Tag Archives: how will the silver do in 2013

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th January, 2014

Last analysis of Silver expected more upwards movement which is what we have seen. The short term target at 20.415 for the end of a third wave was almost met, and the third wave ended just 0.047 short of the target.

The wave count remains mostly the same. I will adjust the degree of labeling within the most recent movement and the target to better fit with the bigger picture.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Minor wave B is now a complete zigzag, which is within a bigger zigzag trending upwards one degree higher for intermediate wave (B).

Price movement above 20.489 would provide confidence in this trend change. At that stage upwards movement could not be a second wave correction within the final fifth wave down of minuette wave (v), and so minuette wave (v) would have to be over.

Further upwards movement above the pink parallel channel would provide more confidence in this trend change. A clear channel breach with a full daily candlestick above this channel and not touching the upper trend line would provide this confirmation.

At 25.49 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. Minor wave C should find resistance at the upper edge of the big blue channel about this large zigzag.

Minor wave B ended in 88 days, just one short of a Fibonacci 89. Minor wave C should last about 34 to 89 days, depending upon what structure it takes.

Minor wave C must subdivide into a five wave structure, either an ending diagonal or an impulse. An ending diagonal would be more time consuming. An impulse would be faster and is more likely as it is a more common structure.

Within minor wave C at 23.971 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i. This higher target fits with a more common expectation of an extended third wave, and so the final fifth wave may reach equality with the first.

Within minute wave iii I would expect to see its second and fourth waves, minuette waves (ii) and (iv), show as red candlesticks on the daily chart.

Within the new upwards trend no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 18.585.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

I have moved the degree of labeling within minute wave iii all down one degree. Within minute wave iii I expect that only minuette wave (i) is nearing completion.

Within minuette wave (i) subminuette wave i is exactly 0.382 in length. Subminuette wave iii is just 0.047 short of 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i. This makes target calculation for subminuette wave v difficult, and it may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either of subminuette waves i or iii. At 20.921 subminuette wave v would reach equality in length with subminuette wave iii. However, a more reliable way to see where upwards movement may end for this structure is the parallel channel.

Draw the parallel channel about minuette wave (i) using Elliott’s first technique. Draw the first trend line from the highs labeled subminuette waves i to iii, then place a parallel copy upon the low labeled subminuette wave ii. Subminuette wave iv slightly overshot the channel and did not breach the channel. I would expect subminuette wave v to find resistance and probably end about the upper edge of this channel.

When this channel is breached by subsequent downwards movement that shall be confirmation that minuette wave (i) is over and minuette wave (ii) is underway.

I would expect more upwards movement to complete minuette wave (i) in one or two days.

When minuette wave (i) is completed then I would expect a deep second wave correction. Draw a Fibonacci retracement along the length of minuette wave (i). I would expect minuette wave (ii) to reach down to the 0.382 or more likely 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minuette wave (i).

Minuette wave (ii) should show up on the daily chart as two or three red candlesticks.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 19.332.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th January, 2014

Last analysis of Silver on 31st December, 2013 expected a trend change and upwards movement. This is exactly what has happened so far. If price moves above 20.489 the new upwards trend would be confirmed.

The wave count remains the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Minor wave B is now a complete zigzag, which is within a bigger zigzag trending upwards one degree higher for intermediate wave (B).

Price movement above 20.489 would provide confidence in this trend change. At that stage upwards movement could not be a second wave correction within the final fifth wave down of minuette wave (v), and so minuette wave (v) would have to be over.

Further upwards movement above the pink parallel channel would provide more confidence in this trend change. A clear channel breach with a full daily candlestick above this channel and not touching the upper trend line would provide this confirmation.

At 25.49 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. Minor wave C should find resistance at the upper edge of the big blue channel about this large zigzag.

Minor wave B ended in 88 days, just one short of a Fibonacci 89. Minor wave C should last about 34 to 89 days, depending upon what structure it takes.

Minor wave C must subdivide into a five wave structure, either an ending diagonal or an impulse. An ending diagonal would be more time consuming. An impulse would be faster and is more likely as it is a more common structure.

Within the new upwards trend no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 18.585.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minute wave i completed a five wave impulse upwards. Minute wave ii completed as a regular flat correction with an abnormally long minuette wave (c), but all subdivisions are correct. Minute wave ii was a deep 58% correction of minute wave i.

Minute wave iii shows an increase in upwards momentum beyond that seen for minute wave i, confirming this is a third wave unfolding.

At 22.197 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. I would expect this target to be about three to five days away.

Within minute wave iii at 20.415 minuette wave (iii) would reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i). This target may be reached most likely on Monday, but may be reached on Tuesday.

Draw a parallel channel about minuette wave (iii) using Elliott’s first technique. Draw the first trend line from the highs labeled subminuette waves i to iii, then place a parallel copy upon the low of subminuette wave ii. I would expect subminuette wave iv to find support at the lower edge of this channel, and for the following upwards wave of subminuette wave v to find resistance at the upper edge of this channel. Subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 19.726.

When this channel is clearly breached by subsequent downwards movement that shall provide first indication that minuette wave (iii) is over and minuette wave (iv) is underway. I would not expect minuette wave (iv) to last longer than a day and it should not show on the daily chart as a red candlestick. Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 19.714.

Overall this wave count expects more upwards movement with smaller corrections along the way.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st December, 2013

Last analysis of Silver expected more downwards movement towards a target at 18.999. Downwards movement continued, reaching 18.585, 0.414 below the target.

The wave count remains the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Minor wave B is now a complete zigzag, which is within a bigger zigzag trending upwards one degree higher for intermediate wave (B).

Within minor wave B minute wave a subdivides nicely as a leading expanding diagonal. Within the leading diagonal all the subwaves are zigzags except the third wave which is an impulse. For this piece of movement this structure has the best fit.

Minute wave b is labeled as an expanded flat correction. Within it minuette waves (a) and (b) both subdivide as three wave zigzags, and minuette wave (b) is a 106% correction of minuette wave (a). There is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (a) and (c).

Minute wave c is now a complete impulse. Minute wave c is just 0.006 short of equality in length with minute wave a.

Ratios within minute wave c are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (iii) and (i), and minuette wave (v) is just 0.002 short of 0.618 the length of minuette wave (iii).

Minuette wave (v) subdivided into an ending expanding diagonal, where all the subwaves subdivided into zigzags. The structure is now complete.

Price movement above 20.489 would provide confidence in this trend change.

Further upwards movement above the pink parallel channel would provide more confidence in this trend change.

At 25.49 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. Minor wave C should find resistance at the upper edge of the big blue channel about this large zigzag.

Minor wave B ended in 88 days, just one short of a Fibonacci 89. Minor wave C should last about 34 to 89 days, depending upon what structure it takes.

Minor wave C must subdivide into a five wave structure, either an ending diagonal or an impulse. An ending diagonal would be more time consuming. An impulse would be faster and is more likely as it is a more common structure.

Within the new upwards trend no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 18.585.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th December, 2013

Last analysis of Silver expected downwards movement towards a mid term target at 18.999. Price has moved lower. The target has not yet been reached, and the structure is incomplete. The target remains the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Minor wave B is an almost complete zigzag, which is within a bigger zigzag trending upwards one degree higher for intermediate wave (B). Because within intermediate wave (B) minor wave A subdivides as a five wave structure, minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 18.215.

Within minor wave B minute wave a subdivides nicely as a leading expanding diagonal. Within the leading diagonal all the subwaves are zigzags except the third wave which is an impulse. For this piece of movement this structure has the best fit.

Minute wave b is labeled as an expanded flat correction. Within it minuette waves (a) and (b) both subdivide as three wave zigzags, and minuette wave (b) is a 106% correction of minuette wave (a). There is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (a) and (c).

Minute wave c is an incomplete impulse. At 18.591 minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a.

The narrow channel drawn about minute wave c is drawn using Elliott’s second technique. Draw the first trend line from the ends of minuette waves (ii) to (iv), then place a parallel copy upon the end of minuette wave (iii). Downwards movement may end close to the mid line of this channel.

At 18.999 minuette wave (v) would reach equality with minuette wave (i). This would see the fifth wave truncated, which is possible after a strong extended third wave. Equality with the first wave is the most common ratio for a fifth wave, so that is what I am using for this target calculation.

Within minuette wave (v) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 20.489.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within minute wave v there is now a completed five wave structure downwards, and a three wave structure upwards. This is most likely subminuette waves i and ii now complete.

Ratios within subminuette wave i are: micro wave 3 is just 0.029 short of 4.236 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 has no Fibonacci ratio to either micro waves 3 or 1.

Within subminuette wave ii there is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves A and C.

Subminuette wave iii must make a new low below the end of subminuette wave i at 19.305, and must move far enough below this price point to allow enough room for subminuette wave iv to unfold and not move back into subminuette wave i price territory.

I have drawn an acceleration channel about subminuette waves i and ii. Subminuette wave iii should breach the lower edge of this channel. On the way down any corrections should find resistance at the upper edge of this channel.

Within subminuette wave iii no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 20.279.

I would expect the target at 18.999 to be reached within two weeks.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th December, 2013

Last analysis of Silver expected more upwards movement towards a target at 20.184 before the resumption of the downwards trend for one final fifth wave.

Upwards movement continued and has reached 0.305 above the target so far.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Minor wave B is an almost complete zigzag, which is within a bigger zigzag trending upwards one degree higher for intermediate wave (B). Because within intermediate wave (B) minor wave A subdivides as a five wave structure, minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 18.215.

Within minor wave B minute wave a subdivides nicely as a leading expanding diagonal. Within the leading diagonal all the subwaves are zigzags except the third wave which is an impulse. For this piece of movement this structure has the best fit.

Minute wave b is labeled as an expanded flat correction. Within it minuette waves (a) and (b) both subdivide as three wave zigzags, and minuette wave (b) is a 106% correction of minuette wave (a). There is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (a) and (c).

Minute wave c is an incomplete impulse. At 18.591 minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a.

The narrow channel drawn about minute wave c is drawn using Elliott’s second technique. Draw the first trend line from the ends of minuette waves (ii) to (iv), then place a parallel copy upon the end of minuette wave (iii). I would expect minuette wave (v) to end within this channel.

Minuette wave (iv) is outside the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree; subminuette wave iv price territory is from 19.595 to 20.323. Fourth waves most often end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree, but not always.

At 18.999 minuette wave (v) would reach equality with minuette wave (i). This would see the fifth wave truncated, which is possible after a strong extended third wave. Equality with the first wave is the most common ratio for a fifth wave, so that is what I am using for this target calculation.

If minuette wave (iv) moves higher then it may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 21.598.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minuette wave (iv) is now a completed expanded flat. Within it subminuette wave b is a 200% correction of subminuette wave a, and subminuette wave c is 0.06 short of 6.854 the length of subminuette wave a (an unusual Fibonacci ratio, but mathematically correct).

This C wave is very long indeed which fits the overall behaviour of expanded flat corrections which have particularly deep B waves.

Ratios within subminuette wave c are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 0.02 longer than 0.236 the length of micro wave 1.

Within minuette wave (v) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 20.489.

If this wave count is invalidated with upwards movement then I would expect that minuette wave (iv) is continuing higher. The invalidation point moves up to 21.598.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th November, 2013

Last week’s analysis of Silver expected more downwards movement towards a target at 18.591 to 18.353. Price did move lower but has failed to reach the target. Downwards movement may have ended at 19.595, 1.004 short of the target zone.

The wave count remains mostly the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Minor wave B is now a complete zigzag.

Within minor wave B minute wave a subdivides nicely as a leading expanding diagonal. Within the leading diagonal all the subwaves are zigzags except the third wave which is an impulse. For this piece of movement this structure has the best fit.

Minute wave b is labeled as an expanded flat correction. Within it minuette waves (a) and (b) both subdivide as three wave zigzags, and minuette wave (b) is a 106% correction of minuette wave (a). There is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (a) and (c).

Minute wave c is now a complete impulse. Within minute wave c there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minuette waves (i), (iii) and (v).

The narrow channel drawn about minute wave c is drawn using Elliott’s first technique. Draw the first trend line from the ends of minuette waves (i) to (iii), then place a parallel copy upon the end of minuette wave (ii). This channel is now clearly breached by upwards movement which indicates minute wave c is over and the next wave has begun. The upper edge of the channel is now providing support.

Within minor wave C no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 19.595.

At 26.50 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

What is very clear on this hourly chart is the three wave structure for recent downwards movement. If price does not break below 19.595 then I would expect a third wave upwards to begin from here.

Upwards movement for minuette wave (i) is very clearly an impulse. Ratios within minuette wave (i) are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves iii and i, and subminuette wave v is just 0.006 short of 0.618 the length of subminuette wave iii.

Within minuette wave (ii) subminuette wave c is 0.031 short of equality with subminuette wave a.

At 20.820 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

The channel about minuette waves (i) and (ii) is an acceleration channel. I would expect minuette wave (iii) to break through the upper edge of this channel. At that stage I would be confident that a third wave is underway.

Silver Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th November, 2013

Last week’s analysis of Silver expected downward movement for a second wave correction which is exactly what has happened. With more of this structure now to analyse I can now calculate a target for it to end for you.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Silver daily 2013

Intermediate wave (B) is unfolding as a simple zigzag. Minor wave A subdivides as a five, and minor wave B is now a complete “three” (a double zigzag).

At 27.417 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. Minor wave A lasted 43 days, and minor wave B lasted a Fibonacci 34 days. I would expect minor wave C to last between 34 and 43 days, or thereabouts.

The parallel channel drawn here is Elliott’s technique for a correction. Draw the first trend line from the start of minor wave A to the end of minor wave B, then place a parallel copy upon the end of minor wave A. I will expect minor wave C to find resistance at the upper edge of this channel, and it is most likely to end there.

Within minor wave C minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 20.512.

Silver hourly 2013

Within minor wave C minute wave i is complete, and minute wave ii is unfolding as a deep zigzag which is incomplete. I will expect more downwards movement for another two to three days before minute wave ii is completed.

At 21.158 minuette wave (c) would reach 0.618 the length of minuette wave (a). This would bring minute wave ii to just below the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i at 21.496.

Ratios within minute wave (a) are: subminuette wave iii is 0.033 short of equality with subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of subminuette waves i or iii.

Minuette wave (b) is an expanded flat correction: subminuette wave a subdivides as a three; subminuette wave b subdivides as a three and is a 115% correction of subminuette wave a; subminuette wave c is just 0.021 short of 1.618 the length of subminuette wave a, and it subdivides as a five wave impulse.

We can now use Elliott’s technique to draw a channel about this downward zigzag of minute wave ii. Draw the first trend line from the start of minuette wave (a) to the end of minuette wave (b), then place a parallel copy upon the end of minuette wave (a). If it gets down that far I would expect minuette wave (c) to find support at the lower trend line, but I would expect it to be more likely to end mid way within this channel.

I would expect minuette wave (c) downward to take about two or three days to complete. When it is done I will expect a trend change and the resumption of the upward trend. The next wave up should be a third wave, and should show strong upward momentum.

When this channel is breached by subsequent upwards movement then I would have confidence minute wave ii is over, and that minute wave iii would have begun.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 20.512.