Downwards movement was expected for the main wave count. I have a new alternate wave count for you.
Last analysis on 26th February expected more upwards movement towards a target at 105.80 to 107.63. Price moved up to 105.21 where it turned.
In the short term I am looking for a second wave correction to show soon, and its arrival will be confirmed with a breach of the channel on the hourly chart. In the mid to long term I am expecting a continuation of downwards movement towards 72.53. This target may be met in about 55 days.
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The bigger picture sees US Oil in a downwards correction which is incomplete. The correction is subdividing as a zigzag. Within the zigzag cycle waves a and b are complete. I would expect cycle wave c to find support, and end, at the lower edge of the parallel channel.
If the wave count is invalidated at the daily chart level then cycle wave b may be continuing higher. It may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a at 146.73.
The daily chart shows all of the start of cycle wave c downwards.
Minor wave 1 subdivides perfectly as an impulse. Minor wave 2 is now complete as an expanded flat correction which is a 66% correction of minor wave 1.
Within minor wave 2 minute wave b is 106% the length of minute wave a, and minute wave c is 0.59 short of 1.618 the length of minute wave a.
At 72.53 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.
Minor wave 1 lasted 65 days and minor wave 2 lasted 67 days. If minor wave 3 is of about the same duration it may end in another 55 days or thereabouts.
The channel drawn about minor waves 1 and 2 is a base channel. Minor wave 3 downwards should clearly and strongly breach the lower edge of the channel. Along the way down upwards corrections should find resistance about the upper edge of the channel.
Within minor wave 3 minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 105.21.
The hourly chart shows all of the beginning of minor wave 3. So far it is possible that minute wave i is complete, but this needs to be confirmed with a breach of the channel containing it. Draw the channel from the lows labeled minuette waves (i) to (iii), then place a parallel copy upon the high labeled minuette wave (ii).
If minute wave i is complete then within it Fibonacci ratios are: minuette wave (iii) is 0.29 longer than equality with minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is just 0.02 longer than 0.382 the length of minuette wave (i).
If the channel is breached by upwards movement then I would expect minute wave ii to reach up to about 102.21. It may not move beyond the start of minute wave i at 105.21.
Monday began with a little more upwards movement before price turned lower to complete a red candlestick.
Upwards movement continued as expected. The target of 1,387 to 1,390 has been met at 1,388.10. I have a main and an alternate hourly wave count for you today.
The short term target at 1,381 has not yet been met, but price has moved higher as expected.
A fourth wave correction has ended as expected, slightly below the target. A final fifth wave up has begun which should unfold over the next few days.
Click on charts to enlarge.
The new downwards trend from the all time high at 49.825 subdivides so far as an incomplete double zigzag.
The first wave down is a three labeled primary wave W.
The two structures are joined by a “three” in the opposite direction labeled primary wave X. Primary wave X is a contracting triangle.
The second zigzag downwards is unfolding. Within it intermediate wave (B) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 34.515.
Within intermediate wave (B) minor wave A subdivides as a five wave impulse. Minor wave B is an incomplete zigzag.
The light aqua blue trend line may provide some resistance to upwards movement.
Minute wave iv is a complete double combination: flat – X – zigzag. It lasted 14 days and is in proportion to minute wave ii.
At 25.54 minute wave v would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. At 25.49 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. This gives a 5 cent target zone for upwards movement to end.
The upwards sloping pink channel is drawn using Elliott’s first technique. For this wave count I would expect Silver to breach the upper edge. I am expecting a fast moving and strong fifth wave up.
Minor wave C is very likely to at least move above the end of minor wave A at 25.118 to avoid a truncation.
So far to the upside it looks like there is a series of three overlapping first and second waves. This indicates we may see an increase in upwards momentum over the next few days.
Micro wave 2 may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 20.814.
The short term target at 1,364 was met and passed. Upwards movement was expected.
The main wave count expected upwards movement which is what we have seen.
The wave count remains the same.
Summary: I expect that we have seen a trend change back to the upside. Movement above 1.353.07 would confirm this. The mid term target is at 1,390 for upwards movement to end.
This analysis is published about 04:15 p.m. EST. Click on charts to enlarge.
Main Wave Count.
Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete.
Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat. Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because it is likely to show structural alternation with primary wave 2.
The first upwards wave within primary wave 4 labeled intermediate wave (W) subdivides as a three wave zigzag. Primary wave 4 cannot be an unfolding zigzag because the first wave within a zigzag, wave A, must subdivide as a five.
Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be completing as a double zigzag because intermediate wave (X) is a deep 99% correction of intermediate wave (W). Double zigzags commonly have shallow X waves because their purpose it to deepen a correction when the first zigzag does not move price deep enough.
Primary wave 4 is most likely to be completing as a double combination: zigzag – X – second structure. The second structure labeled intermediate wave (Y) may be either a flat or a triangle. For both these structures minor wave A must be a three.
Minor wave A is an incomplete double zigzag. The second zigzag in the double is incomplete. At this stage there is a morning doji star candlestick pattern forming at the bottom of minuette wave (b) within minute wave y. If this pattern holds while the current daily candlestick closes we shall have more confirmation of a trend change at 1,328.18. A morning star pattern is one of the more reliable candlestick patterns.
Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.
Minuette wave (b) subdivides as a complete double combination: zigzag – X – regular flat.
Movement above 1,353.07 would confirm this trend change. While price remains below this point the alternate wave count will remain valid.
Within the new upwards trend micro waves 1 and 2 are complete. At 1,364 micro wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of micro wave 1. This short term target may be met within the next 24 hours.
At 1,390 minuette wave (c) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a). This is the ratio I am using to calculate the target because minuette wave (a) was very short, and it would see the ratios of A and C waves within the two zigzags of the double show alternation. This target may be met in about one to two weeks.
Within micro wave 3 no second wave correction may move beyond its start. Micro wave 3 is invalidated with movement below 1,337.78.
If price moves below 1,337.78 it may be that micro wave 2 is continuing further sideways. Micro wave 2 may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1. This wave count is fully invalidated with movement below 1,328.18.
Alternate Wave Count.
If minor wave A is complete then minor wave B has begun. This wave count now diverges with the expectation for Silver significantly enough to reduce its probability, while the main wave count is in line with my expectations for Silver.
This wave count requires a clear breach of the pink channel about minor wave A for confirmation.
This wave count sees minuette wave (iii) over at 1,343.35 and minor wave A may be complete.
Within minor wave B the first 5-3-5 downwards is incomplete. At 1,316 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).
This wave count requires confirmation below 1,328.18. At that point the main wave count would be fully invalidated.
Subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,353.07.
Alternate Daily Wave Count – Triangle.
It is also possible that primary wave 4 may continue as a regular contracting (or barrier) triangle.
This wave count has a good probability. It does not diverge from the main wave count and it will not diverge for several weeks yet.
Triangles take up time and move price sideways. If primary wave 4 unfolds as a triangle then I would expect it to last months rather than weeks.
Price moved lower as expected, but failed to reach the short term targets at 1,319 to 1,316. Downwards movement reached only to 1,328.
Both wave counts are still valid but I favour the main wave count strongly.
The data for this market has many gaps, and the structures are not entirely typical looking Elliott wave structures. Although there are some Fibonacci ratios, they are not as prevalent as ratios within Gold. I am only able to import daily data, and I cannot check subdivisions on lower time frames.
While I expect my analysis of GDX will be useful to you, please note that it may not have as good an accuracy rate as what I can achieve for Gold.
Overall the structures and the wave count will be quite different from Gold. Although it looks these two markets have major turns together, the subdivisions within each are quite different.
Downwards movement has invalidated one of the three wave counts. The other two are still viable (with some adjustment). I now have a clear price point which will differentiate the two wave counts for next week, and I now judge one to have a higher probability than the other.
Upwards movement remains below the invalidation point for the first wave count. Both wave counts remain valid and both remain mostly the same.
I do have a new third wave count for you today.
Every technical analysis method has its periods of uncertainty. Elliott wave is no different. I do not often publish many differing wave counts for you, but today I must.
To make today’s analysis clearer I will list pros and cons for each wave count.
And, as always, members should use their own technical analysis alongside this Elliott wave analysis to corroborate one wave count over the others.
Last analysis expected a three wave movement upwards for an X wave which is exactly what happened. The structure of the current correction is incomplete. I would expect overall another six days minimum of choppy overlapping movement.
Click on charts to enlarge.
Minute wave iv may be unfolding as a double combination in order to show structural alternation with minute wave ii. So far within the combination the first structure, minuette wave (w), is an expanded flat correction.
Sideways movement continues. Minute wave iv is incomplete.
Minuette wave (x) unfolded as expected as an upwards zigzag.
Overall I expect more very choppy overlapping movement for minute wave iv for about another six days minimum, but it may last longer. It may find support at the lower end of the pink parallel channel.
Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 20.359.
Minuette wave (w) subdivides perfectly as an expanded flat correction.
Minuette wave (y) may be either a flat, zigzag or triangle correction (in order of probability). If it is a flat then minute wave iv would be a double flat. If it is a zigzag or triangle then minute wave iv would be a double combination. The purpose of double flats and double combinations is the same: to move price sideways and take up time.
Within minuette wave (y) so far the first downwards wave of subminuette wave a looks best as a zigzag. This indicates that minuette wave (y) may be most likely a flat correction or possibly a triangle. Either structure would be expected to move price overall sideways for a few days yet.
If minuette wave (y) is a flat correction then within it subminuette wave b must reach a minimum of 90% the length of subminuette wave a at 21.6575.
If minuette wave (y) is a triangle there is no minimum upwards point that subminuette wave b must reach.
The whole structure for minute wave iv, whether it be a double flat or a double combination, should move price sideways. This means the second structure in the double is likely to end about the same level as the first. Minuette wave (y) is likely to end about 21.002 or a little below this point, but not significantly below.