallel copy upon the high of primary wave 2 at 1,796.05. Expect primary wave 5 to find support at the lower end of this channel (or possibly to overshoot the channel if we see a fifth wave thrust).

At 1,046 primary wave 5 would reach equality in length with primary wave 1.

Within primary wave 5 minor wave 3 within intermediate wave (1) would reach 2.618 the length of minor wave 1 at 1,260.

Within primary wave 5 no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,433.83.

I have two hourly wave counts again for you today. The main hourly wave count has a higher probability than the alternate.

*Main Hourly Wave Count.*

This wave count expects that minor wave 3 is incomplete. This is my main wave count because it expects a Fibonacci ratio between minor waves 3 and 1, and it agrees perfectly with MACD. Normally I expect to see a second wave coincide with MACD crossing the zero line, as it does for minute wave ii at the top left of the chart. I expect the fourth wave to coincide with MACD coming to touch the zero line which it does for minute wave iv. The strongest MACD reading should correspond to close to the end of the third wave as this does, and the middle third wave within the third wave should correspond with the strongest reading on the histogram for MACD.

Minute wave iii is 2.61 short of 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) is 0.19 longer than 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette waves (iii) or (i).

Ratios within minuette wave (i) of minute wave v are: micro wave 3 is 1.57 short of 2.618 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1.

Within minute wave v at 1,272 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave i.

I would expect downwards movement for minuette wave (iii) to find support at the lower edge of this channel drawn using Elliott’s first technique. Draw the first trend line from the lows of minute waves i to iii, then place a parallel copy upon the high of minute wave ii.

The short / mid term target for minor wave 3 remains the same. At 1,260 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Within minuette wave (iii) subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,324.09.

If price moves above this point then the alternate below should be used. It has a lower probability.

*Alternate Hourly Wave Count.*

If price moves above 1,324.90 this wave count would be confirmed as correct. Movement above the upper edge of the pink parallel channel would provide trend channel confirmation that minor wave 3 is over and minor wave 4 should be underway.

If this happens then draw a new channel about this downwards movement. Draw the first trend line from the low of minor wave 1 shown on the daily chart, to the low of minor wave 3 here. Place a parallel copy upon the high of minor wave 2, also shown on the daily chart. Expect minor wave 4 to find resistance at the upper edge of that channel – blue trend lines.

For this alternate there would be no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves 3 and 1.

Ratios within minor wave 3 are: minute wave iii is just 0.72 short of 1.618 the length of minute wave i, and minute wave v is 2.94 short of 0.382 the length of minute wave iii.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) is just 0.53 longer than 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuete waves (i) or (iii).

This wave count would expect very choppy, overlapping sideways and upwards movement for about one to a few days for minor wave 4. It should be a shallow flat, combination or triangle. Minor wave 2 was a sharp deep 71% zigzag. Minor wave 4 would most likely end at the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 3 at 1,338.16.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,374.17.

Last analysis expected upwards movement, which would have been confirmed with a trend channel breach on the hourly chart. Price has moved sideways, and remains firmly within the channel.

The wave counts remain the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

*Main Wave Count.*

This wave count agrees with MACD. If upwards movement is within a third wave, then it should show an increase in upwards momentum beyond the end of minor wave 1. Because we have not seen that increase in upwards momentum yet (on the one to six hourly time frames) we probably have not seen the middle of the third wave.

At 1,545 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Within minor wave 3 subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated at minute wave degree with movement below 1,352.45.

Within subminuette wave iii micro wave 1 is complete and micro wave 2 is an incomplete flat correction.

Within micro wave 2 submicro wave (B) is a 109% correction of submicro wave (A), so this is an expanded flat. Expanded flats normally have C waves which are 1.618 the length of their A waves. At 1,374 submicro wave (C) would reach 1.618 the length of submicro wave (A).

Draw a parallel channel about subminuette wave ii. Draw the first trend line from the start of micro wave A to the end of micro wave B, then place a parallel copy upon the end of micro wave A. We need to see this channel breached to have confirmation that subminuette wave ii is over and subminuette wave iii is underway. When we have that breach I will have more confidence in calculated targets.

Micro wave 2 may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,359.25.

*Alternate Wave Count.*

If cycle wave a is unfolding as an impulse then recent upwards movement is primary wave 4 within the impulse. Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

Primary wave 4 is incomplete.

This wave count is an alternate because there are no Fibonacci ratios at intermediate degree within primary wave 3 of cycle wave III. I have spent much time trying to see a better fit in terms of ratios which meets all EW rules for this wave count, but so far I cannot. This does not mean it does not exist!

For this alternate wave count we need to see minor wave 3 within intermediate wave (C) as completed; there is not enough room for upwards movement if the third wave is extending.

At 1,440 intermediate wave (C) would reach intermediate wave (A). At 1,436 minor wave 5 would reach equality with minor wave 3. This gives us a $4 target zone for one final upwards wave. Thereafter, the downwards trend should resume.

There is no downwards invalidation point (beyond the short term) for this alternate.