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** The prices you see on the MotiveWave website are regular prices, but you will see the special 20% off Summer Sale discount applied during the purchase process before you are asked to pay. If, for some reason, you do not see the discount on the checkout page, please contact MotiveWave before purchasing and before the end of the sale.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th June, 2014

Movement above 19.824 and then 19.996 invalidated the main wave count and confirmed the alternate.

Silver has now finished its barrier triangle, and the next movement should be a five wave structure downwards. I will use the channels on the hourly chart to indicate when this trend change has occurred.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Silver weekly 2014

The triangle for intermediate wave (B) is now a complete barrier triangle. Within it the overshoot for minor wave E of the B-D trend line indicates that upwards movement is either over here or should be very soon.

At 10.85 intermediate wave (C) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 14.07 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with the widest part of the triangle. This gives a wide target zone. When there is structure within intermediate wave (C) to analyse I will be able to use minor wave degree to add to the target calculation and narrow it down. I cannot do that yet.

Intermediate wave (C) may last about 18 weeks, if it is 0.618 the duration of intermediate wave (A).

If intermediate wave (B) moves higher (and the trend change is unconfirmed so it may do so) then it may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A) at 34.515.

Silver daily 2014

The triangle structure is correct and now either complete here or extremely close to completion.

I know members and visitors will comment that this wave count does not fit with Gold. I disagree. Gold expects downwards movement for a B wave at minor degree and this may coincide with Silver’s first wave down at minor degree. When Gold expects a following upwards wave for a C wave at minor degree this may coincide with a deep second wave correction for minor wave 2 on Silver. They most certainly can move together. However, Gold and Silver do not always have their highs and lows at the same point in time. Silver tends to lead Gold.

If this wave count is correct then intermediate wave (C) should begin either here or extremely soon. Once there is some indication of this trend change on the hourly chart with channel breaches I would have some more confidence in this wave count.

Minor wave E has overshot the A-C trend line. E waves of triangles most commonly undershoot the A-C trend line, but when they do not then they tend to overshoot the trend line (they do not end right at the trend line). This gives the triangle structure a typical look and indicates it should be ending about now.

While the trend change is not indicated on the hourly chart the invalidation point remains at 22.224. Minor wave E may not move beyond the end of minor wave C.

Silver hourly 2014

Within minor wave E zigzag I have drawn a parallel channel about minute wave c using Elliott’s second technique: draw the first trend line from the lows of minuette waves (ii) to (iv), then place a parallel copy upon the end of minuette wave (iii). This trend channel is overshot by a strong fifth wave which is typical behaviour for a commodity market. When this channel is breached by downwards movement I will have confidence that minor wave E is over and there has been a trend change to the downside.

In the first instance a breach of the channel containing minuette wave (v) would provide earliest indication of this trend change.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves a and c within minor wave E zigzag.

Ratios within minute wave c are: minuette wave (iii) is 0.081 short of 4.236 the length of minuette wave (i), and there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette wave (v) and either of minuette waves (i) or (iii).

Ratios within minuette wave (v) are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves iii and i, and subminuette wave v is so far 0.066 longer than equality with subminuette wave i.

The question mark next to the end of intermediate wave (B) indicates that it is not clear yet if this upwards movement is over. I want to see the channels on the hourly chart clearly breached before I have confidence in this trend change. If this wave count is correct then this trend change should happen within 72 hours, probably sooner rather than later.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th September, 2013

Last analysis expected upwards movement, but required a trend channel breach of the channel on the hourly chart before confidence could be had in a trend change. We have the breach now and a trend change confirmed, but price moved lower first.

This is exactly why I use trend channels; they are an integral part of Elliott wave analysis.

The wave count is mostly the same. A target can now be calculated for upwards movement to end.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

A downwards zigzag is unfolding at primary wave degree. Within the zigzag intermediate wave (A) is complete. Intermediate wave (B) is an incomplete zigzag.

Within minor wave B the structure may be an almost complete zigzag, or this may only be minute wave a of a flat or double for minor wave B.

A parallel channel drawn about minor wave B is now clearly breached by upwards movement on the hourly chart, with an overshoot here on the daily chart. This channel breach indicates that minor wave B is over and now minor wave C is underway.

At 28.121 minor wave C would reach equality with minor wave A.

Within minor wave C no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 21.216.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within minor wave B minute wave c is just 0.11 short of 1.618 the length of minute wave a.

Within minor wave C minute wave i is probably complete. Minute wave ii may be complete or it may continue further as a flat correction. If it moves lower then the target for minute wave iii must move correspondingly lower also.

At 26.09 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 21.216.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th September, 2013

Last analysis expected Oil to move higher for a final fifth wave. This is not what happened. Price moved sideways then lower to breach the invalidation point on the hourly chart. The daily chart remains valid.

The wave count remains mostly the same. A final fifth wave upwards is still required to complete this structure.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2013

Cycle wave b is incomplete, and is unfolding as a double zigzag. Primary wave X within it was a contracting triangle.

Extend the triangle trend lines outwards. The point in time at which they cross over may see a trend change, and this may be where primary wave Y ends.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

There is not normally a Fibonacci ratio between subwaves W and Y within doubles. A more reliable way to calculate a target for this to end is using the ratio between intermediate waves (A) and (C) within the second zigzag of the double.

At 122.55 intermediate wave (C) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 120.84 minor wave 5 would reach 2.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 146.73.

The trend lines for the contracting triangle shown on the monthly chart will cross over in 2 or 3 days time. The trend lines are shown at the bottom of this chart. Place an extended vertical line at this point and look for a trend change at that time. Be very careful to draw the triangle trend lines accurately from A to C and B to D of the triangle, as shown on the monthly chart.

Within the ending diagonal for minor wave 5, minute wave iv may not move below 103.51.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minute wave iv may have continued further sideways as a contracting triangle. Minuette wave (c) within the zigzag of minute wave iv breached the last invalidation point on last analysis hourly chart, which had expected minute wave iv to be over already.

Within the ending diagonal of minor wave 5 minute wave iv is most likely to be at least as long as minute wave iii because the diagonal is expanding. It is most likely upwards movement will move above 113.76.

Minute wave v must unfold as a zigzag. Within the zigzag minuette wave (b) may not move below the start of minuette wave (a). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 104.96.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th September, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected some downwards movement towards a short term target at 22.463 to 22.481 before a trend change and upwards movement.

Price did move a little lower, but not as low as expected, falling 0.239 short of the target. We do not have confirmation of the trend change yet.

When the parallel channel on the hourly chart is breached by upwards movement then I shall have more confidence that the upwards trend has resumed.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

A downwards zigzag is unfolding at primary wave degree. Within the zigzag intermediate wave (A) is complete. Intermediate wave (B) is an incomplete zigzag.

Within minor wave B the structure may be an almost complete zigzag, or this may only be minute wave a of a flat or double for minor wave B.

Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 18.215.

SILVER Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within minor wave B the structure may be seen as complete. There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves a and b of this zigzag.

Ratios within minute wave c are: minuette wave (iii) is 0.043 longer than equality with minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 0.011 short of 0.236 the length of minuette wave (i).

Use Elliott’s technique to draw a parallel channel about minor wave B. Draw the first trend line from the start of minute wave a to the end of minute wave b, then place a parallel copy upon the end of minute wave a. When this channel is clearly breached by upwards movement then we shall have confirmation that the upwards trend has resumed.

At 27.039 minor wave C would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave A. Upwards movement may find resistance at the upper edge of the blue channel drawn about intermediate wave (B) on the daily chart.

While price remains well within the channel on the hourly chart we must accept the possibility that minor wave B may continue lower, but it may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 18.215.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th September, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected upwards movement in a zigzag structure which is what has happened. The upwards zigzag is incomplete.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Cycle wave b is incomplete, and is unfolding as a double zigzag. Primary wave X within it was a contracting triangle.

Extend the triangle trend lines outwards. The point in time at which they cross over may see a trend change, and this may be where primary wave Y ends.

There is not normally a Fibonacci ratio between subwaves W and Y within doubles. A more reliable way to calculate a target for this to end is using the ratio between intermediate waves (A) and (C) within the second zigzag of the double.

At 122.55 intermediate wave (C) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 120.84 minor wave 5 would reach 2.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 146.73.

Within the ending diagonal for minor wave 5, minute wave iv may not move below 103.51.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minor wave 5 is most likely unfolding as an ending expanding diagonal which is incomplete.

Within the diagonal all the subwaves must subdivide into zigzags, including the third wave. The fourth wave of a diagonal should overlap back into first wave price territory, but may not move beyond the end of the second wave.

Minute wave iii is longer than minute wave i, and minute wave iv is longer than minute wave ii. The diagonal is expanding. This would expect minute wave v to be longer than equality with minute wave iii which would be achieved at 114.27. We should expect upwards movement to reach this point at least.

I have seen diagonals sometimes have a third wave which is still the longest, so this minimum is a guideline with a good probability but if it is not reached, as long as the subdivisions are correct, the diagonal may still be valid.

Within the final upwards zigzag for minute wave v the structure is incomplete. Within it minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 105.51.

If price does move below 105.51 then it may be possible (but at this stage unlikely) that minute wave iv is continuing. The invalidation point moves down to 103.51.

Silver Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th September, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected a little more upwards movement from Silver before a minor wave B downwards began. We did not see upwards movement; price just moved lower in what is so far a clear three wave structure.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Silver weekly 2013

Within the first zigzag in the double, primary wave W, intermediate wave (C) is just 0.67 longer than intermediate wave (A).

Primary wave X is a completed regular contracting triangle.

Primary wave Y is incomplete.

Silver daily 2013

Within primary wave Y intermediate wave (A) is complete. Intermediate wave (B) is an incomplete zigzag.

Ratios within minor wave A are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is 0.06 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave iii.

Within minor wave B the structure may be an almost complete zigzag, or this may only be minute wave a of a flat or double for minor wave B.

Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 18.215.

Silver hourly 2013

Within minor wave B minute wave a is a completed five wave impulse, minute wave b is a completed zigzag, and minute wave c is an incomplete impulse.

There are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minuette waves (i), (iii) and (v) within minute wave a.

Within minute wave b minuette wave (c) is just 0.005 longer than 0.382 the length of minuette wave (a).

Within minute wave c minuette wave (iii) is 0.081 longer than 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i). We may not see a Fibonacci ratio between minuette wave (v) and either of (iii) or (i). The target is best calculated one degree higher.

At 22.463 minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a. This is close to 22.481 where minor wave B would reach the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave a. This gives us a 0.018 target zone for a little more downwards movement.

Within minute wave c minuette wave (v) may be unfolding as an ending expanding diagonal. Within it subminuette wave iv may yet move a little higher, but may not move beyond the end of subminuette wave ii at 23.652.

When minor wave B is complete we may calculate a target upwards for minor wave C. It is most likely to reach equality with minor wave A at 25.120 in length.