Monthly Archives: September 2013

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th September, 2013

Last analysis expected a completion of a small fourth wave triangle to be followed by upwards movement towards the short term target at 1,354.

The triangle completed as expected with sideways movement, and was followed by an upwards thrust which reached 1,352.90, just $1.10 short of the target.

Thereafter, price has turned lower for the next corrective wave.

The wave count remains the same.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th September, 2013

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th September, 2013

Last analysis expected more upwards movement for Friday which is what happened. Confidence in this wave count increased with price movement above 1,332.33.

The wave count remains the same.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th September, 2013

Silver Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th September, 2013

Last analysis expected upwards movement for Silver. The target was 26.09.

Price moved upwards and was 2.673 short of the target. It made a new high, then turned lower, and has been moving sideways for four days.

Downwards movement looks like a typically deep second wave correction. Price remains above the invalidation point on the hourly chart.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Silver daily 2013

A downwards zigzag is unfolding at primary wave degree. Within the zigzag intermediate wave (A) is complete. Intermediate wave (B) is an incomplete zigzag.

Within minor wave B the structure may be an almost complete zigzag, or this may only be minute wave a of a flat or double for minor wave B.

At 28.121 minor wave C would reach equality with minor wave A.

Within minor wave C no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 21.216.

Silver hourly 2013

Sideways movement for the last four days looks like a combination or double flat unfolding. It would be incomplete; one more final small wave down should complete it.

At this stage the combination looks like a double. When this second structure labeled subminuette wave y is completed the probability that the correction is complete will be extremely high. The only way it could continue would be as a very rare triple.

At 24.55 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. This target should be about 5 to 8 days away.

Minuette wave (ii) within minute wave iii may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 21.291.

US Oil Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Update – 26th September, 2013

From yesterday downwards movement was expected, and did happen. I can update the wave count slightly for you today with a channel to show where the next fourth wave should find resistance.

US Oil hourly 2013

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th September, 2013

Yesterday’s analysis expected upwards movement from gold for Thursday’s session. A slight new high was made before price turned lower. Price remains above the invalidation point on the hourly chart.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th September, 2013

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th September, 2013

Last week expected one final fifth wave before a trend change. That is not what happened. The trend change may have already occurred.

Oil has been a frustrating market to analyse for the last month or so. I am very keen to get it right this week!

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2013

Cycle wave b may be complete already, as a double zigzag. Primary wave X within it was a contracting triangle.

Downwards movement of the last week shows clearly on the monthly chart. If this candle closes down that shall be strong indication of a trend change.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Downwards movement has clearly breached the parallel channel on the daily chart. This is strong indication of a trend change.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (A) and (C).

Ratios within intermediate wave (c) are: minor wave 3 is 0.95 short of 1.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minor waves 1 and 3.

Minor wave 4 may have been a flat correction with a truncated minor wave C.

Within primary wave 1 of cycle wave c downwards no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 112.24.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within recent downwards movement the middle of a third wave may have just passed.

Subminuette wave iii is just 0.62 short of 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

At 99.75 subminuette wave v would reach equality in length with subminuette wave i. Subminuette wave i lasted 3.25 days. This target may be about three days away.

At 97.96 minuette wave (iii) would reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i). This gives a short term target range of 1.79.

I have drawn an acceleration channel about minute waves i through to iii. The channel should be breached towards the end of minute wave iii. When this channel is breached I will have some more confidence in this wave count.

While minuette wave (iii) is incomplete subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 105.74.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th September, 2013

Last analysis expected more upwards movement, which is exactly what has happened.

The wave counts remain the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

There are still several possible structures for primary wave 4. So far we have a three down from the high at 1,433.83. This three down is less than 90% the length of intermediate wave (W) so it cannot be a B wave within a flat over there. This structure may be a double zigzag or double combination. In a double combination the second structure labeled intermediate wave (Y) may be either a flat or triangle.

It is most likely at this stage that primary wave 4 is continuing as a double zigzag rather than a combination, because combinations commonly have X waves which are deeper than this one is. Intermediate wave (Y) is most likely to be a zigzag.

Primary wave 2 was a deep 68% regular flat correction lasting 54 weeks. Given the guideline of alternation we may expect primary wave 4 to continue for longer than it has so far, possibly for another nine weeks to last a Fibonacci 21 (give or take one week either side of this). If it completed as a double zigzag there would be nice alternation in structure with primary wave 2.

Primary wave 4 has already passed the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio, so it may end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of primary wave 3 at 1,529.97. It should find resistance at the upper edge of the parallel channel drawn here using Elliott’s first technique.

When I know where minor waves A and B within primary wave Y have ended then I can use the ratio between minor waves A and C to calculate a target for upwards movement to end. I cannot do that yet.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Upwards movement continues as expected, and is very far from being done yet.

Minute wave iii must make a new high above the end of minute wave i at 1,375.16. The target remains the same. At 1,441 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

So far there may be two first and second waves completed. Within minuette wave (iii) subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated at minuette wave degree with movement below 1,316.72. If this wave count is invalidated with downwards movement (before a new high is in place above 1,338.18) then the invalidation point would move down to the start of minute wave iii at 1,305.90.

I will not calculate a target yet for minuette wave (iii); if it is extending it may not have a Fiboancci ratio with minuette wave (i). When the middle of it is finished I will have two wave degrees to calculate a shorter term target for you.

Minute wave iii may take about five to eight days in total to complete.

Alternate Daily Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily alternate 2013

I have tried to see as many alternates as I can. This wave count is possible but it has problems of proportion which make it look odd. I will publish it as a slim outlying possibility. I would only use it if it is confirmed with movement below 1,291.95.

If primary wave 4 is over then it lasted only 9 weeks, compared to primary wave 2 which lasted 53 weeks. This gives the monthly chart the wrong look.

Within recent downwards movement minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,416.45. If price moves above this point next week I would have more confidence in the main wave count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th September, 2013

Yesterday’s analysis expected the completion of a small triangle to be followed by a sharp downwards thrust. The update for yesterday gave a target for this downwards thrust to end at 1,305. It ended at 1,305.90.

We now have a clear channel breach on the hourly chart so I can calculate a target for the next wave upwards with some confidence.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th September, 2013

Gold Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd September, 2013 Update

This is a very quick update (seeing as I’m up managing the new membership) for the hourly chart for Gold.

Continue reading Gold Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd September, 2013 Update

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd September, 2013

The small channel on the hourly chart was breached, but price has moved sideways not higher.

It looks like we may be seeing a small triangle complete. When this is done we should see a brief sharp downward thrust, to be followed by the resumption of upwards movement.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd September, 2013

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th September, 2013

Last analysis had two hourly wave counts. The alternate was confirmed quickly with movement below 1,359.20. The alternate hourly wave count expected more downwards movement to the most likely target at 1,323.12. Friday’s session reached down to 1,324.94. A breach of the small channel on the hourly chart would indicate downwards movement is over. The next wave up should see an increase in momentum.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

There are still several possible structures for primary wave 4. So far we have a three down from the high at 1,433.83. This three down is less than 90% the length of intermediate wave (W) so it cannot be a B wave within a flat over there. This structure may be a double zigzag or double combination. In a double combination the second structure labeled intermediate wave (Y) may be either a flat or triangle.

It is most likely at this stage that primary wave 4 is continuing as a double zigzag. Intermediate wave (Y) is most likely to be a zigzag.

Primary wave 2 was a deep 68% regular flat correction lasting 54 weeks. Given the guideline of alternation we may expect primary wave 4 to continue for longer than it has so far, possibly for another 10 weeks to last a Fibonacci 21 (give or take one week either side of this). If it completed as a double zigzag there would be nice alternation in structure with primary wave 2.

Primary wave 4 has already passed the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio, so it may end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of primary wave 3 at 1,529.97. It should find resistance at the upper edge of the parallel channel drawn here using Elliott’s first technique.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

So far there may be a five wave impulse upwards for a first wave, followed by a typically deep second wave.

Ratios within minute wave i are: minuette waves (iii) and (i) have no Fibonacci ratio to each other, and minuette wave (v) is just 0.03 longer than equality with minuette wave (i).

So far within minute wave ii the structure has a corrective wave count and subdivides into a three wave zigzag. Minuette wave (c) so far is 0.21 short of 0.236 the length of minuette wave i. However, there is not enough movement up at the end of Friday’s session to confirm that minute wave ii is over.

The parallel channel drawn about minute wave ii is a best fit. When this channel is clearly breached by upwards movement then I will have some confidence that minute wave ii is most likely over and minute wave iii is underway.

At 1,459 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. If minute wave ii moves lower this target must move correspondingly lower also.

It is very likely minute wave ii is over here because minute wave ii may be a completed corrective structure, is in proportion to minute wave i, and has ended at the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i.

The next upwards movement should see some increase in momentum.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,291.95.

Daily Alternate Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily Alternate 2013

I have tried to see as many alternates as I can. This wave count is possible but it has problems of proportion which make it look odd. I will publish it as a slim outlying possibility. I would only use it if it is confirmed with movement below 1,291.95.

If primary wave 4 is over then it lasted only 9 weeks, compared to primary wave 2 which lasted 53 weeks. This gives the monthly chart the wrong look.

Within recent downwards movement minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,416.45. If price moves above this point next week I would have more confidence in the main wave count.