Tag Archives: daily eilliot analysis

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th March, 2017

Silver has continued lower over the last few days as expected from last week’s analysis. The target remains the same.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th March, 2017

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 2nd March, 2017

Last week expected a pullback for Silver.

Price moved higher for three days. Thereafter, it has turned down strongly.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 2nd March, 2017

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd February, 2017

Last week expected a pullback for Silver.

Price has so far for the week moved sideways, with a lower high and a lower low.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd February, 2017

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th February, 2017

Last week again expected upwards movement for Silver, which is again what has happened.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th February, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th February, 2017

Upwards movement for the main Elliott wave hourly chart was expected to reach a target at 1,240.

Price moved higher as expected to reach 1,241.99.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th February, 2017

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th February, 2017

Last week expected that upwards movement would continue for Silver. This is exactly what has happened.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th February, 2017

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th January, 2017

Last analysis expected that a correction had begun for Silver. Price has moved lower for the week as expected, finding strong resistance so far at the upper trend line.

Summary: A deep correction may have begun now for Silver. The target is 16.26, but not below 15.638.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly chart is here.

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

Silver weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The upwards wave labelled primary wave W is seen here as a complete zigzag. It will also fit as an impulse and this is seen on the alternate weekly chart below.

If primary wave W is a zigzag, then within intermediate wave (A) the correction labelled minor wave 4 is a rare running flat. This reduces the probability of this wave count. For this reason the alternate below is published. It makes no difference to expected direction nor to the target.

The channel about primary wave X is providing resistance at this time. This wave count expects that upon the next test this channel should be breached.

ALTERNATE WEEKLY CHART

Silver weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Upwards movement labelled here as primary wave A will fit neatly as a five wave impulse. Within primary wave A, it is intermediate wave (5) that is extended.

The problem of a running flat is resolved. Although this is labelled as an alternate wave count, it may have a higher probability than the main wave count. But it makes no difference at this stage to either expected direction or the target calculation.

Primary wave B is a complete double zigzag.

Primary wave C is most likely to move at least slightly above the end of primary wave A to avoid a truncation. The most likely target for primary wave C would be equality in length with primary wave A.

DAILY CHART

Silver daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Price may have found strong resistance at the upper edge of the gold best fit channel.

A five up may now be complete. This may be minor wave 1. Or the degree of labelling may be moved up one degree and it may be intermediate wave (1) or (A).

Following a five up the next three down may not move beyond its start below 15.638.

The most likely target for minor wave 2 would be the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 at 16.26.

Minor wave 1 lasted a Fibonacci 21 days exactly. Minor wave 2 may be expected to last a Fibonacci 21 or 34 days; corrections are often more time consuming than the impulses they correct.

Minor wave 2 is most likely to subdivide as a zigzag. If it is a zigzag, then minute wave a would subdivide as an impulse.

Along the way down, corrections should continue to find strong resistance at the upper edge of the best fit gold channel.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Silver Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

For the first three weeks of upwards movement, after the low in December 2016, volume supported the rise in price. The last upwards week completed with a decline in volume and a long upper wick, both of which are bearish. This supports the Elliott wave count.

On Balance Volume is now at resistance. This may assist to halt the rise in price. This also supports the Elliott wave count.

DAILY CHART

Silver Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The last two days completed red candlesticks. Overall, price moved lower with an increase in volume. This offers small support for the Elliott wave count.

ADX is declining, indicating the market is not currently trending. The +DX line has just crossed below the -DX line indicating a potential trend change from up to down, but the black ADX line must show an increase for a new downwards trend to be indicated.

ATR continues overall to decline. Like Gold, this is normal for both a counter trend movement and the first wave within a new trend.

RSI did not reach overbought, but Stochastics did and exhibited some divergence with price while extreme. This is common prior to trend changes, but it cannot pinpoint exactly when price will turn.

Overall, this classic technical analysis well supports the current Elliott wave count.

This analysis is published @ 12:13 a.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th January, 2017

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th January, 2017

The main Elliott wave count was confirmed when Silver made a new high above 17.220 and the alternate Elliott wave count was invalidated.

There is only one Elliott wave count now left for Silver at this time.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th January, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th January, 2017

Price has moved lower and remains within the channel drawn on both the hourly and daily Elliott wave charts.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th January, 2017

Natural Gas Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th January, 2017

Summary: Natural Gas is in an upwards trend. The last correction ended at support on the 9th of January. The target for upwards movement to end is about 4.304.

MAIN ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

Natural Gas Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This weekly wave count for Natural Gas begins at February 2014 candlestick. Data from BarChart does not go back in history far enough to begin the count earlier.

From February 2014 candlestick, a large downwards wave is complete to the low on February 2016. This subdivides neatly as a five wave impulse. If this piece of the analysis is correct, then it should be followed by a three up that may not make a new high above 6.489.

This main wave count sees the three up as incomplete. It should be expected that this main wave count is more likely while price remains within the Elliott channel. Assume the trend remains the same until proven otherwise.

DAILY CHART

Natural Gas Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave b is seen as an incomplete zigzag. So far, within the zigzag, primary waves A and B are complete. Primary wave C is incomplete and continuing upwards.

So far only intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete within primary wave C. Intermediate wave (2) is a common expanded flat correction. This wave count now expects to see an increase in upwards momentum as a third wave for intermediate wave (3) unfolds.

A target for intermediate wave (3) is not calculated because it does not fit with the higher target of primary wave C.

Within intermediate wave (3), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 3.099. If this main wave count is invalidated, then the alternate below would be used.

ALTERNATE ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

Natural Gas Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This wave count is identical to the main wave count up to the end of primary wave B within cycle wave b.

It is possible that primary wave C is a complete five wave impulse, which means it is possible that cycle wave b is over.

DAILY CHART

Natural Gas Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave C must be seen as a complete five wave impulse. To do that it does not have as good a look as the main wave count for this piece of movement.

A new high above 3.903 would invalidate this alternate wave count and that would add confidence to the main wave count.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

Natural Gas Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Natural Gas is in an upwards trend. The short term average is above the mid term, which is above the long term. At this stage, all three averages are pointing upwards.

ADX disagrees though. It is declining, indicating the market is consolidating and not trending. Price has been constrained within a large range from about 3.105 to 3.705, areas of prior strong resistance and support.

The upwards trend reached an extreme level at the high on the 9th of December with ADX above 35 and above both the directional lines. Thereafter, price has moved sideways in a large range. This has dropped ADX down to the low 20s, giving room again for a trend to continue.

While ADX remains pointing downwards, one approach to this market would be to use support and resistance lines on price in conjunction with Stochastics to indicate when each swing ends and the next begins. At this time, price has turned up from support and Stochastics has turned up from oversold. It is reasonable to expect price to continue overall upwards from here to reach resistance. If Stochastics reaches overbought at that time, then the upwards swing may end.

Two of the three last upwards days show some increase in volume. This supports the idea that price may continue higher at least to resistance here.

Price has turned up after reaching the extreme lower edge of Bollinger Bands. With price now at the mid line of BBs, watch it carefully here. This may offer resistance.

Finally, the strongest piece of technical analysis here is On Balance Volume. The break above the purple resistance line should be taken seriously. This is a bullish signal. OBV often leads price when using trend lines.

This analysis is published @ 12:55 a.m. EST on 17th January, 2017.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th January, 2017

Silver has moved higher with some support from volume. The Elliott wave counts are the same.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th January, 2017