Tag Archives: technical analysis

US Fed Interest Rate Decision | 26th July, 2017

US Fed interest rate decision is due out at 2 p.m. EST on 26th of July, and this may move the Gold market strongly two hours before New York closes.

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Simple support and resistance may be used to tell in which direction Gold may move and where it may stop.

There is formidable resistance about 1,260. This was tested two sessions ago and has held. Now price has moved down and away with support from volume. This may hold if markets experience a price shock upon the release of the Fed decision. If that is the case, then Gold may whipsaw lower.

Next two areas of strong support are about 1,240 and 1,235. This may be about where Gold could end up for the short term.

This analysis is published @ 06:55 a.m. EST.

Elliott Channels on the USD Index | 21st July, 2017

The USD index has been trending lower for six months now. A simple wave count at the monthly chart level may indicate what is most likely to happen next.

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

The Elliott channel (maroon) about cycle wave III is drawn using the first technique: a trend line is drawn from the end of the first and third waves, then a parallel copy is placed upon the end of the second wave. The fourth wave is normally contained within that channel. The fifth wave ends either mid way or at the upper edge of the channel.

If the fourth wave breaches the channel, then it is redrawn using the second technique: a trend line from the ends of the second to fourth waves, with a parallel copy on the end of the third wave.

For both techniques, after a possible fifth wave makes a new high (or is a complete structure which is occasionally truncated), a subsequent breach of the channel in the opposite direction is an indication that the whole structure is over and the next wave is underway.

The Elliott channel (maroon) about cycle wave III is breached. This indicates that cycle wave III may be over and cycle wave IV may be underway.

To determine how cycle wave IV may unfold the guideline of alternation and an eye for the right look is used.

This analysis is published @ 06:30 a.m. EST.

Will Gold Backtest An Important Trend Line? | 18th July, 2017

This chart was last published on 9th of July showing a breach of an important trend line.

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Price is now bouncing up for another test. There is a little room still for a little more upwards movement, if price wants to come up to kiss the trend line.

Again, adding volume makes this simple trend line more powerful. The breach was supported by volume, but now the bounce is not. The volume profile is bearish, adding to confidence that price may now stay below the line.

This analysis is published @ 05:05 a.m. EST.

Drawing Bear Market Trend lines | 27th June, 2017

One of my favourite Technical Analysis texts is the classic “Technical Analysis of Stock Trends” by Magee. In this book Magee describes how to draw trend lines for bull and bear markets.

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

To draw a trend line in a bear market draw the line from the high to the first major swing high within the bear market. Extend the line outwards. Assume the bear market remains intact while price remains below the line. When upwards movement breaks above the trend line, it is an indication of a potential trend change from bear to bull.

My definition of a breach is a full candlestick above and not touching the trend line.

This technique works on all time frames.

This chart is on a monthly time frame and indicates that Gold may remain in the larger bear market, which began on September 2011.

This analysis is published @ 03:02 a.m. EST on 28th June, 2017.

Drawing Trend Lines? Simple is Best | 27th June, 2017

One of my favourite Technical Analysis texts is the classic “Technical Analysis of Stock Trends” by Magee. In this book Magee describes how to draw trend lines for bull and bear markets.

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

To draw a trend line in a bull market find the first two major swing lows, then draw a line across them. Extend the line out to the right. Assume the bull market remains intact while price remains above the line. When the line is properly breached, it is an indicator of a potential trend change from bull to bear.

This technique works on all time frames.

Gold began a series of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart after the low in December 2016. Within this upwards trend, the first two swing lows are taken as the 27th of January and the 10th of March. This trend line has now been tested eight times, with downwards movement for the last session of the 26th of June being the eighth test.

How Gold behaves at this trend line in the next few days will be a strong indicator. Does the bull run continue or is it over?

This analysis is published @ 03:43 a.m. EST.

On Balance Volume (Beyond Volume Basics) | 23rd June, 2017

Volume alone is not always a clear indicator. It is necessary to add another volume indicator, like On Balance Volume, to add depth to volume analysis and improve accuracy.

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

On Balance Volume can be used in two ways.

1. When On Balance Volume creates a range draw trend lines across its highs and lows. A breakout by On Balance Volume can sometimes precede a breakout from price, so On Balance Volume can be a leading indicator. Other times On Balance Volume may break out with or after price, it can then be a confirming indicator. Used this way On Balance Volume works very well.

2. Divergence between price and On Balance Volume can be used to indicate weakness and an impending trend change. This divergence can persist for some time prior to a trend change, so it is not useful in picking highs or lows.

Trend lines are drawn on On Balance Volume in the chart above. Resistance is in purple, support in yellow. A long term line is added in pink.

Bullish signals are noted in green arrows on price:

1. Halfway through an upwards trend On Balance Volume breaks above resistance which was prior support. This adds some confirmation to the trend. Traders may have more confidence in long positions.

2. A long term trend line which previously provided support, then resistance, is breached. This adds confidence in the upwards trend continuing.

3. A long term trend line is touched after some time. The bounce up and away is bullish.

4. A breach of resistance is a bullish signal. This illustrates that this technique does not always work. Price continued higher for only one more day before a major reversal.

Bearish signals are noted in red arrows on price:

1. A breach of support is a bearish signal, which should confirm the downwards trend. But a low is found the next day. Again, this technique works more often than it fails, but it can fail.

2. A break of a long term support line halfway through a downwards trend offers confidence in short positions.

3. Another break below a support line offers confidence in the downward trend.

In addition to breaches of trend lines, tests of support and resistance also offer signals.

Using On Balance Volume in conjunction with volume bars adds considerable depth to analysis.

This analysis is published @ 03:41 a.m. EST.

Volume Basics | 21st June, 2017

The activity of buyers is required for price to rise sustainably. This is indicated by increasing volume on upwards days.

The opposite isn’t necessarily true for a falling market. Price can fall due to an absence of buyers, just as it can with increasing activity of sellers. Rising volume with falling price is good to see as it supports the trend, but it is not necessary.

Does Gold’s price and volume conform to this basic principal of technical analysis?

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

1. This first rise in price is close to textbook perfect. The trend is well supported by volume. Volume does not increase in a straight line each day; some days are lighter than the prior day, but overall there is an increase.

2. This next rise is not so clear, but there is still overall an increase in volume as price rises. Volume is lighter than the prior stronger trend though, so the deep pullback that followed should not have been entirely unexpected.

3. As price falls initially volume declines and then shows some steady increase. The fall in price has support from increasing selling activity.

4 & 5. As price rises volume is not clearly rising. Sometimes the market can drift higher on light volume, so this type of rise is suspicious. The following deep decline again should not have been entirely unexpected.

6 & 7. As price falls volume declines. The market is falling of its own weight.

8. At the end of the fall volume begins to increase.

9. The start of the next rise has some support from volume by day 5. This shows an increase. However, the fifth day volume spike may also be a blow off top signalling an end to the rise temporarily. Blow off tops are not usually the very end; they usually signal a period of consolidation before the trend has a final rise.

The area between 9 and 10 is very unclear, with choppy overlapping price action generally trending higher and mostly flat volume.

10 & 11. As price falls volume declines. The market is mostly falling of its own weight.

When volume clearly supports a trend, then more confidence may be had in it. When volume does not support a trend, it is suspicious. Lack of support from volume will not tell when price will change direction, but it can warn that price may likely change direction and not just consolidate.

This analysis is published @ 03:51 a.m. EST.

Market Correlations – Statements and Assumptions | 20th June, 2017

Occasionally, members and visitors to this website make a statement along the lines of “market X is doing this, so how come you think Gold is going to go up / down?”.

Such statements are based upon unacknowledged assumptions that the markets have a correlation. The problem with assumptions is they can be wrong. So is there a simple mathematical technique to determine if two sets of data are correlated, either positively or negatively?

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Yes, there is: by looking at the correlation co-efficient range between two sets of data.

Correlation co-efficient ranges from -1 to +1. A perfect positive correlation will have a correlation co-efficient of +1. A perfect negative correlation will have a correlation co-efficient of -1.

Two sets of data which have a positive correlation will have a correlation co-efficient between +0.5 to +1. Two sets of data which have a negative correlation will have a correlation co-efficient between -0.5 to -1.

Any two sets of data which have a correlation co-efficient between +0.5 and -0.5 are not correlated.

Any two sets of data which have a correlation co-efficient that spends any time between +0.5 and -0.5 does not have a correlation which is reliable. This area of unreliability is shaded in the chart above for several markets which are often assumed to have a correlation to Gold price.

GDX, US Bonds, US Crude Oil, the US dollar index and even Silver do not have a reliable correlation with Gold price. All of these markets have correlation co-efficients which spend time in the shaded areas.

Even if these markets do sometimes exhibit a correlation with Gold, the point is that because this is not always true that when it is so it cannot be assumed to continue. The math shows that it does not.

To base an analysis of Gold on an assumption that another market is moving in a particular direction, and therefore Gold must move in a particular direction, is to base the analysis on assumptions and not data. Such assumptions are unreliable, and why you will not find them in my analyses.

To base an analysis of Gold on actual data and math is more likely to lead to accurate predictions and profitable trading. This does not mean the analysis will always be right, but it does mean the analysis will be based on facts and not assumptions.

This analysis is published @ 04:13 a.m. EST.

What Is Gold’s Next Move After US FED Interest Rate Decision on 14th June, 2017?

Technical analysis chart of Gold with Volume and On Balance Volume indicators, and support and resistance lines, may give guidance as to the direction Gold may take after FED Interest rate decision.

Gold Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The recent fall in price over the last three days does not have support from volume and this suggests a bounce should be expected here or very soon. Additionally, there is strong, bullish support for Gold’s price at about 1,260. These support the idea of upwards movement after the FED Interest rate decision.

However, the latest and now most important signal comes from On Balance Volume breaking below support. This is bearish.

Given that a technical analysis approach would expect Gold to move mostly in the direction of least resistance and away from greatest support, the expectation is for Gold to breakout upwards. But because of On Balance Volume’s bearish signal, any upside movement is expected to be relatively short lived.

Also, On Balance Volume supports my current Elliott wave count.

This analysis is published @ 03:30 a.m. EST.

Trading Room – 16th May, 2017

A big thank you to everyone for your comments and feedback and support. However, due to various circumstances this will be the last Trading Room post.

I will continue to watch several markets and will continue to post extra analysis, charts and trading recommendations for members in the comments section of the Gold analysis, where you will also find my Gold updates and a wealth of information and trading tips from other members.


Trading Room Closed Positions March 2017
Click table to enlarge.

This analysis is published @ 04:20 a.m. EST.

[Note: Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading Trading Room – 16th May, 2017